Red Wings vs. CanadiensFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCentre Bell
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDetroit Red Wings puck line +2.5 70¢
Why Fair Dog likes it: Model puts Montréal win by 3+ near 25, 26%; Detroit +2.5 fair cover is about 74, 75%.
Fair DogDown 11% this season · 41 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-5 on this game · −31% return
- Montréal Canadiens to win+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsRegulation Gap, Backup TaxWhy 2 models like it
Regulation Gap- two-way Montréal implies 64.5%; 60-minute Montréal implies 60.3%, tie implies 23.8%.
- Sharp reference is Pinnacle -199; the ProphetX two-way quote is materially less expensive without changing the side.
- Daniil Tarasov is making his first start, creating substantial goalie-performance uncertainty.
Backup Tax- Tarasov is confirmed for Detroit, his first start after Gibson opened the season; the backup signal is fresh.
- Tarasov posted a .895 save percentage over 31 starts last season; current relief save rate was .889.
- Pinnacle's current devigged Montreal probability is 64.4%, so the edge is only about 3.5 points after adjustment.
- Detroit Red Wings over 2.5 team goals−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Whistle CrewDown 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Detroit averages 2.5 goals through four games, while Montréal has allowed 4.75 per game.
- Montréal’s current PK is 70.6%, and Detroit is averaging 3.75 opposing power-play opportunities per game.
- Both Detroit’s 13.0 and Montréal’s 13.5 PIM/team-game rates exceed the 10.5 league average.
- Detroit has scored only 10 goals in four games, so the offensive sample can regress sharply.
- Over 5.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
Whistle CrewDown 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Crew averages 6.11 power-play chances per game across the referees’ last 40-game samples.
- Chris Rooney ranks 5th of 45 referees at 6.33 PP chances/game; Garrett Rank adds 5.90.
- Detroit and Montréal average 13.0 and 13.5 PIM/team game versus the league’s 10.5.
- Only Rooney is clearly top-quartile; Rank’s 5.90 rate is below the modeled top-quartile group.
- Montréal Canadiens puck line −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Detroit confirmed Daniil Tarasov, a backup deployment behind John Gibson; the +0.3-goal backup adjustment supports Montréal by 2+.
- Montréal is -198 to -205 on the live moneyline, clearing the -140 gate; its -1.5 is +120 to +124 at US books.
- Current four-game rates: Montréal 3.5 GF/game, Detroit 3.5 GA/game; goal-difference model includes empty-net scoring.
- Both teams are starting non-primary goalies: Jacob Fowler is confirmed for Montréal too, offsetting part of the Detroit backup adjustment.
- Goal in first 10 minutes−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
First TenDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Jakub Dobes has stopped 78 of 91 shots (.8571) this season; Detroit is averaging 33.5 shots.
- Daniil Tarasov is confirmed for Detroit and has an .8889 save rate in a small early sample.
- Both confirmed goalies grade shaky, while Montréal's home setting supplies a modest scoring lift.
- Tarasov's .8889 is based on only nine shots and he has not started a game this season.
- Detroit Red Wings puck line +2.5+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model puts Montréal win by 3+ near 25, 26%; Detroit +2.5 fair cover is about 74, 75%.
- Through four games, Montréal is allowing 4.75 goals per game versus Detroit's 3.50; early-season defensive rates widen the dog's margin protection.
- Detroit is on the second night of a back-to-back after Friday's 6-3 loss; fatigue and an empty-net goal can turn a two-goal game into a loss.
Show all 8 picks
- Detroit Red Wings and Montréal Canadiens over 0.5 first-period goals−100%Lost
Taken at 82¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Matchup rates imply 7.13 goals: Detroit 3.63 expected, Montréal 3.50.
- Nested period means produce a first-period mean near 2.05 after the 0.2 non-regulation allowance.
- The team-rate sample is only four games; Montréal's 4.75 goals allowed per game may be noisy.
- Viktor Arvidsson points under 0.5+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1 5v5 point in 4 games (25% recent hit rate) versus a 0.5 line priced around 58% implied.
- Fresh PrizePicks board lists Arvidsson for this game; NHL preview projects him on Detroit's top line.
- Four-game 5v5 sample excludes power-play production and is too small for a stable rate.
Questions
Who won Red Wings vs. Canadiens?
The Canadiens won 1-0 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.