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FinalRate Field
Rockies57-103
9-6
White Sox83-77
Score by period
Team123456789T
COL3011000049
CHW0110001036

Top model pick, graded

Won

Colorado Rockies to win +215

Why Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant likes it: 20,000-trial PA simulation model: Rockies 40.2% true win probability; fair +149; confidence medium; comparable platoon offense; key risks include Martin's edge and bullpen variance; locked 5:40 PM CDT.

Ricky MLB Moneyline QuantDown 6% this season · 237 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 18-8 on this game · +38% return

  1. Jose Quintana under 3.5 strikeouts3 models agreeHigh conviction
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on FanDuel

    3 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Señor Strikeouts +1
    Why 3 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Projected mean 2.2 Ks; 78% probability of 0, 3, a 1.3-K gap below the 3.5 line.
    • Season K/9 is 4.4 and L5 K/9 is 4.36; 4.5 IP/start supplies only about 19 expected batters.
    • Quintana lasted 4.0 IP and 70 pitches last start, making the under sensitive to workload variance.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Recent form is modest: 4.91 K/9 over his last three starts and 4.36 over five.
    • A longer-than-usual outing could create enough batters faced despite his normal workload.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • 90% under rate over 10 starts; 100% over the last five; season under rate also 90%.
    • 4.4 K/9 over a 4.5-inning workload projects about 2.2 strikeouts, 37% below the 3.5 line.
    • Only 10 starts and 45 innings make the season sample thin.
  2. Davis Martin under 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +68%Won

    Taken at −147 on DraftKings

    2 modelsK’s, Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    Why 2 models like it
    K’s
    • Model projects 21.1, 21.5 TBF and 3.8 Ks after the 60/40 recency-season blend plus matchup adjustment.
    • Poisson/negative-binomial blend gives approximately 66, 67% for 4 or fewer Ks versus DraftKings −147 (about 59.5% implied).
    • Martin’s L5 includes a six-strikeout outlier; removing it lowers the projected rate, but the remaining sample is still only 73 TBF.
    Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    • Shane Livensparger’s pitcher-fit z-score is −3.88, a qualifying negative called-strike signal for the under.
    • Starter identity is confirmed: Martin is listed and active; DraftKings, FanDuel, BetOnline, and Bovada all price this exact prop.
    • The 2% edge is modest and exists only at DraftKings; FanDuel, BetOnline, and Bovada are materially steeper under prices.
  3. Colorado Rockies to win
    +215%Won

