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FinalDacia Arena · Udine
Lecce
3–0Final
Udinese
Score by period
Team12T
LECC213
UDIN000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Lecce to win 28¢

Why Team Sheet Pairs likes it: Confirmed XI attacking xG is Lecce 2.78 versus Udinese 1.32, a +1.46 Lecce gap.

Team Sheet PairsEven this season · 351 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-3 on this game · +136% return

  1. Lecce to winLong shot2 models agree
    +257%Won

    Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • Confirmed XI attacking xG is Lecce 2.78 versus Udinese 1.32, a +1.46 Lecce gap.
    • Both lineups are confirmed; XI-quality coverage has 10 known prior Lecce matches and 11 for Udinese.
    • Udinese winning outright is the direct loss; the existing Lecce +0.5 position does not protect this ticket.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Lecce's opponent-adjusted away xG for is 1.23, above Udinese's home 1.11.
    • Udinese's home opponent-adjusted xG allowed is 1.64; Lecce's attack has the better modeled matchup.
    • Lecce are 4-6 away with only 10 goals scored across those 10 matches.
  2. Lecce spread +0.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX held Udinese -0.5 at 53.7% from 12:55am through 2:44am; the current board remains -116/+110.
    • confirmed XI quality is Lecce 2.78 attacking xG versus Udinese 1.32, a +1.46 Lecce delta.
    • Both confirmed XIs are present; XI baselines have 10 known prior matches for Lecce and 11 for Udinese, clearing the coverage gate.
    • Udinese winning outright is the direct loss; the +0.5 spread provides no protection against that result.
  3. US Lecce to winLong shot
    +400%Won

    Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Feature coverage is complete: model, xG, ratings, and form flags are true; nine prior xG matches support the projection.
    • Pinnacle sharply disagrees: Lecce is +381, roughly a 20% raw-implied away price after accounting for the draw.
  4. Udinese does not win by more than 1.5 goalsFavorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • λ Udinese 1.62, λ Lecce 1.50; xG coverage true, 9/10 prior matches.
    • Dixon-Coles cross-check (ρ -0.05) gives Udinese margin ≥2 about 20.5%; NO win chance 79.5%.
    • Lineup/coach availability detail is incomplete; late absences could move the margin distribution.
  5. Total goals over 2.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted xG: Udinese xGF 1.11 plus Lecce xGA 1.97 implies 1.54 home goals; Lecce xGF 1.23 plus Udinese xGA 1.64 implies 1.44 away goals.
    • Pinnacle offers only 2.25, a different rung; therefore this is a self-reference rather than a sharp same-rung check, capping it at LEAN.
    • PPDA is moderate rather than an aggressive-press signal: Udinese 15.62 and Lecce 14.17; field tilt is only 0.53 and 0.44, both proxy-based.
  6. Match total over 4.5 goalsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 12¢ on Kalshi

    Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted scoring/conceding blend gives Udinese 1.53 and Lecce 1.43 expected goals.
    • That 2.97-goal rate implies roughly an 18.0% chance of five or more goals.
    • The warehouse model independently gives lambda 1.61 + 1.48 and 20.2% for over 4.5.
    • Five goals is a high-variance threshold; four or fewer loses despite a positive modeled gap.
Show all 12 picks
  1. Lecce @ Udinese both teams to score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The model's expected goals are balanced at 1.62 home and 1.50 away, supporting chances at both ends.
    • Udinese's home xG allowed is 1.56 raw; Lecce's away xG allowed is 1.85 raw.
    • Recent rolling data shows Lecce creating 2.6 big chances per away match.
    • Lecce scored only 10 goals in 10 away matches, so the away goal is the key failure point.
  2. Lecce @ Udinese over 2.5 goals
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on BetMGM

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Modeled expected goals total 3.12, with lambdas of 1.62 for Udinese and 1.50 for Lecce.
    • Lecce average 2.6 big chances created over the recent 10-game window.
    • Both defenses allow elevated opponent-adjusted xG: 1.64 for Udinese at home and 1.97 for Lecce away.
    • Head-to-head meetings average exactly 2.5 goals, offering no margin for a low-event result.
  3. Lecce moneyline +260Long shot
    +257%Won

    Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX

    Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle away +382 is context only, not the placement price.
    • Confirmed starting XIs are not posted yet; late lineup news could move the true away-win probability.
  4. Both Teams To Score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Udinese scoring read ~77%: 1.11 opp-adjusted xGF/m versus Lecce's 1.85 xGA/m; 9 xG matches.
    • Lecce scoring read ~75%: 1.23 opp-adjusted xGF/m versus Udinese's 1.56 xGA/m; 10 xG matches.
    • Symmetric BTTS case: neither side is the low-attacker versus real-defense asymmetry; both defenses allow over 1.5 xGA/m.
    • No independent sportsbook BTTS price is captured, so this is venue self-reference rather than a sharp-reference comparison; self-reference caps the claim at LEAN.
  5. Lecce +0.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION. The soccer model gives Lecce +0.5 a 59.9% chance: 35.1% away win plus 24.8% draw; minimum xG sample is 9 matches.
    • NO REFERENCE. ProphetX is the placement source. No sportsbook or prediction-market corroboration used.
    • Most likely loss: Udinese wins by one goal.
  6. Lecce moneyline +340Long shot
    +340%Won

    Taken at +340 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 31% own away-win estimate (~+223 fair) versus DraftKings +340 (22.7% break-even): +8.3 points.
    • Warehouse model makes Lecce's away win 35.1%, with expected goals Udinese 1.62 and Lecce 1.50.
    • Lecce's away opponent-adjusted xG for is 1.23, above Udinese's home 1.11.
    • Market strongly favors Udinese: DraftKings -125 and Pinnacle prices Lecce at +384.

Questions

Who won Lecce vs. Udinese?

Lecce won 3-0 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

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