FinalAtlanta Stadium · Atlanta
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CINC | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| AU | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-11 on this game · −100% return
- Match total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsEarly Whistle, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Early Whistle- Opponent-adjusted scoring/conceding blend gives Atlanta 1.33 and Cincinnati 1.55 goals, total rate 2.88.
- That blend implies 67.3% for 0-3 goals; the warehouse Dixon-Coles pair (1.22, 1.78) still implies about 64.8%.
- The blended rates are only supported by nine xG matches per side, so estimation error remains material.
Snapp Decision of the Day- 2.88 combined model xG implies about 67.4% for 0-3 goals under a Poisson total.
- The Polymarket US Under contract costs 52¢; including its quoted fee schedule, effective cost is about 53.7¢.
- Atlanta conceded 18 goals in 10 home matches, and Cincinnati conceded 14 in 10 away matches.
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Long HaulWhy 2 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs- Confirmed XI attacking xG totals 2.35: Atlanta United 1.16 plus Cincinnati 1.20, versus the warehouse pregame total of 2.88, a -0.52 delta.
- Both teams' confirmed starters cleared the lineup gate; XI-quality baselines have 10 known samples for Cincinnati and Atlanta.
- Three or more goals loses; an early goal, penalty, or red card can open the match.
Long Haul- The model-to-contract gap is 14.38 percentage points; this is a model lean, not a devig or payout-only argument.
- related over 2.5 is -245; under is the contrarian regular-time total selection.
- No usable Long Haul pillar: rest readings are 357/321 days and fail the >10-day sanity check; travel is unrecorded.
- under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Long Tail PairsWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil Pairs- Features were computed through 2025-12-13; current-season transfers and tactics may have made the fitted lambdas stale.
Long Tail Pairs- Tata Martino said Atlanta must avoid a blow-for-blow game and stop Cincinnati dictating tempo; his stated transition-control plan points to a managed pace.
- Confirmed XI: Cincinnati is without Evander, and the posted XI is in the lineup feed; that removes a primary attacking creator from the direct-transition matchup.
- Most likely loss: Cincinnati's direct 1.94 style creates transition chances and the match reaches three goals.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Averaging opponent-adjusted attack and defense pairs gives 2.64 expected goals versus a market-implied total near 3.5.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per side, below the 12-game preferred tier; rolling rates may be noisy.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full-match ladder fits a Poisson mean of 2.62 goals; MLS recent first-half share measured 40.3%.
- That split reconciles to a 1H mean of 1.06, versus 0.76 from the quoted 1H ladder: 0.30 goals of incoherence.
- The match is live at 25' with a 0-0 score; the remaining first-half window is shorter than pregame.
- Game total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: 67.5% for three or fewer goals from Dixon-Coles lambdas 1.63 home and 1.25 away.
- Expected goals total 2.88; both teams have 10 competitive matches in the feature sample.
- Pinnacle's devigged total points under, about 51.5% versus 48.5% over.
- The projection-versus-price gap is unusually large; model miss or an unrecorded lineup change could explain it.
Show all 8 picks
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- current kickoff xG read gives Atlanta scoring 78.8% and Cincinnati 73.6%; implied BTTS YES 58.1%, NO 41.9%.
- Symmetric case: both sides score often, but the combined independent read still makes BTTS-NO materially more likely than the venue implies.
- Pinnacle and Kalshi both price BTTS-NO near 30%, so unmodeled lineup or market information may invalidate the xG projection.
- Atlanta United spread YES 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Atlanta xG inputs are 1.36 attack and Cincinnati 1.61 defensive xGA; mirror inputs are Cincinnati 1.32 and Atlanta 1.28, with model lambdas 1.63 and 1.25.
- Recent 120 MLS finals: 37 draws, 21 one-goal home wins, 16 two-goal home wins, and 10 home wins by 3+; this supports a lumpy but modest projection.
- The 120-match distribution is league-wide rather than team-specific, and only 10 xG matches support the matchup lambdas.
Questions
Who won Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United?
Cincinnati won 3-1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.