Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Chicago Fire: Final Score & Model Picks

FinalSoldier Field · Chicago

Vancouver Whitecaps

1–3Final

Chicago Fire

Score by period
Team	1	2	T
VANC	0	1	1
CHIC	1	2	3

How the picks did

Models went 0-8 on this game · −100% return

Vancouver Whitecaps to win2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Novig
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number Earned
Why 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day
- Warehouse model gives Vancouver a 52.5% win probability versus 20.0% Chicago and 27.4% draw.
- Vancouver’s away form: 5-2-3 with a +12 goal difference; Chicago’s home form: 4-4-2 with 0 goal difference.
- Vancouver has 12 players listed as out since its last match, including several regular starters; replacement quality is uncertain.
Number Earned
- 52.5% away-win probability from the Dixon-Coles model; fair line is -111 / about 53¢.
- Vancouver's opponent-adjusted xG profile is 1.89 for and 1.01 against per match.
- Only 9 Chicago and 12 Vancouver lineup spots are currently confirmed; the XI is not fully locked.
Vancouver Whitecaps win
−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Official preview identifies Chicago's square back line and counterattack space as the matchup to exploit.
- Vancouver leads the pregame profile in field tilt, 70.6% to 46.7%, and rolling shots, 18 to 13.
- Vancouver's 9.4 PPDA supports the regain-and-attack-quickly plan highlighted in the official preview.
- Chicago's Gregg Berhalter can use possession and pressing triggers to control territory and suppress transition chances.
Vancouver Whitecaps first team to score
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xGF: Vancouver 1.89 versus Chicago 1.10; adjusted xGA favors Vancouver 1.01 to 1.07.
- Model lambdas are Vancouver 1.50 and Chicago 0.82; Vancouver owns a 64.5% race share.
- Pinnacle's sharp total anchor is 3.25 goals; Kalshi's total ladder is monotone and liquid.
- No starting XI is posted at this look-ahead wake; key-player availability remains provisional.
No Goal first team to scoreLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 3¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle provides an independent total anchor: 3.5 goals, Over +100 / Under -113.
- Kalshi No Goal 2.5% and Over 0.5 goals 96.5% imply a 1.0-point complement gap only.
Both Teams To Score NO
−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Chicago scores 64.7%; Vancouver scores 78.5%; combined BTTS-YES read 50.8%, NO 49.2%.
- Asymmetric matchup: Chicago is the lower-output attack at 1.10 opp-adjusted xG; Vancouver is stronger at 1.89.
- Only 10 xG matches per team; the coverage sample is adequate but not deep.
Total goals under 2.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle lists total 3.2, Over -109/Under -104; different rung, context only.
- Only 10 xG matches per side, below the desk's 12-game top tier; the gap is roughly 0.9 goals.