Blues vs. BlackhawksFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalUnited Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CHI | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSpencer Knight over 23.5 total saves −105
Crease WorkloadUp 16% return this season · 87 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −46% return
- St. Louis Blues to win−100%Lost
Taken at −144 on FanDuel
NHL Ice EdgeUp 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 5v5 Corsi share: St. Louis 48.5% versus Chicago 39.6%, an 8.9-point differential.
- Special-teams index favors St. Louis by 33.3 points: 100% PK versus Chicago's 66.7%, with both PP rates at 0%.
- Joel Hofer is confirmed, but Spencer Knight is only likely; goalie status remains a late-scratch risk.
- St. Louis Blues puck line −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US
Form GapDown 32% profit over 11 picksWhy it likes it
- Raw trailing-25 goal-difference gap is 2.68 goals: STL +1.04 per game versus CHI -1.64.
- Conservative halfway shrink toward last-season gap of 0.50 still leaves a 1.59-goal form gap, above the 1.2 gate.
- Joel Hofer is confirmed for St. Louis; Chicago's Spencer Knight is listed likely, not a confirmed favorite-side backup.
- The shrink calculation is sensitive to the tiny opening-week sample and may overstate current team strength.
- St. Louis Blues −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US
Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Moneyline is Blues 58¢ / Blackhawks 43¢; normalized Blues win probability is 57.4%.
- Full-game Blues -1.5 is quoted at 35¢ with both sides live and a one-cent displayed spread.
- The form gap is 2.8 goals per game (STL -0.5 vs CHI -3.3), clearing the strongest-side 1.2-goal screen.
- Only two Blues and three Blackhawks games are in the current-season sample; the form gap is noisy.
- Game under 5.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Connor Bedard is listed out with a shoulder injury in NHL.com’s Oct. 6 team-news lineup; the live injury feed lists a Nov. 7 return.
- Bedard’s latest 69-game row shows 20:52 per game, 3:29 on the power play, and 30 goals; I estimate roughly 0.25 goals of Chicago scoring loss after replacement.
- Polymarket US Under 5.5 costs 47¢ versus 52¢ at the opening capture; the five-cent move toward Over has not absorbed the subtraction.
- The NHL.com page is in projected-lineup format; final warmup confirmation and starting goalies are not independently posted.
- Spencer Knight over 23.5 total saves+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days - Chicago Blackhawks +2.5+27%Won
Taken at 79¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model anchored to the sharp line and 5.5 total: St. Louis win by 3+ projects near 17%, making Chicago +2.5 about 83% fair.
- 79¢ is about 4.6% below the projected fair cover price.
- The full-game dog ladder is monotone: Chicago +1.5 at 66¢, +2.5 at 79¢, +3.5 at 90¢; +2.5 offers the best qualifying rung.
- Joel Hofer is projected for St. Louis, but the official starter, and Chicago's goalie, remain unconfirmed.
Questions
Who won Blues vs. Blackhawks?
The Blackhawks won 4–2 on Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026.