    Taken at +215 on FanDuel

    Ricky MLB Moneyline QuantUp 86% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: Rockies 40.2% true win probability; fair +149; confidence medium; comparable platoon offense; key risks include Martin's edge and bullpen variance; locked 5:40 PM CDT.
    • Rockies vs RHP: .2538 average, .4255 slugging, .3184 xwOBA across 4,229 PA; White Sox vs LHP: .2305/.4035/.3217.
    • Colorado's confirmed lineup has six hitters at .804+ OPS; Chicago's bottom four are all below .69 OPS, concentrating its offense in the top half.
    • Chicago owns an 83-77 record and a 47-32 home mark versus Colorado's 57-103 and 25-54 road record.
  4. No 9th-inning draw
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors: Rockies moneyline 61.5% and Over 9.5 at 57.5%, fitting a final environment near 10 runs.
    • 2026 MLB finals: 2,894 games averaged 9.18 runs; median 9 and 75th percentile 12, supporting a non-low-scoring baseline.
    • A flat per-inning calibration from that live total gives roughly 45% ninth-inning tie probability; NO is priced at 40¢.
    • A scoreless ninth makes the draw YES; one run by either side is enough to validate NO.
  5. Chicago White Sox over 4.5 runs scored
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • CWS 4.5-run median rung plus Colorado 2.5-run median rung sums to 7.0 versus Kalshi's 8.5 game-total rung: a 1.5-run coherence fire above the 1.0-run tolerance.
    • Jose Quintana is confirmed left-handed with 5.65 xERA, .359 xwOBA against, 4.5 IP/start and 1.69 L5 WHIP.
    • Colorado's bullpen has 10.0 innings over three days and a back-to-back flag, increasing Chicago's late-inning scoring path.
    • Chicago must reach five runs; the 51.5% mid is near a coin flip and 52¢ leaves limited margin.
  6. Jose Quintana pitching outs under 13.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Quintana's last-3 ERA is 9.82 with a 1.82 WHIP, versus 5.40 and 1.51 season marks.
    • His season workload is only 4.50 innings per start (13.5 outs); his latest outing lasted four innings on 70 pitches.
    • Chicago's posted team total is 4.5 runs, with the over priced −125 at BetMGM, signaling early scoring pressure.
    • Chicago's 2026 overall wRC+ is 103.1, below the 105 quality threshold; the offense case leans on the 4.5-run implied total.
Show all 23 picks
  1. Game total over 8.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    Pen CheckUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Quintana: 6.97 ERA/1.69 WHIP over his last five; 5.65 xERA and .359 xwOBA allowed.
    • Martin’s 2.50 L5 ERA masks a 4.66 xERA and .330 xwOBA allowed.
    • Colorado vs RHP: .4255 SLG/.3184 xwOBA; Chicago vs LHP: .3217 xwOBA.
    • Bullpens are not maximally taxed: Chicago has 97 and Colorado 117 pitches over three days, with zero back-to-backs.
  2. Munetaka Murakami hits NO 0.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage arithmetic: lineup posted, batting order #4, projected 4.0 PA, and 377 PA versus right-handed pitching (0.21 AVG, .3401 xwOBA).
    • Murakami's .3401 xwOBA versus righties and .3347 season hard-hit rate leave meaningful contact upside.
  3. Chicago White Sox to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 83-77, +57 run differential versus Colorado 57-103, −193: 1.56 runs/game baseline gap.
    • Confirmed starters: Martin xERA 4.66 versus Quintana 5.65; Chicago also leads ERA 3.84 to 5.40.
    • Posted lineups show no late scratches; three-day bullpen workload is slightly lighter for CWS, 6.67 IP/97 pitches versus 7.0/117.
    • Quintana’s 5.65 xERA can understate variance; an early Rockies power burst erases the price edge.
  4. Game total over 8.5 runs
    +104%Won

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 8.9 total runs, fair total line 8.5, over win probability 55.8%, push probability 0%; model snapshot 5:40 PM CDT.
    • Quintana carries a 5.65 xERA and .359 xwOBA allowed; Martin carries a 4.66 xERA and .330 xwOBA allowed.
    • Colorado's 2026 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is .318; Chicago's versus left-handed pitching is .322.
    • The plate umpire's 8.37 average total runs is near baseline, not an explicit over signal.
  5. Jose Quintana over 4 strikeouts
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection 2.4 Ks; 4.4 season K/9, 4.9 L3, 4.4 L5, with 4.1 recent-IP workload.
    • Confirmed CWS lineup projects 23.7% K versus lefties (232/978), only borderline for strikeout overs.
    • Last 5/10 starts: 2.2/2.2 Ks; last four pitch counts 70, 33, 94, 73, with only one at 80+.
    • Quintana averaged 75.7 pitches per start; his 94-pitch outing shows a path to five or more Ks.
  6. First-inning runs over 0.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chicago's confirmed top four versus left-handed pitching includes Vargas (.410 xwOBA), Grichuk (.378), and Murakami (.358).
    • Quintana carries a 5.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 4.40 K/9, and 9.82 ERA over his last three starts.
    • Martin has allowed a .245 first-inning batting average and five first-inning homers in 28 starts.
    • Martin's recent form is excellent: 0.60 ERA over three starts and 2.50 over five.
  7. Connor Norby batter hits over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −147 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 69% for a hit versus DraftKings −147 implied 59.5%, a 9.5-point margin.
    • Norby recorded a hit in 7 of his last 10 appearances.
    • He bats fifth and owns a .2454 average versus right-handed pitching this season.
    • Norby's .2454 right-handed split is ordinary rather than dominant.
  8. Jose Quintana pitcher strikeouts under 3.5
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 68% under versus FanDuel −125 implied 55.6%, a 12.4-point margin.
    • Quintana stayed under 3.5 Ks in 8 of his last 10 starts.
    • His season K/9 is 4.4; last-five K/9 is 4.36 across only 20.67 innings.
    • Quintana has averaged only about 4.1 innings across his last five starts.
  9. Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox over 8.5 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 55% internal run-environment estimate versus 49% FanDuel break-even: +6.0 percentage points.
    • 2026 season scoring rates sum to 9.42 runs; the teams combined for 9.67 per game across the last nine each.
    • Quintana carries a 5.40 ERA and 5.65 xERA; Martin's xERA is 4.66.
    • Rate Field's 98 run factor and 62°F, 7-mph weather are not an overboost.
  10. Davis Martin 5+ strikeouts: No
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Desk distribution: innings <4.0 / 4.0, 5.9 / 6+ estimated 0.20 / 0.50 / 0.30; recent five-start mean is 3.6 IP.
    • CWS used 14.33 bullpen innings and 239 pitches over three days; a depleted relief corps can extend Martin's outing.
  11. Chicago White Sox first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −210 on DraftKings

