Get app
FinalAllianz Arena · Munich
FC Union Berlin
0–7Final
FC Bayern München
Score by period
Team12T
UB000
BM347

How the picks did

Models went 0-8 on this game · −100% return

  1. DrawLong shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Global draw positioning maps directly to the Kalshi Tie YES contract; all three survivors show under-15% price decay.
    • Directional coherence: the model still makes Bayern the likeliest winner, but its draw probability is materially above the US quote; no sharp sportsbook reference is posted and recent Kalshi draw pricing is flat at 4.5, 5.0¢.
    • Late lineup or team-news changes are not incorporated; a strong Bayern XI or Union absence could erase the gap.
  2. FC Union Berlin @ FC Bayern München total under 3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

    Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bayern's 0.74 field tilt and 10.63 PPDA versus Union's 0.53 and 13.34 point to Kompany controlling territory and tempo.
    • Confirmed Bayern XI keeps Kane, Musiala, Olise and Díaz together; the preview says Kompany planned limited rotation.
    • Union coach Mauro Lustrinelli emphasizes resilience and executing a plan, a setup more compatible with a contained counter game than open trading.
    • Bayern's attacking quality can turn territorial control into a fourth goal, especially after an early opener.
  3. Union Berlin first team to scoreLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • lambda_home 2.39; lambda_away 0.93. The race share is 27.1%, below Bayern's 88c FTTS quote.
    • Pinnacle total 5.0: Over -119 and Under +104 provide an independent scoring reference.
    • Bayern remains the model first-scorer leader at 69.3%; the edge is model-market divergence.
  4. 1H total goals under 1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

    Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • That split reconciles to 1.73 first-half goals, versus 2.43 from the clean 1H ladder fit.
    • The 1H ladder is the smaller adjustment: its mean must fall 0.70 goals; the full ladder would need a 1.88-goal move.
    • Over 1.5 1H is 70, 71¢; the executable NO side is 30¢, implying under 1.5 at the venue's outlier rung.
    • The 2H ladder is not usable: all three rungs fail the spread/dead-quote screen, so the split is checked against history, not a clean live ladder.
  5. Both Teams To Score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection; Bayern scoring read ≈86.2% from λ≈1.98 (2.35 opp-adjusted xGF and Union 1.61 xGA), based on 10 matches.
    • Union scoring read ≈71.1% from λ≈1.24 (1.30 opp-adjusted xGF and Bayern 1.18 xGA), also based on 10 matches.
    • Symmetric BTTS-positive case: both sides project to score; this is not a combined-goals proxy. Independent product ≈61.3%.
    • Both-teams scoring requires both legs; Bayern could win 3-0, producing plenty of goals but a BTTS-NO result.
  6. Tie to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bayern’s home form is 6-3-1, while Union’s away form is 3-2-5: draw protection is underpriced.
    • Model expected goals are 2.39 Bayern and 0.94 Union, still leaving meaningful draw mass.
    • Kalshi’s three-way board prices Bayern at 95¢ and Union at 2¢, overconcentrating probability on Bayern.
    • The model is computed through September 13, not today’s confirmed lineups.
Show all 8 picks
  1. FC Union Berlin spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Warehouse lambdas are 2.39 home and 0.94 away, a 1.45 expected-goal gap against a +3.5 regular-time rung.
    • The pick is a spread position, not a Union moneyline fade; Bayern's 2-way ML is -6750 and outside the desk's price band.
    • Both XIs were still unposted at 10:55 AM PDT; a late rotation or scratch can invalidate even this weak model-based read.
  2. TieLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bayern’s 10-game home-side form is 6-3-1; Union’s 10-game away-side form is 3-2-5, supporting meaningful draw variance.
    • The live board also showed DraftKings +1300 on the draw and Pinnacle +1700; Kalshi’s 5¢ contract is the executable price used here.
    • Pinnacle’s sharp reference is much more Bayern-heavy; its +1700 draw price implies a materially lower fair probability than the model.

Questions

Who won FC Union Berlin vs. FC Bayern München?

FC Bayern München won 7-0 on Friday, Sep 18, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.