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FinalTruist Park
Reds72-84
4-0
Braves92-64
Score by period
Team123456789T
CIN0010011104
ATL0000000000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Ozzie Albies hits over 0.5 32¢

Why Quiet Bat likes it: Lineup posted: Albies bats 4th, projected 4.3 PA; versus RHP in 2026: 409 PA, .219 AVG, .278 xwOBA.

Quiet BatUp 12% return this season · 114 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-14 on this game · −4% return

  1. Game total over 9.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFade the Arm, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Williamson owns a 5.85 xFIP and 6.4 xERA; Ritchie is at 4.87 xFIP and 5.3 xERA, with only 25%/25.4% CSW.
    • Cashing likelihood is improved by two weak starter profiles plus 83°F, wind out to RF, and Truist Park run/HR factors of 102/105; price quality is separate.
    • Most likely loss: both starters manage contact better than their profiles and the game finishes with 9 or fewer runs.
    Deep Book
      • Over loses at 9 or fewer runs; 9 is plausible near the sharp 9.5 total.
    • Atlanta Braves team total over 6.5 runsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Internal coherence: Atlanta 6+ runs is priced at 28¢, while the stricter 8+ contract is inexplicably 29¢.
      • Live moneyline anchors Atlanta at roughly 69%; the full-game total ladder centers the game near 8.5, 9 runs.
      • The fitted run picture supports Atlanta as the favored scoring side; buying the lower threshold at the lower price is the board-consistent direction.
      • The ladder inversion is only 1¢, so spread and venue fees can erase the structural edge.
    • 7th-inning draw
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Home win anchor is 69.5%; the 9.5-run total anchor implies a consistent high-but-not-extreme scoring environment.
      • 2026 empirical MLB: 65.8% seventh-inning draws in games under 10 runs, 47.4% in games scoring 10+.
      • Mixing those observed distributions at the anchor-implied 48% over-9.5 rate gives roughly 57% seventh-inning draw probability.
      • The 3-point estimated edge is thin; a single late-inning run decides the contract.
    • Atlanta over 3.5 runs scored
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

      One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Same-event Kalshi game-total median is 8 runs (over 7.5 raw mid 0.52, over 8.5 raw mid 0.41), while team-total medians are Atlanta 4 plus Cincinnati 3: a one-run coherence fire.
      • The side-specific diagnostic favors Atlanta: Brandon Williamson is the confirmed left-handed starter with 5.56 ERA, .378 xwOBA allowed and 6.4 xERA; Atlanta's 1-9 lineup is confirmed.
      • The venue may be right about the allocation: a one-run team-total/game-total mismatch does not identify Atlanta as the mispriced side.
    • Ozzie Albies hits over 0.5
      +213%Won

      Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

      Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Lineup posted: Albies bats 4th, projected 4.3 PA; versus RHP in 2026: 409 PA, .219 AVG, .278 xwOBA.
      • Contact-quality read supports the under: .189 hard-hit rate and .148 AVG over his last 7 games.
      • A fourth-place hitter projects for 4.3 PA; one early hit defeats the NO contract.
    • JR Ritchie under 6.5 strikeoutsFavoriteHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 86¢ on Polymarket

