Updated
FinalMichelob ULTRA Arena · Las Vegas
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 25 | 21 | 13 | 77 |
| LV | 29 | 23 | 24 | 22 | 98 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSeattle Storm under 176.5 total 49¢
Why Third Quarter Run likes it: Model projects 175.6 points from 93.33 expected pace and 102.0/86.1 matchup-adjusted offensive ratings.
Third Quarter RunUp 7% return this season · 23 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-1 on this game · +60% return
- Seattle Storm under 176.5 total+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Third Quarter RunUp 63% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 175.6 points from 93.33 expected pace and 102.0/86.1 matchup-adjusted offensive ratings.
- Seattle's 89.3 season offensive rating faces Las Vegas's 97.4 defensive rating; the Storm's weak offense is the key efficiency mismatch.
- Directional-coherence check passed: the efficiency/pace build supports the under after reviewing the current availability picture.
- The projection is only 0.9 points below the traded rung; total variance can overwhelm this small model gap.
- Seattle Storm +17.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on BetMGM
ReeveUp 45% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 55.7% fair cover probability from 14.8-point model margin and pooled 18.75-point recent margin volatility.
- Seattle is on a back-to-back with seven listed outs; the depleted rotation can produce a late blowout.
- Game total under 177.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 175.6 points, 1.9 below the live 177.5 number.
- Seattle's last five game totals average 162.4; four of five stayed under 177.5.
- Seattle is on a back-to-back after scoring only 57 points Saturday.
- Las Vegas has scored 179+ in three of its last five games.
- Las Vegas Aces over 86.5 points+15%Won
Taken at 87¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Path: A'ja Wilson in, Ezi Magbegor out → Seattle Tier 4 vs Las Vegas Tier 1 → Filter B/E.
- Seattle lists seven players out, including Magbegor; Las Vegas retains Wilson, Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter.
- Seattle played at Golden State on Sep. 19 and is on an away back-to-back; Las Vegas last played Sep. 17 with three rest days.
- 87¢ is a costly favorite price; late lineup information could erase the model cushion.
- Game total over 175.5 points+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Blended pace-efficiency projection is 172.2 points versus the exact 175.5-point Kalshi threshold.
- Seattle dictates the modest pace push: last-five pace 93.0 versus 92.6 season; Aces are 90.56 versus 90.4.
- Recent cross-efficiency read projects 168.0: Seattle offense 77.8 versus Aces defense 88.88, Aces offense 105.2 versus Seattle defense 94.14.
- The 3.3-point blended gap is modest; normal shooting variance can clear 176.
- WNBA total under 176.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Aces' last-10 pace is 89.8 versus Seattle's 94.5; Vegas has three rest days against Seattle's back-to-back.
- Seattle scored 57 points yesterday at 67.5 offensive rating, while seven Storm players are listed out.
- The WNBA model projects 175.6 points; the coach-driven read is Vegas controlling tempo against a depleted, tired rotation.
- Seattle's faster 94.5 last-10 pace can create transition possessions despite the rest disadvantage.
Show all 7 picks
- Game total over 176.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Cheryl SnipesUp 4% over 53 picksWhy it likes it
- Recent pace compressed: Seattle’s last two games averaged 88.4 pace; its latest game used 84.3 possessions.
- Current form projects roughly 173, 174 points from recent efficiency, below the 176.5 threshold.
- Seattle is on a back-to-back with 1 rest day; Las Vegas has 3 rest days, while Seattle’s latest clean team-minute check was 201.
- Aces, Storm recently produced 191 points; shooting variance or an early pace spike can break the under.
Questions
Who won Storm vs. Aces?
The Aces won 98-77 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.