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FinalDick's Sporting Goods Park · Denver
SJ Earthquakes
1–1Final
Colorado Rapids
Score by period
Team12T
SJ011
CR101

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match total under 2.5 goals 41¢

Why Early Whistle likes it: Opponent-adjusted rates: Colorado 1.62 xGF / 0.82 xGA; San Jose 1.24 xGF / 1.44 xGA.

Early WhistleUp 3% return this season · 157 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-10 on this game · −18% return

  1. Colorado Rapids to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsLow Tide Line, Soccer Default Picks +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Low Tide Line
      • This is live at 0-0 around 21'; the warehouse model is pregame, so the in-play adjustment is uncertain.
      Soccer Default Picks
      • Colorado's rolling xG: 1.83 created and 0.80 allowed per match.
      • San Jose's rolling xG profile is weaker: 1.34 created, 1.47 allowed.
      • Colorado's Elo is 1,446 versus San Jose's 1,511; form samples are only 10 matches.
      Number Earned
      • The model's expected goals are 1.73 for Colorado and 0.76 for San Jose; fair YES value is about 60¢.
      • Colorado's home form is 5-2-3 with 12 goals for; San Jose is 3-3-4 away with 19 goals allowed.
      • Elo disagrees materially: San Jose rates 64.93 points higher than Colorado overall.
    • Colorado Rapids
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

      Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Colorado presses more aggressively: 9.93 PPDA versus San Jose's 12.47.
      • Rapids lead field tilt .602-.488 and projected xG 1.83-1.34, supporting Wells' high-intensity control plan.
      • Matt Wells' stated 2026 emphasis on intensity and set pieces fits a home matchup against San Jose's direct approach.
      • Colorado's Elo is 1446 versus San Jose's 1511, so the rating layer disagrees with the tactical read.
    • Match total under 2.5 goals
      +144%Won

      Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

      Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted rates: Colorado 1.62 xGF / 0.82 xGA; San Jose 1.24 xGF / 1.44 xGA.
      • Pinnacle's sharp anchor is 3 goals, Over +101 / Under -116; the ladder is monotone and liquid at 2.5.
      • Official previews do not confirm starting elevens or either goalkeeper; a late key attacking or goalkeeping change could move the rate.
    • Total goals under 3.5
      +59%Won

      Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

      XI DeltaUp 138% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected total is 2.72 goals from the feature xG rates; Poisson P(0-3) is approximately 71%.
      • ProphetX implies 62.7% at -168, leaving roughly 8 percentage points of projection edge.
      • Colorado's XI is unchanged from its latest match; San Jose retains 10 of 11 starters from its latest match.
      • A fast opening goal, penalty, or red card can push a 2.72-goal projection to four or more.
    • San Jose Earthquakes first team to score
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

      First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Kalshi San Jose is 37.5c midpoint; model edge is 17.3 probability points.
      • Pinnacle independently anchors the match total at 3.0 goals: Over +102, Under -115.
      • Hazard check: recent MLS goals were 7, 11, 8, 9, 14, 14 by 15-minute bucket; late scoring is higher. Applied correction raises model No Goal from 4.3% to 4.8%.
      • Starting XIs are not posted; player availability can change the two hazards.
    • SJ Earthquakes to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

      Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • confirmed 11-man XIs; exact-contract history moved from 34.25¢ pre-lineup to 33.33¢ current.
      • Colorado starter attack xG is 1.84 versus a 2.69 usual-XI baseline (-0.84).
      • SJ starter attack xG is 2.41 versus a 2.33 usual-XI baseline (+0.08); coverage has 9 Colorado and 8 SJ prior XI samples.
      • Colorado is 5-2-3 at home while SJ is 3-3-4 away, so venue form can overwhelm the lineup downgrade.
    Show all 15 picks
    1. Over 1.5 1H goals scored
      +64%Won

      Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

      Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kalshi full-match ladder fits Poisson mean 3.04; measured MLS split is 37.6% first-half goals, implying 1H mean 1.14.
      • Kalshi 1H ladder fits mean 1.40; the 0.26-goal gap is above the 0.25 RECOMMENDED threshold.
      • The reconciled Poisson probability of 1H under 1.5 is approximately 68.5%; Kalshi NO is 61¢.
      • The 37.6% first-half share comes from only 30 recent MLS fixtures and may not represent this matchup.
    2. Total Goals (Regular Time) under 2.5
      +156%Won

      Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

      Open PlayUp 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Coverage window is 9 Colorado and 10 SJ matches with xG; both sides have 14 rest days, so no short-rest down-tilt.
      • Coherence check passes: Colorado's L5 scoring margin is -0.6 and SJ's L12 margin is -0.8; the non-mutual pressing profile does not force a goals-up adjustment.
      • The xG sample is MODERATE rather than deep: 9-10 matches leaves meaningful model error.
    3. SJ Earthquakes over 3.5 Total Goals
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

      Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dixon-Coles P(4+ goals) is approximately 51.3%, about 13.1 percentage points above the 38.17¢ venue price.
      • Opponent-adjusted xG paired average is approximately 3.15 goals: Colorado attack/defense 1.46/1.96 and SJ attack/defense 1.66/1.22.
      • The live ladder quotes over 2.5 at 60.63¢, over 3.5 at 38.17¢, and over 4.5 at 20.62¢; the model places more mass above 3.5 than this smooth ladder.
      • The most likely loss is 0-3 goals; the model still assigns approximately 48.7% to under 3.5.
    4. Game total under 2.5 goals
      +150%Won

      Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

      Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kalshi over drifted from 61.5c opening to 60.5c; ProphetX under moved from 38.46c to 38.76c, both favoring under.
      • Colorado and San Jose’s model goal rates still allow three goals; one early goal materially widens the tail.
    5. Total goals over 2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

      Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kalshi ladder implies about 3.04 goals through the 5.5 rung; the exact Over 2.5 raw yes_ask is 0.60, a fraction already in probability regime (60¢).
      • Dixon-Coles model_p_over_2_5 is 0.72, materially above the xG-Poisson estimate; that >0.5-goal-equivalent disagreement signals model uncertainty and forces a LEAN band.
    6. Match total under 3.5 goals
      +61%Won

      Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

      Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model total is 2.48 expected goals; Poisson translation gives about 76% for 0-3 goals.
      • Colorado's home xGA is 0.80; both teams have 14 days' rest and no congestion flag.
      • The feature model was computed through September 26, so current tactical and personnel changes may be underweighted.
    7. Both Teams To Score
      +61%Won

      Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

      Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kalshi raw yes_ask 0.62 is a fraction, i.e. 62¢; yes_bid 0.60 makes a 2¢ spread.
      • Colorado scoring read 77.3%: 1.59 xGF versus SJ's 1.38 xGA; Colorado has 18/18 xG matches.
      • SJ scoring read 84.7%: 1.66 xGF versus Colorado's 2.09 xGA; SJ has 20/20 xG matches.
      • The scoring read averages attack and opponent defense and assumes approximate independence.
    8. Over 3.5 regular-time goals
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

      Long Tail PairsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Matt Wells’ aggressive, ambitious Colorado identity plus San Jose’s direct 0.89 style points to an open pace; official preview says Colorado had a weeklong international-window break, not a fatigue slowdown.
      • Colorado’s home xG for/against are 1.59/2.09; San Jose’s away figures are 1.66/1.38, a matchup with chance creation on both sides rather than a one-sided suppression script.
      • Pinnacle is at a 3.0 total with Over +101; that is context only, not the exact 3.5 rung, while ProphetX’s 2.5 over projection held near 60.63c.
      • Most likely loss: three or fewer total goals; the 3.5 threshold needs four, and early finishing variance can overwhelm the pace read.
    9. Total goals over 3.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

      Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • current expected-goals form totals 3.69 (Colorado 2.09, SJ 1.59); this is the wake's one off-thesis leg.
      • Pinnacle's regular-time total is 3, with over 3 at +101; context only, not the placement price.
      • Most likely loss path is three or fewer goals; the current xG average is not a calibrated four-goal probability.

    Questions

    Who won SJ Earthquakes vs. Colorado Rapids?

    Colorado Rapids won 1-1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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