App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalPetco Park
Cubs89-73
0-8
Padres91-71
Score by period
Team123456789T
CHC0000000000
SD20113010-8

Top model pick, graded

Won

CHC-SD F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings) 43¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Expected F5 runs 5.16 from CHC 2.78 and SD 2.51 team-F5 rates with opposing-allowed blends.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 11-17 on this game · −27% return

  1. Chicago Cubs to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +108 on FanDuel

    4 modelsRotation Watch, Drift +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Rotation Watch
    • Cubs vs RHP: .324 xwOBA and .423 SLG; Padres vs LHP: .308 xwOBA and .375 SLG.
    • King has the better starter profile, but Boyd's .330 xwOBA allowed is only modestly worse than King's .322.
    • King's season ERA is 3.21 versus Boyd's 3.91, and King's last-five K/9 is 7.45 versus Boyd's 6.07.
    Drift
    • Cubs run differential +147 and pythagorean win rate 58.6%, versus Padres +41 and 52.7%.
    • Chicago owns a 113.3 wRC+ and .1775 ISO, versus San Diego's 100.9 wRC+ and .156 ISO.
    • Michael King has the stronger probable line: 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP versus Matthew Boyd's 3.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
    Patchel Sage
    • Cubs team xwOBA is .3239 vs RHP Michael King; Padres are .3076 vs LHP Matthew Boyd, triggering the Padres −0.50 run penalty.
    • Cubs' posted top five show zero platoon black holes vs right-handers; San Diego has one top-five xwOBA below .280 vs left-handers.
    • Matthew Boyd's xwOBA allowed is .330 versus Michael King's .322; the starting-pitcher gate provides no qualifying Cubs advantage.
    Fade the Arm
    • Michael King's 4.42 xERA and 4.34 xFIP trail his 3.21 ERA, showing materially worse underlying run prevention.
    • Padres' bullpen has only 3.0 innings and 64 pitches over three days, with zero back-to-back relievers; that supports the fade if King exits early.
    • King still carries a 27% season CSW rate and 93.64-mph fastball, so the vulnerability is not a certainty.
  2. Matthew Boyd over 3.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, K’s
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Confirmed 9-man Padres lineup: all hitters have at least 105 current-season PA; Boyd is listed active and has 22 starts.
    • Projected mean is approximately 4.6 strikeouts from roughly 23.7 expected batters faced and a regressed 19.5% per-batter K rate.
    • Boyd recorded only 20 strikeouts across his last five starts, a 4.0-K average that is below the projection.
    K’s
    • Blended K-rate is 17.5%: 20/119 TBF over his last five starts plus 18.5% season rate.
    • Projected workload is about 24 TBF: 23.8 L5 TBF/start, 23.6 season TBF/start, and no IL flag.
    • His 19.4% 2026 K rate versus left-handed hitters is ordinary over 134 PA; the Padres are not a top-quartile strikeout matchup.
  3. Chicago Cubs F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cubs top-three lineup xwOBA averages approximately .344 vs .339 for San Diego against the posted starter hands.
    • Michael King owns the stronger season profile: .322 xwOBA allowed and 3.21 ERA versus Boyd's .330 and 3.91.
  4. CHC-SD F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings)
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected F5 runs 5.16 from CHC 2.78 and SD 2.51 team-F5 rates with opposing-allowed blends.
    • King/Boyd xwOBA-against .322/.330 and L5 ERAs 3.10/3.64 support an over-friendly, non-shutdown read.
    • King and Boyd L5 WHIPs are 1.24 and 1.18; efficient command can strand the over.
  5. Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • The sharp reference independently shows Padres −130 and a 7.5 total; the anchor read is coherent, not an isolated prop.
    • Boyd (3.91 ERA) and King (3.21 ERA) are both posted starters; a starter-adjusted F5 environment should sit below half of 7.5.
    • The F5 over 3.5 contract costs 57c, leaving the under at 44c despite the lower-scoring F5 slice implied by the anchors.
    • Full-game anchors do not uniquely identify the first-five distribution; the F5 under estimate is structural, not a full projection.
  6. Matthew Boyd pitcher strikeouts under 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boyd's L3 K/9 is 5.19 versus a 6.82 season mark, a 1.63 K/9 decline.
    • FanDuel offers the under 3.5 at −120, with Boyd confirmed as the active Chicago starter.
    • The 3.5 line is already low; Boyd's 6.82 season K/9 and 88.95 pitches per start can still produce four strikeouts.
Show all 24 picks
  1. Michael King over 14.5 outs recorded
    +68%Won

