Capitals vs. LightningFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBenchmark International Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TB | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTampa Bay Lightning to win −200
Why high-confidence main markets likes it: Independent fair probability 68%; fair price approximately -213.
high-confidence main marketsDown 2% this season · 361 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-0 on this game · +68% return
- Tampa Bay Lightning to win+50%Won
Taken at −200 on FanDuel
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent fair probability 68%; fair price approximately -213.
- Tampa finished 2025-26 with 106 points versus Washington's 95.
- Tampa outscored Washington 3.488 to 3.183 goals per game and allowed 2.793 versus 2.902.
- The current sample is one game: Washington won 5-2 while Tampa lost 5-1.
- Alex Ovechkin under 2.5 shots on goal+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Action PRO projects 2.18 shots, 12.8% below the 2.5 posted line.
- Ovechkin had just 1 shot in Washington's season opener, 60% below tonight's threshold.
- Tampa Bay allowed an NHL-best 26.7 shots per game last season.
- The projection is model-based rather than a full 5-10-game warehouse sample; exact matchup usage is uncertain.
Questions
Who won Capitals vs. Lightning?
The Lightning won 3–1 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.