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FinalU-Power Stadium · Monza
Cagliari
0–4Final
Monza
Score by period
Team12T
CAGL000
MONZ134

Top model pick, graded

Won

Monza spread −0.5 41¢

Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-3 on this game · +197% return

  1. Monza spread −0.53 models agree
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, Half Goal Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Two Goal Cushion
      • Monza's recent Serie A results include a 1-3 loss at Lazio; Cagliari are 3-1-1 across their recent five.
      Half Goal Pairs
      • Both starting XIs are posted: 22 starters returned by the lineup feed; xG coverage is true with 9 matches on the thinner side and clean null coverage_reason.
      • Cagliari's venue-specific form is stronger (7-1-2 away) than Monza's home record (3-1-6), opposing the margin read.
      Fair Price Pairs
        • The +7.16-point gap is LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED; one-match soccer variance and model error remain material.
      • Total goals over 2.52 models agree
        +117%Won

        Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

        2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Two Nil
        Why 2 models like it
        Team Sheet Pairs
        • ProphetX over 2.5 was +114 at the 12:35 AM PDT pre-lineup opening; it is +119 now, a move away from, not toward, the over thesis.
        • Most likely loss: the match finishes with 0-2 total goals despite the attacking-XI indicators.
        Two Nil
          • Pinnacle is posted at 2.2, not 2.5; the rung rule forbids treating that off-line price as a direct 2.5 comparison.
        • Over 2.5 total goals
          +117%Won

          Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

          Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
          Why it likes it
          • My opponent-adjusted blend gives Monza 1.53 and Cagliari 1.36 goals, 2.88 total.
          • The warehouse Dixon-Coles pair is higher at 1.72 and 1.33; its over-2.5 estimate is 58.9%.
          • Pinnacle anchors the total at 2.25, Over -117 / Under +104, supporting a higher-goal baseline than Kalshi's 2.5 price.
          • This is a 10-match point-in-time sample; one finishing or goalkeeper outlier can dominate a low-scoring sport.
        • Monza spread over 2.5Long shot
          +1567%Won

          Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi

          HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
          Why it likes it
          • Preferred oppadj inputs: Monza home xGF 1.42/Cagliari away xGA 1.65; Cagliari away xGF 1.16/Monza home xGA 1.54.
          • The 9-match xG samples are real but small; lambda and Dixon-Coles tail calibration may overstate three-goal wins.
        • Cagliari to score first
          −100%Lost

          Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket

          Matchday Minus OneDown 15% last 7 days
          Why it likes it
          • Cagliari score 1.2 goals/game; Monza concede 2.0, while xG matchup points to roughly 1.24 Cagliari goals.
          • Cagliari first-to-score costs 43¢ on Polymarket; my adjusted estimate is 45%.
          • Cross-check: no-goal is 7¢ and under 2.5 is 54¢; the implied no-goal/under relationship differs by about four points.
          • Expected lineups are not confirmed; a late Cagliari attacking change removes the small edge.
        • Both Teams To Score
          −100%Lost

          Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

          Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
          Why it likes it
          • Monza scoring read 78.5%: matchup lambda 1.54 from 1.42 attack xG and Cagliari 1.67 defensive xG-against; 9-match coverage.
          • Cagliari scoring read 71.6%: matchup lambda 1.26 from 1.16 attack xG and Monza 1.36 defensive xG-against; 9-match coverage.
          • Roughly symmetric BTTS setup: both sides clear 70% to score; no weak-attacker versus elite-defense asymmetry.
          • Pinnacle's devigged YES reference is roughly 53.3%, so the independent projection could simply be too optimistic.
        Show all 9 picks
        1. Monza −0.5
          +156%Won

          Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

          Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
          Why it likes it
          • Confirmed XI: the lineup feed lists 11 starters for both Monza and Cagliari at this wake.
          • Coverage is complete: form, xG, ratings and model probability flags are true; lambdas are 1.73 Monza and 1.32 Cagliari.
          • Features were computed through October 11, and the thinner xG side has only a 9-match minimum sample.
        2. Total goals under 2.5
          −100%Lost

          Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

          Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
          Why it likes it
          • Board pull: 2026-10-19 8:37:32 AM PDT. LEAN ticket; flow is the primary signal.
          • Most likely loss is three or more goals; an early goal can break the low-event script.
        3. Monza to win
          +140%Won

          Taken at +140 on DraftKings

          Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
          Why it likes it
          • 46.5% warehouse model win probability implies a +115 fair line; DraftKings +140 breaks even at 41.7%.
          • Model expected goals favor Monza 1.73, 1.32, with Monza's confirmed XI carrying 2.17 attacking xG versus Cagliari's 1.70.
          • The +140 price offers roughly a 4.9-point probability cushion versus the model's fair probability.
          • Cagliari's venue-specific form is materially stronger: 7-1-2 away versus Monza's 3-1-6 at home across 10 matches.

        Questions

        Who won Cagliari vs. Monza?

        Monza won 4-0 on Monday, Oct 19, 2026.

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