    Taken at −146 on DraftKings

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • King cleared 14.5 outs in 28 of 32 2026 starts (87.5%); last five averaged 17.4 outs and 94.6 pitches.
    • His 2026 outs distribution is lumpy: 16 of 32 starts ended exactly at 18 outs, with only 4 at 15 outs or fewer.
    • Confirmed starter with 32 starts under current Padres manager Craig Stammen; seven days rest, no IL designation, and no reported workload limit.
    • San Diego's bullpen had zero innings and zero pitches yesterday, creating a credible early-hook alternative.
  2. Michael King over 1.5 earned runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −123 on DraftKings

    Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starter; live baseline is 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
    • King allowed 10 earned runs in his last 17 innings (5.29 ERA), with 6, 7, and 5 hits allowed.
    • Chicago's 2026 team wRC+ is 113.3, above the 105 quality threshold.
    • King's season baseline remains strong, so a rebound can keep him at one run or fewer.
  3. Total runs over 7.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US Over 7.5 is 49%; Under is 51.5%; 100.5% sum, MARKET_STATUS_OPEN, tradable, listing-level depth clears.
    • Ledger: SD vs L xwOBA .3076 gives −0.50 runs; SD wRC+ 100.5 with 4.46 RPG below 4.48 league mean and Boyd K/9 6.82 gives +0.65; net SD +0.15.
    • CHC ledger is 0.00 from .3239 xwOBA versus R; both bullpens have 0 b2b and 8.0 IP over three days.
    • Most likely loss path: Michael King suppresses Chicago and San Diego's weak .3076 xwOBA versus lefties keeps the game under 7.5.
  4. Matthew Boyd 14+ outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Pesto ChangeupUp 9% over 82 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Depth is routine: TTO3 PA 88 vs TTO1 100; 2026 same-role starts all cleared 13.5 outs (21, 15, 16, 21, 16).
    • De Jesus fit_z +2.38 is positive; it moves Boyd toward a third turn, projected 89 pitches and 14, 21 outs, centered 16, 18.
    • G1 risk, TTO3 xwOBA .3303 exceeds TTO2 .3174, activating the finesse cap; a 13-out hook loses.
  5. San Diego Padres 9th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • innings 1, 8 price San Diego 0.21, 0.24 versus Chicago 0.20, 0.23; the 9th alone flips to Padres 0.11 versus Cubs 0.19.
    • F5 winner is Padres 0.45 / Cubs 0.40 / draw 0.19, while the full-game Padres moneyline is 0.56; no broader board supports a Padres ninth-inning collapse.
    • King and Boyd average 5.78 and 5.76 innings; afterward San Diego has 3.0 IP/64 pitches in three days versus Chicago’s 8.0 IP/100.
    • Draw is 0.67 and the ninth-inning over-0.5 price is 0.35; scoreless or tied is clearly modal, so a side win is inherently high variance.
  6. Game under 7.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 7.2 total runs, fair total line 7.2, Under 7.5 win probability 57%, push probability 0% (model released 8:30 PM CDT).
    • Petco Park carries a 92 runs factor; clear 77°F conditions and only 4-mph left-to-right wind limit environmental over help (8:30 PM CDT).
    • Confirmed nine-man lineups average roughly .323 xwOBA for each side; neither lineup presents a full-stack matchup edge against the opposing starter.
    • King and Boyd carry 4.42 and 4.66 xERA, respectively, so regression from their 3.21 and 3.91 ERAs can create an early over.
  7. Michael King over 3.5 strikeouts
    +54%Won

