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Lightning vs. IslandersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalUBS Arena
Lightning
5–3Final
Islanders
Score by period
Team123T
TB2125
NYI0303

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 5.5 goals 51¢

Why Empty Net Ledger likes it: Tampa Bay is the -180 favorite; the projected 0.6-goal margin supplies the late one-goal empty-net setup.

Empty Net LedgerUp 16% return this season · 27 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-3 on this game · +35% return

  1. Under 4.5 total goalsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's 5.5 total (-110 over / -102 under) de-vigs to 50.9% over, anchoring the model.
    • Novig's full total ladder is monotonic, but its 4.5 under is materially cheaper than the fitted distribution implies.
    • Neither starting goalie is confirmed roughly six hours before puck drop; starter uncertainty forces a half-unit stake.
  2. Game total over 5.5 goals
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tampa Bay is the -180 favorite; the projected 0.6-goal margin supplies the late one-goal empty-net setup.
    • Projected Vasilevskiy/Sorokin are incorporated; the sharp total is 6.0, meeting the desk gate.
    • The 6.0 sharp total is only modestly above the 5.5 rung; one-goal variance dominates around the threshold.
  3. Tampa Bay Lightning to win
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    Scratch ShiftDown 56% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Timing: Mathew Barzal is listed Out in the game-day injury report; Alexander Romanov is also Out.
    • Barzal supplied 19 goals, 184 shots and 100,363 seconds for the Islanders last season, 8.3% of team goals and about 8.1% of team shots.
    • Barzal averaged 20:38 per game in a top-line role; Romanov averaged 19:27 in 15 games, adding a top-four defensive absence.
    • The NHL game page still labels line combinations projected; the Out designations come from a game-day injury report rather than a final official scratch announcement.
  4. New York Islanders over 2.5 team goals
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Whistle CrewDown 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Crew averages 6.09 power-play chances per game over the referees' last 40-game samples; top-quartile profile.
    • Eric Furlatt: 6.225; Chris Schlenker: 5.95 power-play chances per game.
    • Islanders average 13.5 penalty minutes per game versus 10.54 league-wide this season.
    • The penalty and team samples are only four games into the season; the elevated 10.54 league rate may already be priced.
  5. New York Islanders two-way moneyline +160
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Venue self-reference only: the current board supplies both related markets; no sharp reference is used.
    • Recent form is mixed enough to avoid a contradictory team-side projection: Islanders +1.2 margin over the recent sample versus Tampa Bay +0.5.
    • The raw exchange probabilities include margin; this reconciliation is not a devigged estimate.
  6. Nikita Kucherov over 1.5 points
    +140%Won

    Taken at +140 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DraftKings +140 implies 41.7%; Kucherov cleared 1.5 points in 40 of 77 2025 regular-season games and 2 of 4 this season.
    • Kucherov has points in all four 2026 games, averaging 1.50 points and 22.45 minutes.
    • NHL.com projects Kucherov on Tampa Bay's top line with Brayden Point; the active DraftKings board lists him for this game.
    • Kucherov is only 3-for-10 on the multi-point threshold across the latest ten completed games.
Show all 9 picks
  1. New York Islanders spread −1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's same rung is Islanders -1.5 +358 versus Lightning +1.5 -478; devigged Islanders probability is 20.9%.
    • The 20¢ contract is about a 4.4% same-rung edge to the sharp reference, clearing the 3% bar.
    • Shrunk four-game Poisson rates (TBL 2.75 GF/2.25 GA; NYI 3.25 GF/2.00 GA) support a modestly higher Islanders multi-goal-tail estimate.
    • A one-goal Islanders win, overtime result, or Lightning win loses this puck-line contract.
  2. Jake Guentzel over 2.5 shots on goal
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17 shots over his last 5 games: 3.4 per game, 36% above the 2.5 line.
    • Projected on Tampa Bay's second line; PrizePicks' current board lists him as a participant for this game.
    • Active-player identity is supported by the live PrizePicks participant feed and current projected lineup.
    • Five-game form is a small sample, and shot totals are highly game-script dependent.
  3. Game total over 6.5 goals
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tampa Bay is the -180 favorite, with a projected 0.6-goal margin creating the required one-goal late-game setup.
    • The sharp book posts a 6.0 total, satisfying the desk's minimum reference-total gate.
    • The modeled edge is only about six percentage points, so ordinary NHL scoring variance can erase it.

Questions

Who won Lightning vs. Islanders?

The Lightning won 5–3 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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