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FinalStadio Ennio Tardini · Parma
Torino
3–0Final
Parma
Score by period
Team12T
TORI213
PARM000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match total goals over 2.5 38¢

Why Bench Boss likes it: Confirmed formations are Parma 3-5-2 and Torino 4-4-2; both start two attackers, resisting a passive one-striker setup.

Bench BossUp 2% return this season · 234 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-1 on this game · +151% return

  1. Over 2.5 total goals2 models agree
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsEarly Whistle, Two Nil Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Early Whistle
    • Opponent-adjusted rates imply Parma 1.20 and Torino 1.42 goals; the conservative geometric blend totals 2.51.
    • The warehouse model's independent lambda pair is 0.91 / 1.44, checking the direction rather than contradicting it.
    • Using the warehouse lambda pair alone gives only about 41.7% for over 2.5; the edge depends on the opponent-adjusted adjustment.
    Two Nil Pairs
    • Model total expectation is 2.35 goals, roughly 0.10 above the ~2.25-goal Poisson mean implied by the board's over probability; estimated return is about +7.0%.
    • the complete ProphetX event board lists no BTTS-shaped market and no adjacent total rung; this is totals-only projection.
    • The model still assigns 58.2% to two or fewer goals; 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 are direct loss paths.
  2. Total goals over 2.52 models agree
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Two Nil
    Why 2 models like it
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • Confirmed XIs for both teams; starting-XI attacking xG is 1.32 for Parma plus 1.88 for Torino, versus 2.35 pre-lineup expected total.
    • Warehouse over-2.5 probability is 41.8% versus the 37.59¢ contract; reference context only, not a devig gate.
    • Most likely loss: 0-2 total goals; ProphetX under 2.5 is -174 / 63.5¢.
    Two Nil
    • Opp-adjusted xG read: Parma expected 1.20 (0.74 home xGF, 1.66 Torino xGA); Torino expected 1.42 (1.15 away xGF, 1.69 Parma xGA).
    • Computed expected total 2.62 versus approximately 2.22 goals implied by Kalshi's full over ladder; same-rung Over 2.5 is 39¢.
    • No independent sharp same-rung reference exists: Pinnacle is posted at the off-line 2.0, so this is venue self-reference rather than sharp-book validation.
  3. Torino to win2 models agree
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsLow Tide Line, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Low Tide Line
    • Full feature coverage: model, form, xG and ratings present; minimum xG history is nine matches.
    • Pinnacle's devigged Torino reference is approximately 39.3%; sharp direction agrees with the model's Torino preference.
    • The model edge is only modestly above the 8-point publication threshold and depends on Dixon-Coles calibration.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model gives Torino a 48.6% win probability versus FanDuel +135 break-even 42.6%, a 6.0-point gap.
    • Torino projects for 1.44 expected goals versus Parma's 0.92.
    • The model is based on a relatively small 10-match home/away sample for each side.
  4. Match total goals over 2.5
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed formations are Parma 3-5-2 and Torino 4-4-2; both start two attackers, resisting a passive one-striker setup.
    • Torino averages 2.33 big chances and 3.00 shots on target across 10 matches; Parma adds 1.33 and 2.56.
    • Most likely loss: Parma's 0.71 home xG and Torino's 1.09 away xG produce a 1-0 or 1-1 match.
  5. Both Teams To Score NO
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Timing passed: Kalshi last contract change 2026-10-19T17:54:00Z; confirmed XI first observed 2026-10-19 10:54:22 PDT.
    • Parma absentee Pontus Almqvist is sidelined; xG/90 is 0.43 from 83 minutes. He is not in the confirmed XI.
    • Almqvist's 0.43 xG/90 is a thin 83-minute sample and may overstate his contribution.
  6. Both Teams To Score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended goal means are Parma 1.20 (0.74 oppadj xGF vs Torino 1.66 xGA) and Torino 1.42 (1.15 vs Parma 1.69).
    • This is a symmetric-enough scoring setup: both defenses allow about 1.6 xGA; Parma's modest 0.71 raw xGF is offset by Torino's leaky defensive read, not a true weak-attacker versus real-defense case.
    • Parma's low 0.71 raw xGF can still produce a clean sheet, which is the main YES failure path.
Show all 7 picks
  1. Torino spread over 1.5Long shot
    +456%Won

    Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles anchor gives Torino 48.6% to win by more than 0.5; lambda cross-check gives 24.4% for the traded ≥2-goal margin versus 18¢.
    • Same-season Serie A sample: 68 matches, with home goal difference +1 at 26.5%, +2 at 13.2%, and +3 or more at 7.4%, a lumpy ladder rather than smooth decay.
    • Torino must win by at least two goals; a draw, loss, or one-goal Torino win loses the contract.

Questions

Who won Torino vs. Parma?

Torino won 3-0 on Monday, Oct 19, 2026.

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