Champions League after matchday 4: the table has Brugge too high and Slavia too low
Club Brugge are 9th on 9 points, but they've been outchanced in three of four games and lean on Yann Sommer's league-high 27 saves. Slavia Praha have had the better chances in all four and have 1 point. Matchday 4 widened both gaps.
Club Brugge have far more points than their chances earn. Slavia have far fewer.
I'm giving a shout out to Sabah, who won their first ever Champions League game, beating Slavia Prague 2-0.
ESPN's Mark Ogden wrote after matchday 3 that "PSG, Bayern and Barcelona are head and shoulders above the rest." Matchday 4 backed him: the three won by a combined 11-0, and all three rank in the top 6 on chances.
The two results that didn't fit came on Wednesday. Club Brugge won 2-1 at PSV while PSV created about three times the chances, and Slavia Praha lost 2-1 to Arsenal despite creating more.
Brugge are 9th because Yann Sommer keeps bailing them out
When Brugge won 4-3 at Inter in October, ESPN's Sam Marsden singled out striker Nicolò Tresoldi, who scored a hat-trick and "will probably move to a bigger club soon." The attack is real, too: Brugge rank 9th of 36 clubs in chances created, measured by expected goals.
The defense is the problem. Brugge have allowed chances worth about 11 goals, 3rd-most in the competition behind Sabah and Slovan Bratislava, and have conceded only 7.
That four-goal gap is the biggest of any club, and much of it is Yann Sommer. The former Inter keeper has made 27 saves, the most in the league phase, and on Wednesday he stopped Sergiño Dest twice and a late free kick.
Brugge were outchanced in three of their four games
PSV chased the game for most of the night, which pads their chances a bit. Dutch broadcaster NOS still called it an unlucky defeat. Of the 12 clubs on 9 points or more, Brugge are the only one that has been outchanced overall.
Slavia have outchanced every opponent and have one point
When Sabah beat Slavia 2-0 in October, Gab Marcotti gave the Azerbaijani club a shout-out for its first Champions League win. Slavia created nearly three times Sabah's chances that night.
That has been Slavia's whole campaign. They sit 34th in the table but 12th of 36 on chances made minus chances allowed, just behind Aston Villa.
Slavia had the better chances in all four games
Wednesday flatters them a little: Arsenal led 2-0 after 38 minutes, and teams that are chasing create more. The Lens loss had no such excuse: Slavia led for most of it and conceded twice in stoppage time. Slavia have scored 5 goals from chances worth about 8.
Our preview went three for five
Our matchday 4 preview made five calls on Monday. Three held up and two missed.
- Bayern better than their record: right. They won 2-0 at Atlético with four times the chances.
- Aston Villa unproven away, Barcelona real: right. Barcelona won 3-0 and outchanced Villa nearly three to one.
- Inter leaky in Europe: wrong this week. They won 3-0 at Feyenoord, but have allowed about 9 goals' worth of chances in four games.
- Como and PSG would cool off: wrong. Como scored 9 at Lens and PSG scored 6 at Villarreal.
Brugge are a play-off team and Slavia are nearly out
The top 8 go straight to the last 16, and 9th to 24th play a two-legged play-off. The 8th-place club finished on 16 points in 2025-26, and every top-8 club had at least 16 in 2024-25.
Brugge, 9th on the current table, need about 7 more points from Liverpool at home, Napoli and Stuttgart away and Bodø/Glimt at home. If they keep giving up chances at this rate, the play-off is the likelier landing spot.
The 24th and last play-off spot took 11 points in 2024-25 and 9 in 2025-26. Slavia need 8 to 10 more from Villarreal at home, Bayern and Porto away and Aston Villa at home. They have played well enough to get there and may still run out of games.
Four games is a small sample, so read both gaps as warning signs, not verdicts. Bayern are 13th on 8 points with the best numbers in the field, and their top-8 fate is in their own hands. See every remaining game on our Champions League predictions page, or the Brugge win at PSV and Slavia's loss to Arsenal.
Questions people ask
How many points do you need to make the Champions League top 8?
About 16. The 8th-placed club had 16 points in 2025-26, and every top-8 club had at least 16 in 2024-25. The 24th and last play-off spot took 11 points, then 9.
Who is in the Champions League top 8 after matchday 4?
PSG, Real Madrid, Arsenal, Como, Barcelona, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Liverpool. Club Brugge are 9th on 9 points, level with Liverpool on goal difference but behind on goals scored.
Are Club Brugge good enough to make the Champions League knockouts?
The play-off looks likelier than the top 8. Brugge are 9th on 9 points but 26th of 36 on chances made minus allowed, and Yann Sommer's 27 saves lead the competition.
Why do Slavia Prague have only one point in the Champions League?
Finishing at both ends. Slavia have had the better chances in all four games, but they scored 5 goals from chances worth about 8 and conceded 9 from chances worth about 5.5.
How we did this
Chances are expected goals from Sportmonks: each shot's chance of going in, added up. "Chances made minus allowed" is a club's chances minus its opponents' over four league-phase games, through Nov. 4. The dashed line is a straight-line fit of points on that number across all 36 clubs. Wednesday's numbers are same-day data and can be revised. Scores and the table were checked against ESPN. Saves are from the same feed.