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Islanders vs. RangersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMadison Square Garden
Islanders
2–5Final
Rangers
Score by period
Team123T
NYI0202
NYR1225

Top model pick, graded

Won

New York Rangers over 1.5 goals 35¢

Why Backup Tax likes it: Official Islanders news confirmed Semyon Varlamov; it is his first regular-season start in 676 days.

Backup TaxNew · 8 graded so far
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How the picks did

Models went 10-2 on this game · +89% return

  1. New York Rangers to win2 models agree
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsScratch Shift, high-confidence main markets
    Why 2 models like it
    Scratch Shift
    • Varlamov is confirmed for his first start since Nov. 29, 2024; Shesterkin is confirmed opposite.
    • Varlamov's 2024 save rate was .8869 versus Sorokin's .9006 in 2025, a 1.37-point gap.
    • Varlamov has not played a regular-season game since 2024; the cross-season save-rate comparison is noisy.
    high-confidence main markets
    • 63% independent win estimate; fair price -170 versus DraftKings -162.
    • Igor Shesterkin is confirmed at .934 save percentage, 1.67 GAA and 3 quality starts in 3 games.
    • Islanders own the better early 5v5 Corsi rate: 46.8% versus New York's 44.3%.
  2. New York Rangers over 1.5 goals
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    Backup TaxNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Official Islanders news confirmed Semyon Varlamov; it is his first regular-season start in 676 days.
    • Igor Shesterkin is confirmed for New York and has opened 2026-27 with .933, .960 and .909 save percentages.
    • Pinnacle's devigged Rangers win baseline is 58.6%; a 3-4 point backup adjustment puts the margin probability around 38-39%.
    • Varlamov owns a .950 save percentage in six career Islanders starts at Madison Square Garden.
  3. New York Rangers puck line −1.5
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Form GapDown 32% profit over 11 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Trailing-25 goal-difference gap is 1.20 goals per game: Rangers +0.76, Islanders -0.44.
    • Igor Shesterkin is confirmed to start; Semyon Varlamov makes his first NHL start since Nov. 29, 2024.
    • US books price Rangers -1.5 at +155 to +168, no cheaper than the exchange contract.
    • The 1.20-goal gap only meets the qualifying threshold; the opening-week sample includes just four Rangers and two Islanders games.
  4. New York Rangers win by over 1.5 goals
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    Margin MathDown 105% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 42.7% measured 2+ win base rate for the strongest-favorite bucket.
    • Rangers’ trailing goal-difference mark is +1.2, meeting the brief’s strongest-favorite cutoff.
    • Igor Shesterkin is confirmed to start; he is not a backup projection.
    • Early-season shrinkage toward last season could pull the matchup fair below 42.7%.
  5. Islanders–Rangers under 5.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mathew Barzal is listed injured/out by the Islanders; his 20:39 average ice time was 34.4% of regulation and his 19 goals in 81 games imply 0.23 direct goals lost per game.
    • Using a conservative 0.30-goal total downgrade for Barzal's scoring and playmaking, my rebuilt under probability is about 51%.
    • Polymarket US under 5.5 costs 0.47; the total remains 5.5 and only moved about one cent after the 11:15 a.m. team update.
    • Barzal was already on injured reserve with a near-term return date, so the market may have anticipated his absence before the team update.
  6. New York Islanders–New York Rangers game total over 6.5
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The same 6.45-goal projection implies a 46.6% Poisson chance of 7+ goals before the small positive-correlation uplift.
    • The brief's empty-net correction specifically targets close favorites, with late pull-goalie scoring increasing the upper tail.
    • US books are worse on this rung: DraftKings is +125 and FanDuel +126 versus the exchange's 41¢ cost.
    • The 6.5 rung needs at least seven goals, so one-goal variance around the mean dominates this higher threshold.
Show all 11 picks
  1. New York Islanders–New York Rangers game total over 5.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Team goal rates total 6.25 per game; adding the brief's 0.20 empty-net adjustment gives a 6.45-goal mean.
    • Poisson base estimates are 62.4% for 6+ goals and 46.6% for 7+ before the small positive-correlation uplift.
    • Pinnacle has the sharp total at 5.5 and prices the Rangers only -153, a close-favorite profile rather than a -300 blowout.
    • The form sample is tiny: Islanders have only 2 games and Rangers 4, so the 6.45 mean is noisy.
  2. New York Islanders–New York Rangers first-period total under 1.5 goals
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5.5 game-total anchor nests to a 1.56 first-period mean using the desk's 1.76/5.96 period share.
    • Current team-rate blend implies only 4.38 expected full-game goals, reinforcing the lower first-period estimate.
    • The team-rate sample is only six combined games, including just two Islanders games.
  3. Islanders-Rangers under 5.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5.29-goal Poisson mean after 50% early-season shrink toward 3.068 league goals/game.
    • Varlamov and Shesterkin were both listed confirmed; prior GAA inputs were 2.89 and 2.50.
    • Sharp 5.5 line agrees with the goalie-led low-scoring setup; exchange under is cheaper than the sportsbook under price.
    • Varlamov has no 2026 starts; his projection relies on a small 2024-25 sample of 10 starts.
  4. Alexis Lafrenière over 0.5 points
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 points in his last 10 games (2 goals, 4 assists), a 20% lift over the 0.5-point line.
    • Projected on New York's top line with Mika Zibanejad and Gabe Perreault.
    • Islanders start Semyon Varlamov in his first NHL appearance since Nov. 29, 2024.
    • One point is a high-variance outcome; a strong goalie performance can erase a favorable matchup.
  5. New York Rangers −1.5
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters: Semyon Varlamov returns for the Islanders after no NHL appearance since Nov. 29, 2024; Igor Shesterkin starts for New York.
    • Goal-difference projection, including the +0.3-goal backup penalty and empty-net scoring, gives Rangers 39% to win by 2+.
    • Rangers moneyline is -150 to -162 across sharp/US references, clearing the -140 gate; no US book offers a cheaper Rangers -1.5 price than 36c.
    • Rangers were only +1.25 goals per game in four current-season games; early form is a thin sample.

Questions

Who won Islanders vs. Rangers?

The Rangers won 5–2 on Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026.

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