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FinalJuventus Stadium · Torino
Lazio
3–0Final
Juventus
Score by period
Team12T
LAZI123
JUV000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total Goals over 2.5 52¢

Why Team Sheet Pairs likes it: Confirmed XI for both teams; the quality macro returns 10 known players per side, with starter attacking-xG aggregates of Lazio 2.77 and Juventus 1.78.

Team Sheet PairsEven this season · 351 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-9 on this game · −54% return

  1. Juventus to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −160 on DraftKings

    3 modelsCoaches Corner, Snapp Decision of the Day +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Confirmed lineup surface shows Spalletti's 3-4-2-1: three center-backs, four midfielders and two attacking midfielders behind Kolo Muani.
    • Gattuso's Lazio is listed in a trusted 4-3-3; Juventus can create central and half-space overloads with the two advanced midfielders.
    • Lazio's 4-3-3 can attack the space outside Juventus's back three through Zaccagni and Isaksen.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Juventus 1.84 for / 0.69 against versus Lazio 1.28 / 1.50.
    • Juventus holds a 117.96-point Elo edge and produces 18.5 shots per recent match versus Lazio's 12.22.
    • Juventus has only 3 rest days versus Lazio's 7 and carries a fixture-congestion flag.
    Number Earned
    • Model expected goals: Juventus 1.99, Lazio 0.66; opponent-adjusted xG favors Juventus 1.84 to 1.28.
    • Elo difference is +117.96 for Juventus at home.
    • Juventus has three rest days versus Lazio's seven, with a congestion flag.
  2. Juventus
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 118-point Elo advantage supports the home projection; both teams are 5-1-1 across their last eight.
    • Kalshi moved from roughly 60.5, 61.0¢ to 59.5¢ recently; movement runs against the projection.
  3. Total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The same-rung ladder implies roughly 2.7 goals; Pinnacle is the sharp reference at 0.51 Over 2.5, leaving a small model lean under.
    • Secondary tempo context is not strongly over: PPDA is 12.02 for Juventus and 15.85 for Lazio; rest is 3 versus 7 days.
    • The estimated 50.7% under probability is only about 1.7 points above the 49¢ entry; variance dominates.
  4. Match total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Juventus has three rest days plus congestion; late-match tempo and pressing continuity are vulnerable.
    • Juventus home xGA is 0.67; Lazio's away xG is 1.29 across the 10-match sample.
    • Confirmed XIs show Juventus in a 4-3-3 and Lazio in a back-four shape, with no unresolved personnel gate.
    • Juventus averages 18.5 shots and 6.5 on target at this venue-side split; early pressure can break the total.
  5. Total Goals over 2.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed XI for both teams; the quality macro returns 10 known players per side, with starter attacking-xG aggregates of Lazio 2.77 and Juventus 1.78.
    • Lazio starts Mattia Zaccagni (0.38 xG/90), Tijjani Noslin (0.43) and Gustav Isaksen (0.37); Juventus starts Randal Kolo Muani (0.54).
    • The announced attacking personnel supports a three-goal game more than a low-event read, despite Juventus missing listed Kenan Yildiz, Manuel Locatelli, Khéphren Thuram and Jérémie Boga.
    • Most likely loss is two or fewer goals, especially 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1.
  6. Under 2.5 Total Goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • λ_home 1.99, λ_away 0.66, dc_rho -0.05; implied model mean is 2.65 goals.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG: Juventus 1.85 for / 0.69 against; Lazio 1.28 / 1.50, with gp_with_xg 10 / 9.
    • No BTTS-shaped market or adjacent total rung was listed; this is a direct projection edge, not ladder extrapolation.
    • Only a 1.65-point probability edge; one venue rung prevents estimating the market's implied goal mean.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Both Teams To Score NO
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Juventus remaining scoring read ~68%: 1.89 xGF/m over 10 xG matches versus Lazio's 1.41 xGA/m.
    • Lazio remaining scoring read ~42%: 1.29 xGF/m over 9 xG matches versus Juventus' 0.67 xGA/m.
    • Asymmetric case: Lazio is the weaker attacker against the real defense; independent remainder read puts BTTS YES near 29%.
    • A Lazio goal, or a fast Juventus goal followed by Lazio pressure, makes BTTS NO vulnerable.
  2. Juventus spread over 2.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
  3. Juventus spread over 1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lambdas: Juventus 1.99, Lazio 0.66; xG coverage 10 and 9 matches; lambda cross-check gives ≈43.1% for margin ≥2.
    • At -1.5, a draw, Lazio win, or Juventus win by exactly one loses; no whole-goal push protection applies.
  4. Lazio spread +1
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-18T09:04:39-07:00. LEAN ticket; the venue flow is stronger than the projection signal.
    • Most likely loss: Juventus wins by two or more goals; a one-goal Juventus win may push rather than win.

Questions

Who won Lazio vs. Juventus?

Lazio won 3-0 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

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