FinalWohninvest Weserstadion · Bremen
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| WERD | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFC Augsburg first team to score 47¢
Why First Strike likes it: Model lambdas are 1.27 for Bremen and 2.18 for Augsburg; constant-hazard Augsburg-first probability is 61.1%.
First StrikeUp 2% return this season · 212 picksLongshots
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-6 on this game · −42% return
- FC Augsburg to win−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDeep Book, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Deep Book- ProphetX board pulled 5:56 AM PT. +124 American is inside the -250 to +300 band. This is LEAN because the 3.11x ratio is below 10x.
- 3.11x is only modestly above the 3x lower flow threshold and below the 10x recommended threshold.
Number Earned- 57.6% independent win estimate; fair line approximately -136.
- Expected goals favor Augsburg 2.18, 1.27; opponent-adjusted xG is 1.71, 0.97.
- Starting XIs were not posted at the 6:03 AM pricing check; late lineup news could materially change the estimate.
- FC Augsburg moneyline 2-way−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle listed FC Augsburg at +200; reference only, not used as the fair price.
- The 12.93-point gap may be model error; Dixon-Coles calibration is not independently validated here.
- Match total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- opponent-adjusted xG projects 3.09 goals; Werder 1.37, Augsburg 1.72.
- PPDA is aggressive for Werder 12.45 and Augsburg 16.11, a secondary hotter-tempo nudge only.
- Only 10 xG matches per side; this is below the preferred 12-match tier.
- FC Augsburg first team to score+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Model lambdas are 1.27 for Bremen and 2.18 for Augsburg; constant-hazard Augsburg-first probability is 61.1%.
- Goal buckets were 18, 31, 31, 22, 21, 48; the 76-90 bucket was 1.7x the mean. Adjusted Augsburg-first probability: about 61.5%.
- Pinnacle total is 3.2 goals at -102/-108. The independent total anchor supports the high arrival-rate setup.
- The FTTS mids sum to 99.0c. No Goal at 2.5c and Over 0.5 at 96.5c imply only a roughly 1-point identity gap, so there is no coherence edge.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored NO+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1H YES ladder: 79.5%, 44.5%, 19.0%; Poisson fit mean 1.50.
- Full-match ladder sums to 3.31 expected goals; measured 35.4% first-half share implies 1.17 first-half goals.
- The 1H mean is 0.33 goals above that split-consistent target; Over 1.5 is the furthest rung from reconciliation.
- XI not posted at 5:55 AM; late lineup news can change the scoring split.
- FC Augsburg correct score 2-0−100%Lost
Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home is Werder Bremen; model key 0-2 maps to the contract “FC Augsburg wins 2-0”.
- Augsburg's away lambda is 2.18 versus Bremen's home lambda of 1.27; the score shape is a two-goal away win with a clean sheet.
- The scoreline is third in the model top-k; coverage is 10 matches, with min_gp_with_xg 10.
- The model feature snapshot was computed through 2026-09-12, not kickoff day.
Show all 8 picks
- FC Augsburg−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model expected goals favor Augsburg 2.18 to 1.27.
- Augsburg's 10-game form is 6-3-1 with a 22-13 goal difference; Bremen is 3-2-5 with a 14-17 goal difference.
- Starting XIs are not posted; the preview lists 12 Augsburg and 8 Bremen players sidelined.
- Werder Bremen spread over 1.5+27%Won
Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambda cross-check estimates Werder winning by 2+ near 9%; NO fair probability near 91% versus a 79¢ entry.
- Same-season Bundesliga results conflict: Werder won by 2+ in 12 of 28 matches, far above the model's roughly 9%.
Questions
Who won FC Augsburg vs. Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen won 3-2 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.