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Updated

FinalChase Field
Yankees89-65
4-8
Diamondbacks81-74
Score by period
Team123456789T
NYY0040000004
ARI10005020-8

Top model pick, graded

Won

Arizona Diamondbacks F5 winner (first 5 innings) 44¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Burnes L5: 6.33 IP/start, 1.71 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.95 K/9; Warren L5: 5.27, 5.13, 1.22, 7.52.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-11 on this game · −24% return

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Burnes L5: 6.33 IP/start, 1.71 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.95 K/9; Warren L5: 5.27, 5.13, 1.22, 7.52.
    • The Yankees have the stronger overall versus-RHP lineup xwOBA (.3413 vs Arizona .3281), so their offense can overcome the starter gap early.
  2. Game first-five total under 6.5 (first 5 innings)Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 74¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply a near-8.5-run game: Arizona is about a 53% home favorite and the full total is 8/8.5.
    • The 2024, 25 regular-game sample averages 8.84 runs with 4.46-run SD, confirming a right-skewed baseline rather than a symmetric shortcut.
    • Pinnacle independently shows Arizona −120 with an 8.0 total, broadly agreeing with the anchor direction.
    • Warren's 2026 ERA is 4.44 and his last-five ERA is 5.13; one crooked early inning can erase the cushion.
  3. No 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence: moneyline implies Arizona about 52% to win; full-game total centers near 8.5 runs.
    • 2023, 25 MLB finals averaged 9.13 runs with SD about 4.6; the anchor total implies a normal, right-skewed scoring environment.
    • A flat-rate nine-inning fit puts a single-inning tie near 56, 60%; innings 1, 8 are quoted 57, 60%, but inning 9 draw is 71%.
    • Ninth-inning run rates are not exchangeable with earlier innings; bullpen quality, fatigue, and lead-state selection are unmodeled.
  4. New York Yankees over 4.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi’s game-total 8.5 market is 0.47 raw mid, while NYY over 4.5 is 0.42 and Arizona over 2.5 is 0.69.
    • Using the 50% rungs, NYY ~4.0 plus Arizona ~3.5 implies ~7.5 runs versus the game’s 8.5; the 1.0-run drift meets the stated coherence-fire tolerance.
    • Directional check favors NYY as the stale split: Yankees xwOBA vs right-handers is .3118 over 30 PA versus Arizona’s .2533 over 34 PA; both starters throw right-handed.
    • The coherence fire does not prove which of the three Kalshi markets is wrong; there is no independent sharp team-total quote at 4.5.
  5. Will Warren under 4.5 strikeouts
    +76%Won

    Taken at −132 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Warren's recent K/9 is 7.63 over his last three starts versus 9.48 season K/9.
    • His 84.91 average pitches per start is below the 88-pitch workload threshold.
    • A longer-than-usual outing can overcome the pitch-count tendency.
  6. Corbin Burnes over 14.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −144 on FanDuel

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 19.0 outs and 90.6 pitches per start across the current last-five rollup; season baseline is 17.5 outs/start.
    • The modeled distribution leaves 31% probability at 14 outs or fewer; one early traffic inning loses the over.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Corbin Burnes over 2.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −850 on FanDuel

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 warehouse game log: Burnes cleared 2.5 strikeouts in all 11 listed starts.
    • Latest profile shows 8.81 K/9 overall and 9.95 K/9 across his last five.
    • Confirmed listed starter for Arizona in the live MLB slate and odds feed.
    • The handedness split is favorable but below the brief's 15% strong-advantage benchmark.
  2. New York Yankees win the 9th inningLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • F5 winner prices AZ 44¢, NYY 40¢, draw 17¢; full-game ML is AZ 52¢ / NYY 48¢, no AZ-specific ninth-inning spike.
    • AZ used 4 appearances, 4.67 IP, 60 pitches and 4 arms; NYY used 3, 2.33, 47 and 3.
    • Aggregate workload does not identify the actual ninth-inning relievers; closer availability and deployment remain unknown.
  3. Game total under 8.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 7.8; fair total line 7.8; win probability 59%; push probability 0%.
    • Official 1, 9 lineups and Burnes/Warren starters were locked at 2:40 PM CDT.
    • Burnes: .231 xwOBA allowed, 2.66 ERA, 3.94 FIP; last-five ERA 1.71.
    • Warren carries a 4.39 ERA, .333 xwOBA allowed, and 6.46 last-three ERA.
  4. Game total over 8.5 runs
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Month board is positive for 4 of 7 Over qualifiers; this desk deliberately applies no month-positive veto.
    • Most likely loss: Corbin Burnes and Will Warren suppress scoring, leaving eight or fewer runs.
  5. Game total under 8 (push at exactly 8; wins 0–7, loses 9+)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 8 wins at 0, 7, pushes at exactly 8, and loses at 9+; under 8.5 wins the exact-8 outcome.
    • Under 8.5 captures exactly 8 as a win; the whole-number rung can still be inferior if sub-8 scoring is materially less likely than the market implies.
  6. Austin Wells over 0.5 hits
    +71%Won

    Taken at −140 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 64% hit probability versus −140 implied 58.3%, 5.7-point value margin.
    • Wells went 2-for-3 yesterday; 2026 L7 and L14 batting average are both .667.
    • Wells is priced as an active participant for this game; the prop board confirms game inclusion.
    • The 2026 sample is only 4 plate appearances, so the .667 form is extremely unstable.
  7. Corbin Burnes 5 or more strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 5.8 expected innings and 0.61 probability of 5+ strikeouts after an innings/TTO haircut.
    • Burnes profile: 8.81 K/9, 5.85 IP/start across 11 starts; recent K/9 is 9.64 over 3 and 9.95 over 5.
    • Confirmed Yankees lineup: 2,545 current right-handed PA, 583 strikeouts (22.9%); Burnes is confirmed as Arizona's starter.
    • Burnes has only 11 current-season starts; the profile supplies aggregates but the per-start dates are year-misaligned.
  8. Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, Will Warren's profile shows 6.46 ERA over his last 3 and 5.13 over his last 5 versus 4.44 overall.
    • Arizona versus right-handed pitching posts .3281 xwOBA, .4226 SLG, and only a .2005 strikeout rate; the posted lineup is confirmed active.
    • Market context is supportive but secondary: ProphetX has Arizona at −114 moneyline while the sharp reference is −120; this is not a devig gate.
    • Bullpen availability behind Warren is unknown: the Yankees bullpen-state surface returned no rows, so an early exit cannot be fully assessed.
  9. New York Yankees to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  10. Total runs over 8.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  11. Game total over 8.5High conviction
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Posted lineups are present; Yankees and Diamondbacks own .3413 and .3281 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • Will Warren: 4.43 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 6.46 ERA over his last three; offensive path supports the Over.
    • Corbin Burnes is a genuine Under threat: 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .3055 xwOBA allowed.
  12. Will Warren over 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Slate K Model · Sharp Reference LayerDown 67% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle −102/−130 at 11:43:54 AM PT de-vigs to 47.2% for Warren 5+ Ks.
    • Warren’s 2026 profile shows 9.48 K/9; his last-five line is 7.52 K/9 over 5.27 IP/start, a roughly 4.4-K baseline.
    • A short outing, command trouble, or an early hook can erase the modest 3.2-point edge.

Questions

Who won Yankees vs. Diamondbacks?

The Diamondbacks won 8-4 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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