    Taken at −185 on BetMGM

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection 5.2 Ks: 25.2 projected batters faced × 20.7% blended King/Cubs strikeout rate.
    • King owns 7.74 season K/9, with 7.94 L3 and 7.45 L5.
    • Last five starts produced 5, 6, 4, 3, 6 Ks; last 10 averaged 4.9.
    • Confirmed Cubs lineup strikes out only 20.4% versus right-handers, below the 22% contact-heavy threshold.
  8. MLB game total over 7.5 runs
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 8.55 runs; Poisson probability is 62.1% over 7.5 and 37.9% under.
    • Combined starter xERA is 9.08; Cubs and Padres opposite-hand xwOBA splits are .319 and .320.
    • Workload gate passes: King averaged 94.3 and Boyd 87.3 pitches across their last four starts.
    • Petco suppresses scoring, with a 0.92 run factor and only four-mph left-to-right wind.
  9. Matthew Boyd under 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • L3 K/9 is 5.19 and L5 K/9 is 6.07; recent totals were 3, 4, and 3.
    • Boyd has four days since his 9/24 start and FanDuel's −120 is the best listed under price.
    • Two of Boyd's last three starts stayed under 3.5; four strikeouts loses the ticket.
  10. Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres under 4.5 first-five total (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  11. Total runs under 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7.5 wins at exactly 7; under 7 only pushes.
    • ProphetX quotes under 7.5 at 50.98c (−104) versus under 7 at 44.25c (+126).
    • Venue self-reference is not independent sharp confirmation; game-specific scoring distribution may differ.
  12. Chicago Cubs +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cubs +1 pushes on a one-run Padres win; Cubs +1.5 wins that same result.
    • REFERENCE only: this uses ProphetX's adjacent rung, not an independent projection or sharp reference.
  13. San Diego Padres to win
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own synthesis estimates San Diego at 58.5%; the 55.5c US price leaves roughly 3.0 percentage points.
    • San Diego scored 72 runs in its last 11 games; Chicago scored 41 in its last 10.
    • Starter gap is modest: Michael King's 4.42 xERA versus Matthew Boyd's 4.66.
  14. Seiya Suzuki over 0.5 hits
    +59%Won

    Taken at −169 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model hit probability 72.5% versus 62.8% implied by DraftKings (−169): +9.7 percentage points.
    • Season platoon split versus LHP: .302 AVG, .525 SLG, .389 xwOBA across 168 PA.
    • Suzuki has recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances and bats fourth in the confirmed lineup.
    • Boyd has held right-handed hitters to a .247 AVG and .326 xwOBA this season.
  15. Matthew Boyd over 13.5 pitcher outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −116 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated fair probability 71%; DraftKings −116 implies 53.7%, a +17.3-point edge.
    • Boyd averages 5.76 innings and 88.95 pitches per start in the 2026 regular-season profile.
    • He cleared 13.5 outs in each of his 10 most recent starts queried.
    • Postseason managers can shorten a starter's leash despite established workload.
  16. Fernando Tatis Jr. over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +40%Won

    Taken at −250 on BetMGM

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended matchup projection (.289 season AVG, .307 vs LHP, .296 xBA) gives ~75.7% for a hit in four AB; −250 implies 71.4%, a ~6% relative projection edge.
    • Tatis hit in 8 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5; season hit-game rate is 113/159 (71.1%).
    • The −250 price leaves a narrow margin, and a hit prop still loses on an ordinary 0-for-4.
  17. Michael King pitching strikeouts 5+
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • King’s last 10 starts averaged 5.0 strikeouts and 5.97 innings; he reached 5+ in 6 of 10.
    • The matchup is neutral rather than favorable: clash K-rate delta is −0.46 percentage points.
  18. Chicago Cubs run line +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • King's 2026 ERA is 5.29 over his last three versus 3.10 over his last five.
    • King's TTO xwOBA rises from .2668 first time through to .3532 third time through, a late-order liability.
    • ProphetX contract price: 62.69¢; sharp reference is San Diego −130 moneyline, not a placement price.
    • San Diego's bullpen had zero innings yesterday and only 3.0 innings over three days; it can cover an early King exit.

Questions

Who won Cubs vs. Padres?

The Padres won 8-0 on Tuesday, Sep 29, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.