Stars vs. PenguinsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalPPG Paints Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 6.5 53¢
Why Cohort Check likes it: Current-season rates: Dallas 2.50 GF/1.50 GA; Pittsburgh 4.00 GF/2.60 GA across nine games.
Cohort CheckDown 9% this season · 56 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-3 on this game · +22% return
- Game total under 6.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCohort Check, Morning PuckWhy 2 models like it
Cohort Check- Current-season rates: Dallas 2.50 GF/1.50 GA; Pittsburgh 4.00 GF/2.60 GA across nine games.
- Confirmed starters are Jake Oettinger (.967 save rate) and Arturs Silovs (.859); conservative goal expectation is 5.3.
- Only four-to-five regular-season games per team make current scoring rates noisy.
Morning Puck- Model total is approximately 5.9 goals after early-season shrink toward the 3.10 league scoring average.
- Projected Jake Oettinger (.967 save percentage, three starts) offsets Pittsburgh's 4.0 goals-per-game attack.
- Pittsburgh is on a back-to-back and has played three games in four days; fatigue can create defensive breakdowns.
- Dallas Stars puck line −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US
Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dallas starts confirmed Jake Oettinger (.967 SV%, 0.67 GAA in three 2026-27 starts).
- Pittsburgh starts Arturs Silovs after Sergei Murashov worked Friday; Silovs is at .859 SV% and 3.38 GAA in three starts.
- Goal-difference distribution includes the brief's +0.3-goal backup penalty and empty-net scoring; P(Dallas wins by 2+) is 42%.
- Silovs and Murashov have operated as a tandem; calling Silovs the backup is less certain than a fixed No. 2 depth chart.
- Game total over 6−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: 6.72 goals, 6.38 from 50/50 current/2025-26 scoring-rate shrinkage plus a 0.34 empty-net adjustment.
- Dallas is the clear favorite at -170; recent results include one-goal games on both sides, supporting a lead-and-pull script rather than an automatic blowout.
- Projection edge: 0.72 goals above the listed 6.0, with the empty-net component specifically included rather than relying on raw scoring rates alone.
- Both starters remain unconfirmed: Dallas's official guide says Casey DeSmith could start, while another preview projects Jake Oettinger; Pittsburgh is projected to use Arturs Silovs.
- Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Novig
Dog CushionDown 23% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dallas averages -0.08 goal differential and Pittsburgh -0.04 over the trailing 25; gap is only 0.04.
- Pittsburgh loses this ticket by losing by two or more; the baseline assigns that outcome about 34%.
- Pittsburgh Penguins two-way to win+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 3.54-point internal-coherence gap clears the brief's 3-point threshold in Pittsburgh's favor.
- Jake Oettinger is confirmed for Dallas, while Arturs Silovs is only listed as likely for Pittsburgh three hours before puck drop.
- Jason Robertson under 1.5 points+49%Won
Taken at −205 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3 of Robertson's 4 games stayed below 2 points; his early-season line is 1, 2, 0, 0.
- Robertson averages 0.75 points across those four games, with only one multi-point outing.
- Sportsbook participant pricing verifies Robertson for this game; no current injury designation is listed.
- Pittsburgh has allowed 3.2 goals and 30.4 shots per game, an above-average environment for a multi-point result.
Show all 8 picks
- Dallas Stars–Pittsburgh Penguins first-period total under 2.5+41%Won
Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model first-period mean is about 1.70 after nesting a 5.6 rate-based game mean against the 6.5 market total.
- Dallas averages 2.5 goals for and 1.5 against; Pittsburgh averages 4.0 for and 3.2 against through the current sample.
- Both sides of the 2.5 rung are quoted, with Over 0.30 / Under 0.71 and a tight spread.
- Pittsburgh’s 4.0 goals-per-game start and Silovs’ .859 save percentage can create early scoring volatility.
- Bryan Rust over 0.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10-game recent sample: 10 points, including a point in 8 of 10 games.
- Current season: Rust has scored in both games, averaging 1.0 point against a 0.5 line.
- Projected on Pittsburgh's top line with Sidney Crosby and Rickard Rakell.
- Only two current-season games; the longer sample spans the offseason and roster context changed.
Questions
Who won Stars vs. Penguins?
The Penguins won 2–1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.