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weak Pitcher Fade: Jose Quintana carries a 5.65 xERA and .359 xwOBA allowed versus Davis Martin's 4.66 and .330.
    • Chicago's last-30 split versus left-handers is .3598 xwOBA; Colorado's versus right-handers is .3057.
    • Quintana's recent form worsened to 6.97 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over his last five starts.
    • Martin's 4.66 xERA is ordinary, so Chicago still needs its offense to convert the matchup edge.
  12. Chicago White Sox −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jose Quintana's last-three ERA is 9.82 versus a 5.40 season ERA; his latest fastball was 88.92 mph versus an 89.71 mph baseline.
    • Confirmed Chicago lineup clears the platoon gate versus left-handers with .3217 team xwOBA; all nine starters were posted at 3:30 PM.
    • Cashing likelihood, separate from price quality: a medium lean toward Chicago covering, driven by early Quintana damage and the Rockies' 7.0 bullpen innings/117 pitches over three days.
    • Most likely loss: Chicago wins by exactly one, turning a likely moneyline win into a run-line loss.
  13. First-inning runs: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top threes: Chicago vs L xwOBA .410/.334/.378; Colorado vs R xwOBA .317/.334/.327.
    • Quintana's Rockies first-inning profile is .171 BA and 11.1% K over 45 PA; Martin's is .245 BA and 25% K over 112 PA.
    • Rate Field is 98 runs / 101 HR, with 62°F and 7-mph wind: no strong environment boost.
    • Derived 42% is a simple lineup/starter blend, not a sharp RFI price; no Pinnacle RFI line exists.
  14. Colorado Rockies run line +1.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-26 3:36:39 PM PDT. Best-price size ratio is 3.15x Rockies over Chicago.
    • Both probables posted and 18 starters listed at 3:30 PM PDT. This clears the personnel gate.
    • LEAN only. Pinnacle reference and the MLB matchup model favor Chicago; flow contradicts the sport read.
  15. Total runs under 8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle also posts 8 under +103. Reference only. ProphetX remains the placement venue.
    • Chicago's bullpen logged 239 pitches over three days; late availability can create over innings.
  16. Munetaka Murakami over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −101 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Murakami averaged 2.7 hits+runs+RBIs across his last 10 games and cleared 1.5 in 6 of those 10.
    • His board splits show a .280 average and .680 slugging percentage over the last seven games.
    • Chicago starter Jose Quintana enters with a 5.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 5.65 xERA.
    • Murakami's left-on-left split is weak: .180 average and .375 slugging against left-handers.
  17. Tristan Peters under 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +116 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-10 game log: 3 hits in 10 games; his recent contact rate is far below the prop threshold.
    • Last-7 batting average is .071 versus a .267 season mark, a 73% recent-form drop.
    • Peters owns a .185 average and .278 slugging percentage against left-handers; Jose Quintana starts for Chicago.
    • A single hit loses the prop, and baseball hit markets are inherently high variance.

Questions

Who won Rockies vs. White Sox?

The Rockies won 9-6 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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