Golden Knights vs. KrakenFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalClimate Pledge Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonVegas Golden Knights puck line −1.5 39¢
Why Form Gap likes it: 25-game goal-difference average: Vegas +0.68 versus Seattle -0.96, a 1.64-goal gap clearing the 1.2 threshold.
Form GapDown 32% this season · 11 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-4 on this game · +25% return
- Vegas Golden Knights −1.5+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsGap Favorite, Overtime TaxWhy 2 models like it
Gap Favorite- Vegas owns a +0.40 goal differential per game over its last 25 regular-season games versus Seattle's -0.96, a 1.36 gap clearing the 1.2 gate.
- Both sides are quoted, and the favorite ladder is monotone from Vegas -1.5 +160 through -5.5 +2600.
- The 25-game window contains only three 2026-27 games per team; the rate is mostly last season and remains sample-sensitive.
Overtime Tax- The NHL one-goal baseline is 38, 43%; assigning roughly half to each side makes VGK -1.5 about 41.5, 44c fair.
- The full-game ladder is monotone and live: VGK -2.5 is 26c, -1.5 is 39c, and VGK +1.5 is 80c.
- The 41.5, 44c derived range makes the edge borderline if one-goal games split toward the low end.
- Vegas Golden Knights puck line −1.5+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US
Form GapDown 32% profit over 11 picksWhy it likes it
- 25-game goal-difference average: Vegas +0.68 versus Seattle -0.96, a 1.64-goal gap clearing the 1.2 threshold.
- The 1.2+ form-gap bucket is historically 42.7% to win by 2+, roughly 0.43 fair versus a 0.39 contract price.
- Vegas projected starter Carter Hart is the established starter, not the backup; Seattle's projected goalie situation does not create a favorite-side backup warning.
- Vegas has only a +1.00 goal margin across its first three games versus Seattle's +2.67, so the recent short sample points the other way.
- Vegas Golden Knights–Seattle Kraken game total over 5.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 43% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model mean 6.37 goals: 3.67 VGK GF/G plus 4.33 SEA GF/G, matchup-adjusted and +0.20 empty-net correction.
- Vegas is a -164 to -175 favorite, while Pinnacle's sharp total is 6.0; this fits the close-game pull-goalie profile.
- No US sportsbook beats the exchange price: alternate over 5.5 is -152 at FanDuel and -155 at DraftKings.
- Both teams have only three current-season games, so the goal-rate estimate is noisy.
- Seattle Kraken to win−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: a league-shrunk Poisson estimate makes Seattle the stronger side, around 55% to win.
- Vegas and Seattle are both on two days' rest rather than a back-to-back; Hart and Daccord are the live projected starters.
- Starting goalies remain unconfirmed six hours before puck drop; a change materially alters the estimate.
- Game total over 5.5 goals+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: approximately 6.4 goals after hard-shrinking shot and finishing rates toward 2025-26 and adding 0.21 empty-net goals.
- Vegas is the favorite at approximately -165 to -175; that one-goal-game setup supports the empty-net addition.
- Six goals are required; the estimated edge is only slightly above the 5-point publication threshold.
- Seattle Kraken two-way to win−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 3.1-point disagreement clears the 3-point gate, making Seattle's two-way contract the cheap side.
- Seattle's early form is 2-1 with +2.7 goal margin, versus Vegas 2-1 and +1.0; this does not oppose the position.
- The edge barely clears threshold; small rounding or quote movement can erase it.
Show all 8 picks
- Vegas Golden Knights–Seattle Kraken first-period total under 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team-rate nest produces 6.17 expected game goals: VGK 2.67, Seattle 3.50.
- Scaling the 1.76 league first-period mean gives a 1.76-goal first-period model.
- Only three current-season games per team; early-season rates are a thin sample.
- Game total under 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Poisson model total is approximately 5.85 goals after early-season league shrinkage and projected-goalie adjustment.
- The model is 0.15 goals below Pinnacle's six-goal reference, satisfying the morning goalie/line agreement gate.
- Both 6.5 sides are quoted; the ladder is monotone, sums to about 1.01, and the under costs 0.56.
- The 6.5 rung is derived from the sharp six-goal line, so model error around the key six is important.
Questions
Who won Golden Knights vs. Kraken?
The Golden Knights won 6-2 on Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026.