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Updated

FinalKauffman Stadium
Guardians84-76
11-5
Royals68-92
Score by period
Team123456789T
CLE04100110411
KC3000000205

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cleveland Guardians/Kansas City Royals F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings) 50¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Projected F5 mean 4.96 runs: Cleveland 2.35 and Kansas City 2.61 from team/allowed F5 rates.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 15-14 on this game · −5% return

  1. Michael Wacha over 3.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    +68%Won

    Taken at −146 on FanDuel

    3 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, +EV Volume Handicapper +1
    Why 3 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Model projects 4.5 strikeouts; 4+ clears at approximately 64%.
    • Confirmed Cleveland nine posts an 18.7% K rate versus right-handed pitching across 3,003 PA.
    • Cleveland's 18.7% lineup K rate is contact-oriented and leaves little margin for a short outing.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated 69% to reach 4+ Ks versus 58.7% DraftKings break-even: +10.3 points.
    • Wacha averaged 5.6 Ks across his last five starts, with 31.67 innings and 504 pitches in his last five.
    • Recent three-start form fell to a 5.60 K/9 pace versus 7.13 season K/9.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100 (B): qualifying edge clears the 70-point bar.
    • Wacha cleared 3.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 starts (70%) and 4 of his last 5 (80%).
    • Cleveland's lineup has a relatively low 20.8% K rate versus right-handed pitching.
  2. Kansas City Royals to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    2 modelsRicky MLB Moneyline Quant, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: KC true 59.2%, p_conservative 55.8%, fair ML −126, medium confidence; Wacha/BP/home edge, Bibee variance and wind risks; 6:10 PM CDT.
    • Wacha: 3.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.97 xERA; Bibee: 4.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.29 xERA.
    • Kansas City's bottom lineup includes Rojas at 68 wRC+ and Collins at 84; sequencing variance is material.
    Fade the Arm
    • Tanner Bibee's last-5 ERA is 6.66 versus 4.35 for the season; his last-5 K/9 is down to 6.66 from 7.02.
    • Cleveland enters with 269 relief pitches and 15.67 bullpen innings over three days, plus two back-to-back relievers; Kansas City has one back-to-back arm.
    • Bibee's season xERA is a manageable 4.29 and season xFIP is 4.50; the recent ERA deterioration may regress.
  3. Game total over 8.5 runs2 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals Engine
    Why 2 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Cleveland is 8-2 over its last 10; Kansas City is 2-8, a 10-game form gap supporting Cleveland run opportunities.
    • Kansas City’s 2026 pitching profile is materially weaker: 4.69 FIP versus Cleveland’s 3.80.
    • Pinnacle is dealing 8.0 while Kalshi’s contract is 8.5, so the half-run comparison adds model uncertainty.
    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals Engine
    • Model projects 9.31 runs; Poisson P(9+) is 58.4% versus DraftKings’ 8.5 line.
    • Kauffman Park Factor is 112 runs and 102 HR; 75°F supports neutral-to-positive carry.
    • The 8-mph right-to-left wind is cross-field, so the fly-ball weather multiplier does not activate.
  4. Cleveland Guardians to win2 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Selective Pressure
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Full coverage: Michael Wacha and Tanner Bibee are confirmed starters; both are currently off the IL.
    • Cleveland's current-season run differential is +6 versus Kansas City's −115 through 160 games.
    • Most likely loss: Wacha's 2026 xERA is 3.97 versus Bibee's 4.29, giving Kansas City the starter-quality edge.
    Selective Pressure
    • Recent seven-game form: Cleveland went 5-2 with a +13 run differential; Kansas City went 1-6 at −15.
    • Confirmed starters are Michael Wacha (3.33 ERA) and Tanner Bibee (4.35 ERA); Cleveland's stronger recent team form offsets the pitching gap.
    • Wacha's 1.11 WHIP and 3.97 xERA give Kansas City a meaningful starter-based path.
  5. Tanner Bibee over 3.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +79%Won

