FinalBayArena · Leverkusen
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAYE | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 1.5 1H goals scored 48¢
Why Half Light likes it: Full-match ladder implies 3.75 goals; the clean 1H ladder fits to 1.75 goals with a Poisson fit.
Half LightDown 7% this season · 135 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −4% return
- RB Leipzig first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION. Lambda pair is 1.13 home and 1.59 away; constant-hazard RB Leipzig first-score probability is 54.5%.
- Opponent-adjusted rates favor Leipzig: away xGF 1.73 versus Leverkusen xGA 1.24; the mirror is 1.41 versus 1.09.
- Leverkusen FTTS is the venue favorite at 58¢; the board's race view strongly disagrees with the model.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full-match ladder implies 3.75 goals; the clean 1H ladder fits to 1.75 goals with a Poisson fit.
- Applying that split to 3.75 gives a reconciled 1H mean of 1.44 and P(over 1.5) of 0.42.
- Venue prices Over 1.5 1H at 0.53: the YES probability is 10.4 points above reconciliation, the largest rung gap.
- The split sample covers 19 Bundesliga fixtures with goal events; 81 goals is still a limited sample.
- RB Leipzig to win−100%Lost
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model coverage is complete; both teams have 10 xG matches and 10 competitive fixtures in the feature row.
- Directional coherence: model, Kalshi contract, and cohort point to Leipzig; Pinnacle's 2-way reference disagrees, while captured movement is quiet at 0.0 per minute.
- Pinnacle's 2-way away price is +279 and materially opposes the model; the gap may reflect hidden team news or model miscalibration.
- Both teams to score NO+270%Won
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle prices BTTS NO +257; the independently sourced sharp fair probability is 27.1%, while the desk's projection is materially higher.
- The λ estimates use a simple attack/defense blend, not a full correlation or lineup-adjusted model.
- Draw 1-1−100%Lost
Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days - RB Leipzig spread over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; venue self-reference: no independent sharp quote exists for this exact >2.5 rung; Pinnacle's -1.5 reference is not interchangeable.
- Self-reference only: the exact rung lacks an independent sharp benchmark, so this is capped at LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
Questions
Who won RB Leipzig vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 2-0 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.