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 9 of Ritchie's last 10 starts stayed under 6.5 strikeouts.
      • Ritchie owns an 8.33 season K/9 and 9.53 K/9 across his last five starts.
      • Under 6.5 is priced at 86¢, equivalent to about −614 American odds, inside the extreme-chalk range.
      • One of his last 10 starts reached 7 strikeouts, so the threshold is not automatic.
    Show all 23 picks
    1. Atlanta Braves to winFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Atlanta: +120 run differential through 156 games (+0.77/game) versus Cincinnati −163 (−1.05/game), a 1.81-run gap.
      • JR Ritchie is confirmed for Atlanta (5.30 xERA); Brandon Williamson is confirmed for Cincinnati (6.40 xERA).
      • Both starters carry ERAs above 5.00, so early run variance can erase the rating edge.
    2. Atlanta Braves spread −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Atlanta's +0.77 run differential/game versus Cincinnati's −1.04 produced a 1.81-run gap over 156 games.
      • Confirmed Ritchie/Williamson starters show xERAs 5.3/6.4; Atlanta's bullpen used 124 versus Cincinnati's 141 pitches recently.
      • Most likely loss: Atlanta wins by exactly one run or loses, failing the −1.5 cover.
    3. Atlanta Braves 4th-inning winnerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 24¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Atlanta's 4th-inning price is 24¢ versus 27, 30¢ in innings 1, 3 and 5.
      • Atlanta first-five winner is 54¢ and full-game moneyline is 66.75¢, both stronger than the 4th-inning quote implies.
      • Second-TTO mechanism: Williamson's 2026 xwOBA allowed is .4375 in TTO2 versus Ritchie's .3442; this supports Atlanta's side.
      • Starters average 4.8, 4.9 innings, but exact pitch counts and the actual second-TTO timing remain uncertain.
    4. Over 9.5 total runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +106 on FanDuel

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 9.8; fair total line 9.7; Over 9.5 win probability 52.4%; push probability 0% (model release 5:45 PM CDT).
      • Both confirmed starters carry elevated expected run indicators: JR Ritchie 5.30 xERA/.349 xwOBA allowed; Brandon Williamson 6.40 xERA/.378 xwOBA allowed (5:40 PM CDT snapshot).
      • Cincinnati's bullpen logged 6.0 innings and 99 pitches over the prior three days; Atlanta logged 4.67 innings and 71 pitches, widening the late-inning run tail.
      • Atlanta's .3065 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching and Cincinnati's .3086 versus right-handed pitching are both below-average matchup inputs.
    5. Brandon Williamson 4+ strikeouts: NoFavorite
      +49%Won

      Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Last five appearances produced 1, 2, 4, 5, 4 Ks; last four pitch counts were 25, 47, 86, 87.
      • Kalshi 4+ NO costs 67¢, versus 4+ YES at 34¢; sportsbook 3.5+ YES prices range +145 to +180.
      • The 4+ NO rung has more modeled margin than Kalshi 5+ NO at 84¢ or 6+ NO at 93¢.
      • Williamson is officially listed as the starter, and a restored 80-plus-pitch leash could produce four strikeouts.
    6. JR Ritchie under 14.5 outs recorded
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +107 on DraftKings

      BelloUp 7% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • last 3 starts: 12.33 IP and 231 pitches, or 18.73 pitches/IP; he recorded 14, 12 and 11 outs.
      • season workload is only 4.93 IP/start; clearing 14.5 outs requires at least five innings.
      • high recent pitch efficiency triggered the decay check, but fastball velocity is +0.41 mph and spin is −11 rpm versus season baseline: stable stuff, not decay.
      • the 124-pitch bullpen load can encourage Walt Weiss to extend Ritchie beyond his recent workload.
    7. Full-game total over 9.5 runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +106 on FanDuel

      Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 11.70 combined starter xERA: JR Ritchie 5.30 and Brandon Williamson 6.40.
      • Workload gate passes: Ritchie has 9 prior starts and 87.75 last-four average pitches; Williamson 7 and 81.25.
      • Truist Park factors are 102 runs and 105 HR; 83°F conditions support offense without triggering a wind suppression adjustment.
      • Jordan Baker’s 8.22 average total runs and 29.6% over-9 rate are under-leaning signals.
    8. Brandon Williamson under 2.5 strikeouts
      +108%Won

