FinalStadio Benito Stirpe · Frosinone
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SASS | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| FROS | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 3.5 total goals 46¢
Why Bench Boss likes it: Frosinone’s 9.10 PPDA press meets Sassuolo’s direct 0.64 style, creating a transition-heavy pace matchup.
Bench BossUp 2% return this season · 234 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-6 on this game · −37% return
- Sassuolo to win−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
4 modelsFair Price Pairs, Low Tide Line +2Why 4 models like it
Fair Price Pairs- Model features were computed through 2026-10-11; confirmed starting XIs were not posted at the 9:09 AM PT check.
Low Tide Line- Pinnacle’s Frosinone price drifted from +138 to +146, directionally favoring Sassuolo; Kalshi is stable at 34, 35¢.
- Global cohort flow is confirmation only, not a placement price, and this is a single-match projection with meaningful model risk.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Dixon-Coles expected goals favor Sassuolo 2.40 to 1.76, with both lineups confirmed.
- Sassuolo's opponent-adjusted attacking xG is 1.56 per match; Frosinone allows 2.07 opponent-adjusted xGA at home.
- Sassuolo enter 1-1-3 over their last five while Frosinone are 2-1-2 at home in the same window.
Number Earned- Away opponent-adjusted xG is 1.56 for Sassuolo versus Frosinone's 1.62, while defensive xG allowed favors Sassuolo 1.47 to 2.07.
- Confirmed lineup attacking-xG strength favors Sassuolo 2.25 to 1.84.
- The feature set rests on roughly seven to ten recent xG matches; early-season samples are thin.
- Over 3.5 total goals+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsBench Boss, Two Nil PairsWhy 2 models like it
Bench Boss- Frosinone’s 9.10 PPDA press meets Sassuolo’s direct 0.64 style, creating a transition-heavy pace matchup.
- Confirmed soccer_query XI data shows both teams in aggressive three-attacker shapes; Frosinone’s current lineup is a 4-3-3 under Massimiliano Alvini.
- Most likely loss: the press produces sterile possession and the match finishes with three or fewer goals.
Two Nil Pairs- λhome 1.76, λaway 2.40, dc_rho -0.05; combined λ 4.16 implies approximately 59.7% over 3.5 versus 47.85c.
- Oppadj xG: Frosinone 1.62 for / 2.07 against over 7 gp; Sassuolo 1.56 / 1.47 over 10 gp.
- The 59.7% estimate is model-derived, not a calibrated market consensus; goal variance remains wide.
- total goals over 2.5+45%Won
Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sassuolo's confirmed defense includes Cas Odenthal (1 prior start in six) and Duje Caleta-Car (2/6); Jay Idzes is sidelined with a 6.62 club rating.
- Frosinone also starts Ilario Monterisi (2/6) and Giorgio Cittadini (3/6), making a clean-sheet outcome less attractive.
- 0, 1-0, or 0-1 result loses; one early miss or conservative game plan can dominate the projection.
- Under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse xG: Frosinone 1.49 plus Sassuolo 1.55 equals 3.04 expected goals.
- Movement agrees: Kalshi and ProphetX over probability fell from 48.5%/49.0% to 46.5%/46.1%.
- Only 7, 10 xG games underpin the rates; the early-season sample is thin.
- Sassuolo wins by more than 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted inputs: Frosinone home xGF 1.62 / Sassuolo away xGA 1.47; Sassuolo away xGF 1.56 / Frosinone home xGA 2.07.
- Those rates imply λ≈1.54 home and 1.82 away; Dixon-Coles cross-check estimates Sassuolo by 2+ at 24.0%.
- Serie A 2026 sample shows away teams winning by 2+ in only 8 of 60 matches (13.3%), below the model estimate.
Questions
Who won Sassuolo vs. Frosinone?
Frosinone won 4-2 on Friday, Oct 16, 2026.