FinalBank of America Stadium · Charlotte
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALL | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CHA | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonCharlotte spread NO 2.5 90¢
HandicapDown 7% this season · 642 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-5 on this game · −67% return
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 76¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recommended band; PROJECTION edge class.
- 9 xG-covered games each; Poisson translation gives 81.8% for 0, 4 goals.
- Pinnacle same-rung under 4.5 at -319; our fair probability is 8.7 points higher after devig-free model pricing.
- Only 9 xG games per team: moderate coverage, with a wider error bar than a 20-game sample.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle BTTS NO +189 de-vigs to 33.3%, versus Kalshi NO at 34¢.
- Charlotte scoring read 76.8%: 1.47 oppadj xGF/match versus Dallas 1.45 oppadj xGA, 9/10 xG games.
- Dallas scoring read 78.1%: 1.16 oppadj xGF/match versus Charlotte 1.87 oppadj xGA, 10/10 xG games.
- The 40.1% NO estimate depends on combining attack and opponent-defense xG rather than a fully fitted match model.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kalshi's visible over-rung probabilities sum to 3.31 goals before the unobserved >6.5 tail; market-implied total is approximately 3.3 versus 2.83.
- live Pinnacle total is 3.2, with Under -105; the independent line also sits below Kalshi's 3.5 rung.
- Dixon-Coles over 2.5 is 54.2%, broadly confirming the xG-derived scoring level; estimated Under 3.5 probability is 68.5%.
- Charlotte's PPDA is 13.9 versus Dallas at 20.3, with field tilt .440/.399; a Charlotte press-driven transition game can produce four goals.
- Match total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model totals 2.85 expected goals; Poisson translation gives roughly 68% for under 3.5.
- Charlotte averaged 1.1 goals across 10 home matches; Dallas averaged 1.5 across 10 away matches.
- Opponent-adjusted xGA is 1.71 for Charlotte and 1.71 for Dallas.
- The model makes over 2.5 goals 54.2%, so the 3-goal boundary remains live.
- Charlotte spread NO 2.5+11%Won
Taken at 90¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 days - Dallas spread NO 1.5+18%Won
Taken at 85¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
Show all 7 picks
- BTTS No−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Tailgate
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home and away xG-for rates are modest: Charlotte 1.24 and Dallas 1.13 per match.
- The model's expected goals are 1.55 Charlotte and 1.30 Dallas, supporting a meaningful clean-sheet path.
- Charlotte and Dallas allow 1.75 and 2.01 expected goals per match, respectively; both defenses can concede.
Questions
Who won Dallas vs. Charlotte?
Charlotte won 3-2 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.