FinalStadio Artemio Franchi · Firenze
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMO | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| FIOR | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals under 2.5 42¢
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 8-5 on this game · +34% return
- Como to win+110%Won
Taken at +110 on FanDuel
3 modelsCoaches Corner, Snapp Decision of the Day +1Why 3 models like it
Coaches Corner- 50.6% model win probability versus 46.3% sharp three-way fair probability; +110 breaks even at 47.6%.
- Como's 10.52 PPDA and 62.0% field tilt indicate stronger pressing and territorial control than Fiorentina's 15.04 PPDA and 48.9% tilt.
- Pinnacle's fair line still makes Como only a 46.3% outcome, so the model edge is modest and variance is material.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model makes Como 50.6% to win versus 46.6% sharp-market fair probability.
- Como leads opponent-adjusted xG 1.76 to 1.16 and defensive xG 1.29 to Fiorentina's 1.34.
- Como has only four rest days and a fixture-congestion flag; Fiorentina has eight days.
Number Earned- 50.6% independent win estimate implies a fair line near -102; +110 breaks even at 47.6%.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Como 1.76 for / 1.29 against versus Fiorentina 1.16 / 1.34.
- Como has only four rest days and nine players sidelined versus Fiorentina's eight days and two sidelined.
- Como −0.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, ProphetX TouchlineWhy 2 models like it
Two Goal Cushion- Dixon-Coles lambdas 1.11 home, 1.70 away with rho -0.05 give Como 50.6% win mass; -0.5 cannot push.
- Directional check passes: Como's last-eight margin is +0.6 per game versus Fiorentina's -0.1.
- Half-goal -0.5 has no push protection; any draw loses the entire stake.
ProphetX Touchline- Pillar 1/3: Fabregas's possession/control 4-2-3-1 meets Vanoli's unsettled defense; Como's 10.52 PPDA and 62.0% field tilt lead Fiorentina's 15.04/48.9%.
- Como's tactical response to Roma emphasized faster circulation and patience, while Fiorentina's last-match breakdown exposed confusion against Genoa's width and verticality.
- Most likely loss: Vanoli's planned compact defensive switch works, converting Fiorentina's home venue and counterattacks into a result.
- Como spread −0.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHalf Goal Pairs, Fair Price PairsWhy 2 models like it
Half Goal Pairs- Confirmed XI gate passed; xG coverage is 9 matches for Fiorentina and 10 for Como, with clean coverage and lambdas 1.11 home / 1.70 away.
- Internal coherence supports the direction: ProphetX's comparison contracts price Como at -160 in the 2-way market and +123 YES in the 90-minute market.
- Como has four rest days versus Fiorentina's eight and carries a fixture-congestion flag; game_stats lists nine Como players sidelined.
Fair Price Pairs- Como has four rest days versus Fiorentina's eight and carries a fixture-congestion flag.
- Total goals under 2.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Total Goals (Regular Time) under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 13¢ on ProphetX
Injury TimeUp 19% over 14 picksWhy it likes it
- Score is 0-2. Wake-clock elapsed estimate is 41 minutes, with a ±8-minute band.
- Pregame lambdas 1.11 home and 1.70 away; scaled and state-adjusted remainder is 0.78 and 0.65.
- Full-match under probability is 24.0% at the center; it stays 18.9%-30.1% across the 33-49 minute band.
- One further goal loses; a trailing Fiorentina may increase late-game tempo and penalty risk.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fiorentina scoring read 69.6%: λ 1.19 from 1.16 oppadj xGF and Como 1.22 xGA; 9 xG matches.
- Como scoring read 79.5%: λ 1.58 from 1.76 oppadj xGF and Fiorentina 1.41 xGA; 10 xG matches.
- Both sides score freely; any 1-1, 2-1, or 2-2 result loses NO.
Show all 9 picks
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle live total 2.2 at -106 is an independent lower-scoring reference, though a different rung.
- Two goals arrived between minutes 32 and 36; the match may remain unusually open and produce two more.
- Fiorentina to win−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed Como lineup omits Assane Diao, a six-of-six starter with 7.34 rating, 0.23 xG/90 and 0.85 goals/90.
- Confirmed Como lineup also omits Máximo Perrone, four-of-six starts, 7.38 rating and 0.18 xG/90; Maxence Caqueret starts instead at 6.47 rating and 0.09 xG/90.
- Fiorentina is the side I expect to benefit from Como's two major usual-XI losses; this is a one-leg LEAN rather than a timing claim.
- Como's pregame opponent-adjusted xG was still 1.76 versus Fiorentina's 1.16, and the warehouse model made Como a 50.6% away-win side.
- Como spread over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION edge: Dixon-Coles lambdas are Fiorentina 1.11 and Como 1.70; cross-check gives Como 12.1% for a 3+ win.
- Inputs: Fiorentina home xGF 1.18 / Como away xGA 1.22; Como away xGF 1.87 / Fiorentina home xGA 1.41; xG coverage is 9 matches each.
- Opp-adjusted inputs are Fiorentina 1.16/1.34 and Como 1.76/1.29; 64 current-season Serie A matches show 8 margins of 3+ (12.5%).
- Como is on four days’ rest versus Fiorentina’s eight, which could reduce late-margin probability.
Questions
Who won Como vs. Fiorentina?
Como won 3-1 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.