      Taken at +108 on DraftKings

      Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Williamson's season K/9 is 6.39; his last three appearances produced 7 Ks across 10.33 innings.
      • DraftKings offers +108 on the under 2.5 line, a better price than the −130 over.
      • His last 2026 start went 5.33 innings with 5 Ks, so normal starter length can clear 2.5.
    9. Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves under 9 total runs
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX's exact contract is full-game under 9; 9 total runs refunds, while under 9.5 loses.
      • MLB history: exactly 9 total runs occurred in 742 of 7,420 regular/postseason games from 2023-25, 10%.
      • under 9 is +114 (46.73¢) versus under 9.5 at −110 (52.38¢), only a 5.65-point quote gap.
      • Under 9 loses at 10 or more runs; exactly 9 is a push, not a win.
    10. Elly De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases
      +134%Won

      Taken at +134 on DraftKings

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model: 55% versus DraftKings' +134 implied 42.7%, a 12.3-point value margin.
      • De La Cruz cleared 1.5 total bases in 6 of his last 10 games, producing 20 total bases.
      • Season .516 slugging percentage and 28 home runs support multi-base upside.
      • Only recent form clears the WEIGH threshold; no qualifying matchup-split advantage was verified.
    11. Drake Baldwin over 0.5 hitsFavorite
      +41%Won

      Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Baldwin recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games, with 15 hits in that span.
      • Confirmed batting second and active in the pregame lineup; season .286 average.
      • Only one WEIGH factor clears: recent hit form; the matchup split is not a qualifying top-35% edge.
    12. Ha-Seong Kim under 0.5 hits
      +97%Won

      Taken at −103 on DraftKings

      +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season .122 batting average (14 hits in 115 AB); only .0727 versus left-handed pitching.
      • His .0727 vs-L average and .0727 vs-L slugging are the matchup's strongest suppressors.
      • Estimated fair under probability 63%; DraftKings −103 breaks even at 50.7%, a +12.3-point edge.
      • Recent form is better than the season split: .1842 average over the last 14 games.
    13. First-inning runs: No
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Recent logs: Braves scored in the first 3/19 times (15.8%); Reds did so 6/18 times (33.3%).
      • Posted top threes: Atlanta's Acuña/Baldwin/Olson average .362 xwOBA; Cincinnati's Jorge/De La Cruz/Stewart average .322.
      • Full-game 9.5 is NOT a valid RFI reference; it answers a different innings and participant distribution.
      • No sharp RFI comparison; the 45% estimate is model-dependent and confidence is capped below sharp-reference plays.
    14. Cincinnati Reds win first 3 innings
      +223%Won

      Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • matchup estimate is CIN 36%, tie 22%, ATL 42% from the posted 1, 6 lineups, platoon xwOBA, starter first-inning and TTO2/TTO3 profiles, park and weather.
      • Williamson's 2026 first-inning profile is .250 BA with a 24.2% K rate; his TTO2/TTO3 xwOBA is .438/.368 versus Ritchie's .344/.316.
      • Cincinnati's vs-RHP team xwOBA is .309, while Atlanta's vs-LHP mark is .307; Elly De La Cruz (.376 overall xwOBA), Sal Stewart (.348) and JJ Bleday (.342) are confirmed in the Reds' top five.
      • Williamson's first-inning sample is only 7 games/33 PA, and his 2026 TTO2/TTO3 samples are only 37/30 PA.
    15. Atlanta Braves spread −3.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Atlanta lineup xwOBA versus RHP is .323 versus Cincinnati's .3086; Pinnacle Atlanta ML is −224.
      • Cincinnati can score against Williamson: 5.57 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .378 xwOBA allowed.
    16. Game total over 8.5 runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

      UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Mapping is exact: global Cincinnati-Atlanta full-game 8.5 Over to Polymarket US full-game total 8.5 Over.
      • Own read agrees: 83°F with wind out, two starters above 5.00 ERA, and bullpens carrying 124/141 pitches over three days.
      • JR Ritchie or Brandon Williamson could outperform poor season ERAs, leaving the game at eight runs or fewer.
    17. Cincinnati Reds to win
      +223%Won

      Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

      UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks

    Questions

    Who won Reds vs. Braves?

    The Reds won 4-0 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.

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