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FinalBoston Stadium · Foxborough
Seattle Sounders
3–0Final
New England
Score by period
Team12T
SEAT123
NE000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total goals under 3.5 59¢

Why Two Nil likes it: Opponent-adjusted xG blend: New England expected 1.12 (1.18 xGF with Seattle 1.05 xGA); Seattle expected 1.49 (1.65 xGF with New England 1.33 xGA); computed total 2.60.

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-4 on this game · +65% return

  1. Seattle Sounders to win4 models agree
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Low Tide Line +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • Confirmed XI returns Cristian Roldán (7.03 rating, 0.10 xG/90), Nouhou (6.76), and Danny Musovski (0.28 xG/90).
    • Seattle's confirmed XI attacking xG is 2.72 versus its usual-XI baseline of 2.56; opponent-adjusted form is 1.65 xG for and 1.05 against.
    • New England's confirmed XI also improves materially: 1.47 attacking xG versus a 1.04 usual-XI baseline.
    Low Tide Line
    • Seattle’s rolling xG profile leads New England: 1.76 for and 1.09 against versus 1.26 and 1.54.
    • Seattle has 14 rolling form points to New England’s 11 across 10 matches.
    • Sharp sportsbook reference is materially lower at roughly 36.3% for Seattle, so the model may be missing market information.
    Long Tail Pairs
    • Marko Mitrović’s official preview emphasizes New England’s gritty, back-to-front defensive scheme; Seattle’s attacking profile is stronger.
    • soccer_game_features: Seattle’s opponent-adjusted xG differential is +0.59 versus New England’s -0.15; lambdas are 1.63 versus 0.92.
    • Most likely loss: New England’s compact defensive commitment and home advantage suppress Seattle’s chance quality.
    Number Earned
    • Seattle’s away opponent-adjusted xG is 1.65 versus New England’s home 1.18.
    • Confirmed lineups show both full starting elevens; no current fixture-specific sidelined rows were returned.
    • The warehouse feature build is timestamped 2025-11-08, so model calibration may be stale despite current form and lineup checks.
  2. Match total under 3.5 goals2 models agree
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsEarly Whistle, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Early Whistle
    • Opponent-adjusted rates give New England 1.79 xGF/1.30 xGA and Seattle 1.37/1.35.
    • Blending attack with opponent concession rates gives lambdas 1.57 and 1.34, total 2.91; Poisson under 3.5 is about 66.7%.
    • Only nine xG-backed matches feed the opponent-adjusted rates, so sampling error is material.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Combined warehouse expected goals are 2.54, with model under-2.5 probability at 53.2% before the extra half-goal.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG allows 1.33 for New England and 1.05 for Seattle, keeping the matchup near a three-goal baseline.
    • New England lost several defenders and Seattle lost a key defender, potentially increasing transition chances.
  3. Total goals under 3.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted xG blend: New England expected 1.12 (1.18 xGF with Seattle 1.05 xGA); Seattle expected 1.49 (1.65 xGF with New England 1.33 xGA); computed total 2.60.
    • Seattle's min coverage is only 8 matches, below the preferred 12-match tier; the roughly 0.7-goal model/market gap is actionable but not huge enough to ignore model error.
  4. No Goal first team to scoreLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 3¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Constant-hazard lambdas are 0.92 home and 1.62 away; model P(No Goal) is 7.9% before correction.
    • Historical MLS goals rise late: 356/1,486 in minutes 76, 90 versus 179/1,486 in minutes 0, 15; applied +0.6 points.
    • Coverage is 8 home and 8 away xG matches; has_model_p is true and min_gp_with_xg is 8.
    • Kalshi Over 0.5 is 96¢, implying 4.0% No Goal; the direct identity gap is only 1.5 points.
  5. Seattle Sounders @ New England total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed XI returned 11 starters for both teams; current starter attacking xG is 4.03 versus 5.01 for the usual-XI baselines, a -0.97 delta.
    • New England's current XI contributes 1.47 attacking xG versus its 2.61 usual-XI baseline; Seattle's 2.57 is only 0.17 above its 2.40 baseline.
    • The 2.5 threshold loses at three goals, with no push; one early goal can open the match.
  6. Over 1.5 1H goals scored
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent MLS sample: 44 of 121 goals came in the first half, a 36.4% share.
    • Holding the full ladder and measured split implies 1H mean 1.16; the quoted 1H fit is 1.45.
    • The split sample is 40 recent MLS fixtures; 36.4% may regress toward the league norm.
Show all 11 picks
  1. Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Open PlayUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair total 2.91 goals: opponent-adjusted home expectation (1.79 xGF, 1.35 away xGA) plus away expectation (1.38 xGF, 1.30 home xGA).
    • Coverage is 10 New England and 8 Seattle feature games; opponent-adjusted inputs have 9 xG-backed games each, a moderate MLS sample.
    • PPDA is 15.85 for New England and 14.12 for Seattle; the small tempo-up tilt does not overcome the 2.91-goal base, while field tilt is mixed (.588/.477).
    • Seattle has only 8 games in the required raw xG window; this is moderate coverage, not a 20-game deep sample.
  2. Seattle Sounders under 2.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle's opponent-adjusted defensive xG-against of 1.05 and New England's 1.18 attacking xG-for keep the combined fitted expectation at 2.55.
    • Features were computed through 2025-11-08; current roster changes can make the fitted lambdas stale.
  3. Both Teams To Score NO
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MLS fixture; New England scoring read 67.9%: average of 1.18 opp-adjusted xG-for and Seattle's 1.09 xG-against.
    • Seattle scoring read 79.7%: average of 1.65 opp-adjusted xG-for and New England's 1.54 xG-against.
    • Independent side product gives BTTS YES 54.1%, hence BTTS NO 45.9%; this is a moderate symmetric scoring case, not a weak-attacker shutdown spot.
    • The model still makes YES the more likely outcome at 54.1%; this is a price projection, not a categorical BTTS-NO call.
  4. New England spread NO 1.5Favorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; λ New England 0.92, Seattle 1.62, with has_xg true and 10/10 xG matches each.
    • Dixon-Coles gives New England 7.1% to win by 2+; the corresponding NO probability is 92.9%.
    • New England’s last 10 MLS home matches produced only 2 margins of 2+; the 100-match MLS sample was 24%.
    • Only 10 xG-backed matches per side and 10 team home/away observations; the distribution estimate is sample-sensitive.
  5. Total Goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-10T15:47:56-07:00. The $300 availability and -250 to +300 price gates pass.
    • Three or more goals loses. The model mean is 2.54 goals, so the margin is narrow.

Questions

Who won Seattle Sounders vs. New England?

Seattle Sounders won 3-0 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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