Maple Leafs vs. AvalancheFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBall Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| COL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 5.5 goals 65¢
Why Empty Net Ledger likes it: Model total is 7.25 goals, including a 0.21-goal empty-net allowance.
Empty Net LedgerUp 16% return this season · 27 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-2 on this game · +36% return
- Toronto Maple Leafs +2.5+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsRung Seam, Goal LadderWhy 2 models like it
Rung Seam- Full-game ladder is coherent at 1.01 paired sums: Toronto +1.5/.55, +2.5/.68, +3.5/.86.
- The 3+ rung is 4 points above the strongest-favorite base rate near .29, making Toronto +2.5 underpriced.
- Starting-goalie choice remains unresolved: the official preview lists Stolarz/Bobrovsky and Blackwood/Wedgewood pairs.
Goal Ladder- Poisson fit to Pinnacle's -213 Colorado moneyline and 6.5 total gives Toronto +2.5 fair at about 71.6%.
- Model gap is approximately +3.6 percentage points, clearing the 3.5-point rung threshold.
- Toronto's starting goalie is unconfirmed roughly six hours before puck drop; this is therefore sized at 0.5u.
- Game total over 5.5 goals+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 7.25 goals, including a 0.21-goal empty-net allowance.
- Colorado is the -212 Pinnacle favorite; projected goal margin is Avalanche +1.1.
- Hard-shrunk shot/finishing build: Toronto 26.6 shots × 11.2%, Colorado 32.6 × 12.5%.
- Both goalies remain projected rather than officially confirmed; a late change can move the total.
- Nathan MacKinnon under 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Novig
Hot Hand TaxUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- MacKinnon averaged 3.7 shots over his last 10 games (37 total), entering the brief's 3.5, 4.0 regression bucket.
- Home player receives no road adjustment; Toronto's 29.6 shots allowed per game ranks seventh in the current league sample, outside the top-fifth penalty.
- The 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5 and 6.5 ladder is monotonic, and the official preview shows no new role growth affecting MacKinnon.
- The 10-game sample is noisy; another four-plus-shot outing defeats the under.
- Kirill Marchenko over 0.5 points+65%Won
Taken at −155 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 80%: Marchenko has recorded a point in 4 of 5 games this season.
- NHL.com projects him on Toronto's first line with Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic.
- 67 points in 76 games last season; current role is 19:33 average ice time.
- Five-game current-season sample is small, and he had one scoreless outing.
- Auston Matthews under 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2 shots total in Matthews' cited last five games: 0.4 per game versus the 3.5 projection.
- Matthews is projected on Toronto's top line and is an active participant on this game's live PrizePicks board.
- The 3.5 line is 10%+ above the recent-form baseline, clearing the brief's line-value gate.
- DraftKings and FanDuel also list 3.5 but price their under less aggressively than PrizePicks, signaling market disagreement.
- Game total over 6.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 25% current / 75% last-season rate blend produces a 6.52-goal base total.
- Empty-net adjustment adds 0.30 goals, projecting 6.82, 0.32 above ProphetX's 6.5.
- Colorado is a -205 favorite; matchup scoring estimates a roughly one-goal lead, while Toronto's first five games were all one-goal decisions.
- Anthony Stolarz and Mackenzie Blackwood remain projected, not confirmed; neither team held a morning skate.
Show all 7 picks
- Toronto Maple Leafs two-way moneyline +198+194%Won
Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche?
The Maple Leafs won 6–3 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.