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FinalAmerican Family Field
Cardinals77-83
2-3
Brewers101-59
Score by period
Team123456789T
STL0110000002
MIL00102000-3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Milwaukee Brewers to win −163

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Milwaukee is 101-59 overall and 53-26 at home; St. Louis is 77-83 and 39-40 on the road.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 19-11 on this game · +11% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to win3 models agree
    +61%Won

    Taken at −163 on DraftKings

    3 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Drift +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Milwaukee is 101-59 overall and 53-26 at home; St. Louis is 77-83 and 39-40 on the road.
    • Brewers bullpen used 193 pitches over three days with zero back-to-back relievers versus 242 and one for St. Louis.
    • Grade B historical sample: 59 games, below the 100-game Grade A threshold.
    Drift
    • Power model 63.5% Milwaukee: +211 run differential versus St. Louis −26; wRC+ 107.3 versus 93.9.
    • Team pitching FIP is 3.65 versus 4.07; Milwaukee bullpen workload is 193 pitches versus St. Louis 242 over three days.
    • Most likely loss: Mathews outduels May and St. Louis converts a close, low-scoring game.
    Undertow
      • Quinn Mathews has the lower listed ERA (3.65) versus Dustin May (4.67), creating a meaningful starting-pitcher risk.
    • Dustin May over 2.5 strikeouts3 models agree
      +78%Won

      Taken at −128 on DraftKings

      3 modelsK’s, Señor Strikeouts +1
      Why 3 models like it
      K’s
      • 22.1% blended K-rate estimate: 60% last-10 (21.6%) and 40% season (22.9%).
      • 18.5, 19 projected TBF produces roughly 4.1, 4.2 expected strikeouts.
      • May's last two starts lasted only 2.0 and 2.3 innings, making the workload projection the key failure point.
      Señor Strikeouts
      • 10.45 K/9 over his last three starts and 10.31 K/9 over his last five.
      • He recorded 21 strikeouts across 18.33 recent innings; the 2.5 threshold is below that recent scoring rate.
      • May's last start lasted just 2.0 innings and 36 pitches; recent workload has been volatile.
      +EV Volume Handicapper
      • Model estimates 68% versus 58.7% FanDuel break-even: +9.3 percentage points.
      • May's Milwaukee split shows a 10.31 K/9 rate over his last five starts and 8.77 K/9 for the season.
      • St. Louis strikes out only 21.8% versus right-handed pitching, a below-average matchup for May.
    • St. Louis Cardinals spread +1.5Favorite
      +54%Won

      Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Live anchors imply a close, moderate-scoring game: Milwaukee 54% moneyline and 46% for over 7.5.
      • St. Louis leads 1-0 in the bottom of the second, directly supporting the underdog cushion.
      • 2026 MLB scoring is right-skewed (8.96 average, 8-run median); the 7.5 anchor does not support a runaway-game assumption.
      • A single multi-run Milwaukee inning can erase the 1.5-run cushion in a low-total game.
    • Milwaukee Brewers team total over 2.5Favorite
      +39%Won

      Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 59% home-win and 7.5-run anchors fit an approximately MIL 4.1, STL 3.4 run split.
      • Empirically calibrated 2025-26 MLB totals are right-skewed: median 8, mean 8.9; the fitted MIL tail puts 3+ runs near 77%.
      • Polymarket US charges 72¢ for Brewers 3+ runs, the clearest modest gap among the fully quoted non-moneyline rungs.
      • The team-run split is inferred from total plus win probability, not directly observed; several distributions can fit those anchors.
    • 1st-inning draw
      +69%Won

      Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Brewers moneyline anchor implies roughly 59% home win probability; the 7.5 total anchor is near 50/50 on over.
      • Pinnacle independently shows Milwaukee −151 and a 7.5 total, confirming the venue’s liquid anchor picture.
      • 2026 scoring calibration is right-skewed: 2,402 games averaged 8.96 runs, with an 8-run median and 12-run 75th percentile.
      • The 666-half-inning calibration is recent and may not represent tonight’s exact run environment.
    • Quinn Mathews under 4.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +116 on DraftKings

      K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Mathews' K/9 has declined from 7.92 season-long to 6.86 over his last three starts.
      • Milwaukee's 22.9% team whiff rate supports a contact-oriented matchup.
      • The 4.5 line can lose on ordinary strikeout variance.
    Show all 27 picks
    1. Quinn Mathews over 4.5 hits allowed
      +83%Won