    Taken at −127 on DraftKings

    2 modelsK’s, Picks with pink pro reader
    Why 2 models like it
    K’s
    • Projected 5.8 IP and roughly 24 TBF from a 10-start workload sample; no IL or hook flag, seven days' rest.
    • Poisson/empirical blend projects about 4.4 Ks and 64% for 4+; DraftKings −127 implies 55.9%.
    • Recent L5 K/9 is 6.66 versus 7.02 season; he cleared 3.5 in only 6 of his last 10 starts.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model: 60.5% over versus DraftKings −127 implied 55.9%, a 4.6-point value margin.
    • Bibee cleared 3.5 strikeouts in 6 of his last 10 starts.
    • Bibee recorded 2 strikeouts in his latest start and owns a 5.75 K/9 over his last three starts.
  6. Kansas City Royals +1.5 run line2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • Royals +1.5 wins when Kansas City loses by exactly one; Royals +1 pushes in that outcome.
    • ProphetX prices Royals +1.5 at 61.83¢ versus Royals +1 at 56.90¢, only a 4.93-point premium for the added win state.
    • Royals +1.5 still loses by two or more; the half-run contract has no push protection.
    Fade the Arm
    • Bibee’s 4.50 xFIP and 4.35 ERA profile a vulnerable arm; recent L3/L5 K/9 is 5.75/6.66.
    • Cashing likelihood is moderate, driven by KC’s platoon quality and +1.5 protection, separate from price quality.
    • Wacha is not vulnerable: 2026 xFIP 4.36, xERA 3.97, and 92.18 mph season fastball.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Cleveland Guardians/Kansas City Royals F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings)
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected F5 mean 4.96 runs: Cleveland 2.35 and Kansas City 2.61 from team/allowed F5 rates.
    • Top-three lineup xwOBA is .332 Cleveland and .348 Kansas City versus right-handed pitching; park factor is 112.
    • Michael Wacha's L5 line is strong: 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 31.67 innings.
  2. No 9th-inning draw
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors fit a near coin-flip game and moderate scoring: CLE/KC moneyline roughly 51/49; full-game total centered near 8.5.
    • 2026 recent MLB finals show 9.05 mean runs and 4.45-run standard deviation; the fitted nine-inning baseline is about one run per inning.
    • A roughly one-run inning process makes a 70% ninth-inning tie unusually high; no-tie probability should be materially higher than 37%.
    • Closer availability and leverage usage are unconfirmed; rested late relievers could suppress ninth-inning scoring.
  3. Michael Wacha under 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +121 on DraftKings

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wacha's recent K/9 is 5.60 over his last three starts versus 7.13 for the season.
    • The trend is only a three-start sample; his 7.13 season K/9 remains materially stronger.
  4. Bobby Witt Jr. HRR YES 0.5Favorite
    +35%Won

    Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Batting second, projected 4.3 PA; versus RHP: .276 AVG/.372 xwOBA over 451 PA.
    • Season profile: .378 xwOBA, 17.2% K, 89.3% zone-contact, 31.5% hard-hit; two aligned production factors.
    • Wacha: 25.5% CSW, 7.13 K/9, 3.97 xERA; DK fair hit/RBI/run rates .690/.346/.463.
    • Most likely loss: repeated weak contact or walks leave no hit, run, or RBI in four-plus trips.
  5. Cleveland Guardians 2nd-inning winnerFavorite
    +5%Won

    Taken at 95¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • live line score shows Cleveland scored 3 in inning 2; Kansas City has not batted in the half-inning yet.
    • F5 winner is near-balanced (Cleveland 0.41, Kansas City 0.43, draw 0.20), isolating this as a conditional inning-state gap rather than a full-game side.
    • Cleveland wins unless Kansas City erases the current inning margin and finishes ahead; a tie requires matching Cleveland's final inning total.
    • Kansas City still bats in the bottom of the 2nd; a walk-and-power sequence can erase a three-run margin.
  6. Game total under 8.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 8.1 runs, fair total line 8.0, Under 8.5 win probability 56.4%, push probability 0% (release 5:40 PM CDT).
    • Michael Wacha and Tanner Bibee are verified starters; season xERAs are 3.97 and 4.29, with FIPs 4.31 and 4.60.
    • Bibee's last-three-start ERA is 7.47, and Kansas City owns a .320 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
  7. Michael Wacha over 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +154 on FanDuel

