FinalStadio Olimpico · Roma
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| GENO | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ROMA | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonRoma spread −1.5 34¢
Why Two Goal Cushion likes it: Roma won by 2+ in 5 of its last 10; Genoa did so in 2 of its last 10, a noisy reality check.
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-7 on this game · −24% return
- Roma spread −1.5+194%Won
Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Roma won by 2+ in 5 of its last 10; Genoa did so in 2 of its last 10, a noisy reality check.
- Directional check passes: current XI includes Roma's Soulé, Mora and Castro; absences reduce conviction but do not reverse the model.
- Only 9 xG matches support the thinner side; the margin distribution may be unstable.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent Serie A event sample: 19 of 30 goals in the first half (63.3%), implying a reconciled first-half mean of 1.68.
- Over 1.5 is the furthest 1H rung from the reconciled distribution: about 17.5 probability points.
- The split sample is only 9 fixtures and 30 goals; 63.3% is volatile.
- Roma wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION. Serie A sample: 24 of 36 goals before halftime across 11 recent fixtures, a 66.7% share.
- Scaled lambdas are 1.25 Roma and 0.51 Genoa using the measured share; Dixon-Coles P(Roma 1H) is 54.0%.
- Pinnacle's 45.7% reference is materially below the model; the model may be miscalibrated.
- Both Teams To Score−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Roma scoring read: blended λ≈1.67 from 2.13 opp-adjusted xG for and Genoa 1.21 xG against; P(Roma scores)≈81.2%, with 10 feature matches and 19 team-xG matches.
- Genoa scoring read: blended λ≈1.08 from 1.10 opp-adjusted xG for and Roma 1.06 xG against; P(Genoa scores)≈66.1%, with 9 feature matches and 19 team-xG matches.
- Moderately symmetric positive case, not the asymmetric BTTS-NO setup: both sides clear a useful scoring threshold; joint read≈53.7%.
- Genoa's 66.1% scoring probability is the weaker leg; one Roma clean sheet loses the ticket even if Roma scores multiple times.
- Total goals over 5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Genoa CFC to win−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US
Sharp Cohort SoccerUp 46% last 7 days
Show all 10 picks
- Total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both XIs are confirmed with 11 starters; the six-match XI-quality baseline exists, with 9 known Roma and 10 known Genoa XI entries and xG coverage for both.
- Roma's announced XI attack xG is 2.08 versus a 1.83 usual-XI baseline (+0.25); Genoa is 2.13 versus 2.04 (+0.08), a +0.33 combined uplift.
- Roma starts Rodrigo Mora (0.37 xG/90, 1.18 big chances/90) and Santiago Castro (0.66 xG/90); Genoa starts Junior Messias (0.43 xG/90).
- Most likely loss: a low-event 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 result stays under 2.5.
- Roma to win+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model projects 1.87 Roma expected goals versus 0.77 for Genoa.
- Roma are 6-3-1 at home with a +14 goal difference; Genoa are 3-1-6 away with a -4 difference.
- Roma lead the Elo rating by 268 points and average 2.08 attacking xG from starters.
- The model edge is only 2.87 percentage points at the 60¢ entry, so this is a modest-value position.
- Roma spread YES 1.5+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Roma lambda 1.87; Genoa lambda 0.77, using opp-adjusted xG inputs; 9 xG matches and 10 competitive matches each.
- Serie A sample: 0-margin 19.7%, ±1 45.9%, ±2 21.3%, |margin|≥3 13.1%; lumpy mass supports rung-specific pricing.
- Roma has only 3 rest days versus Genoa's 7, which could suppress late margin.
- Roma spread YES 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles lambdas are Roma 1.87 and Genoa 0.77; estimated Roma margin ≥3 probability is 18.2%.
- Serie A season sample: goal differences 0/1/2 occurred 12/16/8 times; only 5 of 68 were +3 or +4.
- The model edge is only about 1.2 percentage points; estimation error can erase it.
Questions
Who won Genoa vs. Roma?
Roma won 2-0 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.