      Taken at −120 on DraftKings

      Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 43 hits in 44.33 innings (8.73 H/9); 5.38 hits per start versus a 4.5 line.
      • Milwaukee owns a 107.3 wRC+ in 2026, clearing the brief's 105 offense fallback.
      • Milwaukee's team-total market is posted at 4.5 runs; DraftKings offers the prop at −120.
      • Recent form is good: 2.75 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his last three starts, so the deterioration gate itself is not met.
    2. St. Louis Cardinals to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +138 on FanDuel

      Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Quinn Mathews has a 2.37 ERA over his last five starts versus Dustin May's 5.40
      • Cardinals lead the handedness matchup in xwOBA: .3123 versus Milwaukee's .3066
      • Milwaukee owns a 101-59 record, +211 run differential, and an 8-2 last-10 record
    3. Brandon Lockridge under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
      +25%Won

      Taken at −400 on BetMGM

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 100% RBI-under hit rate in his last 10 games (0 of 10 produced an RBI).
      • Confirmed starter batting eighth for Milwaukee in the live pregame roster.
      • BetMGM −400 is inside the brief's −300 to −1000 extreme-chalk price band.
      • RBI outcomes are opportunity-dependent; one late lineup turn with runners in scoring position can beat the prop.
    4. Milwaukee Brewers 9th inning winnerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Milwaukee 9th is 0.16, versus 0.23, 0.26 in innings 3, 8.
      • The 9th draw is 0.72, versus 0.61, 0.63 in innings 3, 8; it is the board's scoring outlier.
      • Full-game Milwaukee is 0.56 while over 6.5 runs is 0.63; that conflicts with a 72% ninth draw.
      • The 9th draw remains modal; a scoreless or tied frame loses.
    5. Game total over 7.5 runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −109 on DraftKings

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 8.2 runs, fair total line 8.0, Over 7.5 win probability 58.7%, push probability 0% (model run 5:41 PM CDT, Sep 26).
      • Official 1, 9 lineups were locked at 5:40 PM CDT; Milwaukee owns a .409 SLG and .3265 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
      • Starters carry xERAs of 4.47 (Dustin May) and 4.30? (Quinn Mathews) with May allowing .324 xwOBA and Mathews .2994.
      • American Family Field is roof-closed at 72°F with a 0-mph wind; the 96 run park factor is mildly suppressive.
    6. St. Louis Cardinals first-five spread +0.5 (first 5 innings)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −115 on FanDuel

      Familiar FaceUp 14% over 104 picks
      Why it likes it
      • FanDuel has Milwaukee −0.5 at −113, confirming St. Louis is the first-five underdog.
      • FanDuel prices the required St. Louis +0.5 first-five spread at −115.
      • First-five margin is highly volatile; one early homer or defensive mistake can decide the ticket.
    7. Quinn Mathews 4+ strikeoutsFavorite
      +43%Won

      Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed Milwaukee lineup is posted; opponent lineup K rate versus left-handers is 21.4%, but the 4+ rung is insulated by the low threshold.
      • Mathews is a confirmed, active listed starter with no IL status or verified pitch cap; season K/9 is 7.92 and L5 K/9 is 7.71.
      • Mathews has only eight 2026 starts; his last five strikeout totals were 3, 8, 4, 4, and 7, leaving meaningful single-game variance.
    8. Quinn Mathews over 15.5 outs recorded
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +124 on FanDuel

      BelloUp 7% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Last three starts averaged 6.56 innings; Mathews cleared 15.5 outs in all three.
      • L3 efficiency was 14.95 pitches/IP, below the 17.5 decay trigger; five-pitch mix avoids the two-pitch flag.
      • L3 fastball velocity was 86.87 mph (−0.45 vs 87.32 season); spin was 2,164 rpm (+18 vs 2,146): no verified decay.
      • The season baseline cleared 15.5 in only 4 of 8 starts; the recent three-start surge can regress.
    9. First-inning runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

      Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season first-inning scoreless baseline implies 51.6% YRFI: 1 − (.6933 × .6994).
      • Confirmed top-four orders are posted; May/Mathews first-inning BA is .254/.250 and K% is .242/.229.
      • Mathews brings a .299 xwOBA allowed and 11.1% K-BB%; May's recent strikeout form adds upside to an early run outcome.
      • May's recent L5 ERA is 5.40, but his 10.31 L5 K/9 can still produce a clean first inning.
    10. Game total under 8 (pushes/refunds at exactly 8; historical exact-total-8 frequency 7.819%)
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Whole-number under 8 pushes/refunds if the game lands exactly on 8; it loses only at 9+.
      • Historical exact-total frequency is MLB-wide, not team-specific.
    11. St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 run line
      +67%Won

      Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Cardinals +1.5 wins when Milwaukee wins by exactly one; Cardinals +1 would push.
      • ProphetX +1.5 is 59.68¢ versus +1 at 50.50¢: only a 9.18-point price gap.
      • League-wide margin frequency is not a Cardinals-specific forecast; no projection edge is claimed.
    12. Game total under 7.5 runs
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

      Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Own estimate is approximately 55, 56% under versus a 51¢ executable Polymarket US price.
      • American Family Field is at a 96 runs park factor with the roof closed at 72°F.
      • St. Louis owns a 93.94 team wRC+; Milwaukee's current-season wRC+ is 107.3 but its split versus lefties is only .3066 xwOBA.
      • St. Louis used 194 bullpen pitches over the last three days versus Milwaukee's 132, creating late-inning over risk.
    13. Jake Bauers over 0.5 hits
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Bauers recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances.
      • He owns a .275 average and .542 slugging percentage versus left-handers over 156 PA.
      • Pregame roster lists Bauers active and batting third for Milwaukee.
      • The 8-for-10 recent sample can regress sharply in one plate-appearance environment.
    14. Quinn Mathews over 15.5 outs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +124 on FanDuel

      +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model estimates 56% versus 44.6% FanDuel break-even: +11.4 percentage points.
      • Mathews averaged 6.07 innings and 99 pitches across his last five starts; four cleared 15.5 outs.
      • Season workload is established: 8 starts, 44.33 innings, and 98.25 pitches per start.
      • Mathews cleared 15.5 in only 4 of his last 8 starts, so the recent workload sample is small.
    15. Alec Burleson over 0.5 hits
      +56%Won

      Taken at −178 on DraftKings

      Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • L10 hit rate is 7/10 (70%); L5 is 3/5 (60%), clearing both preferred trend gates.
      • Season hit-game rate is 110/159 (69.2%); he owns a .306 average and .400 xwOBA versus RHP in 2026.
      • Dustin May is right-handed; Burleson is active on the live game prop board and has a stable everyday workload.
      • Burleson is only 0-for-2 against May; the sample is too small for a meaningful H2H edge.
    16. Dustin May 4+ strikeouts
      +203%Won

      Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 30 starts: 139 K in 142.7 IP (8.77 K/9); 20 of 30 reached 4+ strikeouts.
      • Recent five-start form: 18.33 IP, 21 K, 10.31 K/9; 3 of 5 reached 4+.
      • An innings/rate mixture centers May near 4.2, 4.6 Ks, roughly 0.60 for 4+ after conservative shrinkage.
      • May's 30-start sample includes a team transition and substantial early exits; the innings distribution is wide.
    17. St. Louis Cardinals first-five to win (first 5 innings)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +130 on DraftKings

      The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Independent F5 win estimate: 45%; +130 implies 43.5%, fair price about +122.
      • Dustin May owns a 4.47 xERA and .324 xwOBA allowed; his L5 ERA is 5.40.
      • Quinn Mathews allows a .299 xwOBA; his L5 ERA is 2.37 against May's 5.40.
      • May's 4.47 xERA is merely vulnerable, not disastrous; a normal start erases the modest edge.
    18. First-inning runs over 0.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Posted top threes are confirmed: Wetherholt-Herrera-Burleson and Chourio-Turang-Bauers.
      • Team xwOBA splits versus starter hands are .3123 for STL and .3066 for MIL.
      • May allowed .254 first-inning BA; Mathews allowed .250, with four and one first-inning HRs.
      • The 51.5% estimate assumes independence; there is no sharp RFI reference to validate it.
    19. Milwaukee Brewers run line −1
      0%Push

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    20. Total runs under 7.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle is −109 under versus −103 over at 7.5.
      • St. Louis used 12.67 bullpen innings and 242 pitches over the last 3 days; late scoring is a direct threat.
    21. Quinn Mathews over 4.5 strikeouts
      +90%Won

      Taken at −111 on FanDuel

      Slate K Model · Sharp Reference LayerDown 67% last 30 days

    Questions

    Who won Cardinals vs. Brewers?

    The Brewers won 3-2 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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