FinalSports Illustrated Stadium · Harrison
San Diego
1–4Final
New York RB
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NYR | 3 | 1 | 4 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-14 on this game · −100% return
- San Diego spread −1−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsFair Price Pairs, Long Tail Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
Fair Price Pairs- the captured sportsbook board had no comparable -1 rung; this is priced against the exact ProphetX contract.
- New York RB's home result profile and San Diego's personnel turnover add uncertainty not captured by the rolling xG model.
Long Tail Pairs- Mikey Varas's confirmed San Diego XI retains the territorial press profile: 10.05 PPDA and .652 field tilt versus NYRB's 11.75 and .520.
- Soccer_game_features: San Diego leads the opponent-adjusted xG-difference read, +0.54 versus NYRB -0.38; lambdas are 1.86 away and 0.94 home.
- Most likely non-win: San Diego's territorial edge produces only a one-goal win, which does not clear -1, or NYRB holds the match level.
Deep Book- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-10T13:47:00-07:00. Price band passes. This is a half-size LEAN ticket.
- San Diego by exactly one pushes; a draw or New York RB win does not win the ticket.
- San Diego to win−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsLow Tide Line, Long Tail Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
Low Tide Line- Pinnacle makes San Diego the shortest three-way price at +151; sharp direction agrees with the projection.
- The roughly 19.4-point model-to-quote gap is unusually large and may reflect unmodeled information.
Long Tail Pairs- Michael Bradley’s New York RB faces San Diego’s more territorial, aggressive scheme: 0.65 field tilt and 10.05 PPDA versus 0.52 and 11.75.
- all feature flags are true with a nine-match minimum xG sample; this is a coaching/pace projection, not a table-position argument.
- No official starting XI is posted; personnel and role changes are unknown, so this remains a LEAN rather than a recommendation.
Number Earned- Current xG differential is +0.13 for San Diego versus -0.46 for New York RB across 20 matches.
- Away split: San Diego 1.72 opponent-adjusted xG for and 1.17 against; New York RB home split is 1.08 for and 1.46 against.
- New York RB's home advantage and a 23.5% model draw probability make the three-way moneyline high variance.
- San Diego−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Varas’s 4-3-3 uses a front-three man press that can force New York’s direct buildup long.
- San Diego leads field tilt 0.65 to 0.52 and posts the lower PPDA, 10.05 to 11.75.
- Bradley intended a wider possession model, but New York’s current directness ratio remains 1.63 versus San Diego’s 0.60.
- San Diego is winless in its last five, 0-3-2, while New York is 2-2-1.
- San Diego FC first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle total is 3.5 at -109/-103; Kalshi Over 0.5 is 97.5%, anchoring No Goal near 2.5%.
- FTTS prices sum to 1.00; all three contracts trade with 2-cent spreads.
- Opposition-adjusted samples cover only 9-10 matches; starting elevens are not posted.
- Over 3.5 goals scored NO−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI includes Emil Forsberg, Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting and Jorge Ruvalcaba for New York RB; Anders Dreyer and Marcus Ingvartsen for San Diego.
- New York RB XI attacking xG is 1.83 versus 2.75 recent norm, a 33.5% shortfall; San Diego is down 31.2%.
- Proportional repricing moves total lambda from 2.80 to 1.91: 0.94+1.86 to 0.63+1.28.
- XI quality is model-based with 8 known New York RB and 7 known San Diego starters; no independently stamped publication time exists.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Coherence check passes: neither side has an aggressive two-way press profile, with PPDA 13.0 and 13.94; recent form does not force a high-total read.
- Only 9-10 current xG matches support the build, so this moderate sample carries a wide error bar.
Show all 10 picks
- Under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: New York RB 1.08 for / 1.46 against; San Diego 1.72 / 1.17.
- Under loses at three or more goals; the model assigns approximately 53.0% to over 2.5.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: New York RB scores about 68%; San Diego about 80%, implying BTTS YES near 54% and NO near 46%.
- The sides are not a classic symmetric BTTS-free matchup: San Diego's attack is strong, but New York RB's home attack is the weaker side at 1.08 oppadj xG-for.
- XG coverage is only 9 matches for San Diego and 10 for New York RB, so the scoring estimates remain sample-sensitive.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle independently posts Under 3.5 at -103; Kalshi offers the same rung near 50c.
- Opp-adjusted xG: NYRB expected 1.13 (1.08 xGF, 1.17 SD xGA); San Diego 1.59 (1.72 xGF, 1.46 NYRB xGA); total 2.72.
- Four or more goals, especially from an early penalty, red card, set piece, or defensive error, loses the under.
- San Diego spread YES 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full xG coverage: New York RB opp-adjusted xGF 1.08 and xGA 1.46; San Diego opp-adjusted xGF 1.72 and xGA 1.17; counts 9 home and 10 away.
- 2026 MLS empirical distribution across 379 matches: away margins of 2+ occurred 11.6%, while 0/1/2-goal outcomes held most mass; the matchup-specific favorite adjustment supports a higher away-2+ tail.
- San Diego loses this contract unless it wins by more than 1.5 goals; wins by 0 or 1, draws, and New York RB wins are losses.
Questions
Who won San Diego vs. New York RB?
New York RB won 4-1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.