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • FanDuel +154 implies 39.4%; Wacha reached 5+ Ks in 21 of 31 starts (67.7%).
    • Wacha and the posted nine-man Cleveland lineup were confirmed at 3:30 PM PDT.
    • His last three strikeout totals were 5, 2, and 4; the recent 3-start average is only 3.67.
  8. First-inning runs over 0.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top-four xwOBA averages are .330 for Cleveland and .339 for Kansas City versus right-handers.
    • Bibee and Wacha allowed first-inning batting averages of .248 and .246; first-inning HR counts are 7 and 4.
    • Kauffman Stadium carries a 112 run factor; both lineups are confirmed and the 75°F, 8-mph crosswind is stable.
    • First-inning samples are only 32 games for Bibee and 31 for Wacha, so HR rates can regress sharply.
  9. Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals under 8.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 8.5 wins at exactly eight runs; Under 8 pushes at exactly eight rather than winning.
    • ProphetX prices Under 8.5 at 52.83¢ versus Under 8 at 48.31¢, only a 4.52-point premium for converting the eight-run outcome from push to win.
    • Under 8.5 loses at nine or more runs; there is no push at the half-point rung.
  10. Steven Kwan under 1.5 hitsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −225 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 77% under versus DraftKings −225 implied 69.2%, a 7.8-point value margin.
    • Kwan stayed under 1.5 hits in 8 of his last 10 appearances.
    • Confirmed batting-order starter with 627 season PA and a .277 season average.
    • Kwan is batting .308 over his last seven games, above his season .277 mark.
  11. Tanner Bibee 4+ strikeouts
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bibee's recent innings average 5.75 (SD 0.96); he reached 4+ K in 8 of 12 starts and worked 6+ innings in 8 of 12.
    • The projection uses only 12 recent starts and a Poisson conditional-K approximation; the model is sensitive to the innings distribution.
  12. Kansas City Royals first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tanner Bibee: 4.29 xERA and .318 xwOBA allowed versus Michael Wacha: 3.97 and .307.
    • Bibee's 6.66 ERA over his last five starts is materially worse than his 4.35 season ERA.
    • Kansas City leads Cleveland versus right-handed pitching in xwOBA (.320 to .310) and slugging (.407 to .386).
    • Bibee's season strikeout rate remains solid at 7.02 K/9, so recent-form regression is possible.
  13. First-inning runs: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • confirmed top-three lineups plus starter first-inning profiles produce an estimated 39% RFI-YES probability.
    • Cleveland top three vs RHP: Kwan .333, Ramírez .314, DeLauter .361 xwOBA; Kansas City: Jensen .317, Witt .372, Caglianone .389.
    • The full-game 8.5 total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it answers a different distribution across different innings, lineups, and pitcher states.
    • A 39% derived estimate is not sharp-validated; the roughly 11-point model-market gap could simply be model error.
  14. Kansas City Royals spread +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  15. Total runs under 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  16. Kansas City Royals F5 to win (first 5 innings)High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi midpoints KC/CLE/tie are 0.45/0.40/0.15, summing to 0.99; devigged KC is 44.7% versus fair 52%, a 7.3-point gap.
    • Gone-by-Six mirror fires at Bibee WHIP L5 1.68 ≥ 1.30, favoring home at half weight; Wacha's aligned L5 is 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP versus Bibee's 6.66 and 1.68.
    • Most likely loss: Cleveland scores early before Bibee's poor L5 run prevention can be exploited, while Wacha's recent form regresses.

Questions

Who won Guardians vs. Royals?

The Guardians won 11-5 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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