FinalStadio Renato Dall'Ara · Bologna
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| INT | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| BOLO | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 2.5 total goals 61¢
Why Coaches Corner likes it: 3.71 combined expected-goal intensity from the pregame feature lambdas (Bologna 1.53, Inter 2.19).
Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-5 on this game · −8% return
- Over 2.5 total goals+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Tailgate
2 modelsCoaches Corner, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Coaches Corner- 3.71 combined expected-goal intensity from the pregame feature lambdas (Bologna 1.53, Inter 2.19).
- Palladino’s attacking 3-4-2-1 and Chivu’s 3-5-2 both use aggressive wingback structures, creating transition space when possession turns over.
- Lautaro Martínez is ruled out, reducing Inter’s finishing quality and late attacking depth.
Deep Book- LEAN. The 6.18x total-flow ratio is below the 10x recommended band; no second goal-specific board confirms the total.
- Both Teams To Score+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsBoth Nets, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Both Nets- Symmetric BTTS case: both sides clear a strong scoring threshold; independent product is about 67%, not a total-goals shortcut.
- The 67% estimate is a simple Poisson-style combination of rolling xG inputs; scoring dependence and model calibration can be wrong.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Bologna’s home xG profile is 1.30 raw and 1.40 opponent-adjusted per match.
- Inter’s away attack averages 2.70 xG and 21.3 shots across the recent rolling sample.
- Inter’s personnel losses include Lautaro Martínez, while Bologna also have major defensive departures.
- Total goals over 2.5+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsTwo Nil, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil- opp-adjusted xG projects 3.40 total goals versus a Kalshi ladder-implied ~3.1.
- Bologna: 1.40 xG for and 1.06 against per match, each backed by 10 gp_with_xg.
- The 66% estimate is a model conversion, not an independent sharp-market probability; Pinnacle's 3.0 line cannot be treated as a 2.5-rung check.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model projects 71.7% over 2.5 versus the exchange price implying 59.7%.
- Opponent-adjusted attacking xG is 2.86 for Inter and 1.40 for Bologna.
- Inter are missing Lautaro Martínez and Nicolò Barella, reducing attacking continuity.
- Bologna to win−100%Lost
Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Global Bologna YES maps directly to Kalshi's Bologna moneyline YES contract.
- Market movement is broadly supportive: Kalshi home probability moved from roughly 14.5c to 15c, while sharp Pinnacle stayed near its current Bologna probability.
- Only one sized Bologna holder exposed a readable decay figure: 3.1%; other target positions were truncated, so their decay and full market-maker checks remain uncertain.
- Bologna wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 38 of 75 recent Serie A goals came by minute 45; measured first-half share 50.5%.
- Scaled Dixon-Coles rates: Bologna 0.77, Inter 1.11 expected first-half goals.
- Kalshi prices Bologna 1H at 16.5c versus 14.5c for Bologna full-time.
- Only 35 of 36 sampled fixtures had recorded goal events; one fixture is incomplete for the share estimate.
- Bologna FC wins 2-1−100%Lost
Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home is Bologna; model key 2-1 maps to the exact contract “Bologna FC wins 2-1.”
- Top-k rank 5 of 6; xG coverage is 10 matches for each side, with live-subset sum 80.5%.
- Correct-score distribution is truncated and exact-score variance is high.
Show all 8 picks
- Bologna +1−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- rest decay: Bologna has 6 rest days versus Inter's 4; Inter is flagged fixture-congested.
- Both current starting-lineup feeds are populated; the rest adjustment is not based on an assumed rotation.
- Pinnacle also shows Bologna +1 at -107; reference context only, not the thesis.
- The rest edge is only two days; no derived long-travel, artificial-surface, or aggregate-state pillar is confirmed.
- Bologna spread YES 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; λ Bologna 1.53 vs Inter 2.19, with opponent-adjusted inputs 1.40/1.06 and 2.86/1.48.
- Longshot variance is substantial: an Inter win, draw, or Bologna win by exactly one loses.
Questions
Who won Inter vs. Bologna?
Inter won 3-1 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.