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FinalAngel Stadium
Twins72-83
8-0
Angels60-95
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIN0020123008
LAA0000000000

Top model pick, graded

Won

No 9th-inning draw 34¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Moneyline anchors are balanced: Twins 51¢ / Angels 49.5¢, normalized to roughly 50.7% / 49.3%.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-7 on this game · −5% return

  1. No 9th-inning draw
    +194%Won

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchors are balanced: Twins 51¢ / Angels 49.5¢, normalized to roughly 50.7% / 49.3%.
    • Full-game total anchor is 8.5, with Over 47¢ / Under 53.5¢; fitted scoring environment is roughly 8.4 runs.
    • 2025 MLB finals were right-skewed but centered at 8 runs (mean 8.89; median 8; 48.7% reached 9+), supporting a roughly 0.93-run flat-inning baseline.
    • The 9th inning is a thin, specialized rung; late-game bullpen and walk-off mechanics can differ sharply from a flat-rate baseline.
  2. Total runs over 8.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US Under 8.5 costs 53.5%; OPEN, tradable, both sides quoted, prices sum 1.00.
    • Ledger: LAA −0.50 runs (.3051 xwOBA vs R); MIN 0.00 (.3190); derived mean 7.50, SD 4.3.
    • Ryan Johnson has zero prior starts in the profile; this is Partial coverage, not Full.
  3. Ryan Johnson over 7 strikeoutsFavorite
    +19%Won

    Taken at 84¢ on Kalshi

    High LimboUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last 10 K counts: 6, 4, 2, 5, 4, 2, 2, 1, 5, 2; median 3, min 1, trailing max 6, season max 8.
    • Path A High Limbo: 26 season starts, 7.54 season K/9, and the 7+ bar is above the trailing-10 maximum of 6.
    • Under 7 cleared in 10/10 starts; Kalshi Ryan Johnson 7+ YES midpoint was 16.5c, so the NO reference is 83.5c and the 84c NO price is live.
    • A 7+ contract loses at exactly 7; the season maximum of 8 confirms an exposed outlier tail.
  4. Minnesota Twins inning 2 winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • F5 winner prices Minnesota 0.45 versus Los Angeles 0.42; full-game markets also make Minnesota the slight favorite.
    • Minnesota's current vs-RHP team line is .319 xwOBA/.415 SLG versus .305/.387 for Los Angeles, with a 21.5% versus 25.3% K rate.
    • In the second inning, Minnesota's 4-6 hitters (Josh Bell, Alan Roden, Royce Lewis) face listed starter Ryan Johnson; this supports the non-draw direction.
    • Ryan Johnson has only 14.2 listed profile innings and no populated first-inning sample; his true early-game level is uncertain.
  5. Game total over 8.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 9.1 projected total runs, fair total line 9.0, Over 8.5 win probability 55.8%, push probability 0% (model release 2:40 PM CDT).
    • Minnesota's current split versus right-handed pitching is .319 xwOBA; Los Angeles is .305.
    • Ryan Johnson carries a 7.36 ERA and 1.98 WHIP; Dean Kremer's 4.19 ERA still leaves a roughly four-run Angels baseline.
    • Johnson's 3.97 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA, and 9.82 K/9 suggest his ERA may overstate the Twins' scoring opportunity.
  6. Ryan Johnson over 16.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • books are anchoring 16.5 outs to Johnson's 5.3 IP season average; his last three starts all reached 6.0 IP.
    • Last three: 18.0 innings on 282 pitches, 15.7 P/IP; the 17.5 P/IP decay trigger is not reached.
    • Last five starts averaged 6.0 IP; all five cleared 16.5 outs, including 90+ pitches in three.
    • The recent five-start sample is thin; one command problem or injury can end the over early.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Dean Kremer under 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 13% derived SwStr rate (45.8% swing × 28.3% whiff) is strong, but matchup suppresses upside.
    • Kremer's two latest confirmed outings produced five strikeouts each, in 5.2 and 4.0 innings.
    • 2026 K rate is 23.2%; under 5.5 is priced at −110 despite the low-K opponent profile.
    • Kremer's 13% SwStr and 23.2% K rate can still produce six-plus strikeouts.
  2. Game total over 9.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  3. Minnesota Twins–Los Angeles Angels game total over 8 (push at exactly 8)
    0%Push

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 8 pushes at exactly 8; the adjacent Over 8.5 loses at exactly 8.
    • ProphetX quotes Over 8 at −106 (51.46¢) versus Over 8.5 at +112 (47.17¢), only a 4.29-point gap.
    • Totals of 0, 7 lose; exactly 8 only pushes rather than wins, so the option is valuable only when the adjacent rung is the true comparison.
  4. Dean Kremer under 5.5 pitching strikeoutsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 of Kremer's latest 10 logged starts finished with 5 or fewer strikeouts.
    • Kremer recorded a 20.8% strikeout rate against right-handed batters in 2025.
    • DraftKings −118 implies 54.1%; model estimate is 65%, a 10.9-point value margin.
    • The warehouse's current-season Kremer profile is stale/inconsistent with today's probable-starter listing; the probable feed is the identity source.
  5. Dean Kremer 6 or more strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model innings mass: 40% at 3.0 IP, 20% at 5.0, 20% at 5.67, 20% at 6.33; mean 4.60.
    • Recent Kremer sample: 17 strikeouts in 23 IP, or 0.74 K/IP, below his 2025 7.45 K/9 baseline.
    • Confirmed Twins lineup versus right-handed pitching: 388 strikeouts in 1,956 PA, a 19.8% K rate.
    • Plate-appearance event and TTO fields were null, so the third-time-through penalty is not directly estimated.
  6. Minnesota Twins first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Twins starter Dean Kremer: .327 expected wOBA allowed and 4.55 xERA versus Ryan Johnson's .343 and 5.06.
    • Minnesota's .319 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching exceeds the Angels' .305 mark.
    • FanDuel offers −120; independent cash estimate is 58%, above the 54.5% break-even price.
    • Ryan Johnson has only 14.2 season innings, so his expected-performance sample is thin.
  7. Minnesota Twins run line −1.5 [LIQUIDITY / ORDER FLOW]
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle is the sharp reference at Twins −1.5 +148. Projection is secondary: Twins vs RHP xwOBA .319 versus Angels .305; Kremer xERA 4.55 versus Johnson 5.06.
    • The run line loses on a Twins win by exactly one run; the moneyline thesis is insufficient.
  8. Minnesota Twins to win
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Best-price size ratio is 9.66x. This clears LEAN, not the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold.
    • Pinnacle lists Twins −110. The sharp reference matches the flow direction.
    • Kremer xERA 4.55 versus Johnson 5.06; Twins versus RHP xwOBA is .3495.
    • Ryan Johnson has only 14.67 listed innings; a small sample can invalidate the projection lean.

Questions

Who won Twins vs. Angels?

The Twins won 8-0 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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