FinalDeutsche Bank Park · Frankfurt am Main
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRE | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| EF | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonEintracht Frankfurt spread NO 1.5 83¢
Why Handicap likes it: 28-match 2026 Bundesliga sample is lumpy: goal difference 0 occurred 5 times, ±1 occurred 7 times, and ±2 occurred 4 times.
HandicapDown 7% this season · 642 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-7 on this game · −85% return
- SC Freiburg first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- λhome 0.87 and λaway 2.51 imply SC Freiburg first-score probability 71.9%; late-hazard correction adds 0.4 points.
- Pinnacle independently posts total 3.0 at Over -115 / Under +104, supporting the high arrival-rate environment.
- Model P(No Goal) is 3.4%; late-hazard correction is +0.1 point to 3.5%, matching 1 - Kalshi Over 0.5 midpoint 96.5%; identity gap is 0.1 point.
- The 0.4-point hazard-share correction is heuristic; no target-fixture goal events exist yet.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full-match ladder implies 3.20 goals: 0.96 + 0.84 + 0.65 + 0.41 + 0.23 + 0.10.
- Split-reconciled 1H mean is 1.13, giving P(1H over 1.5) about 31.3% versus venue 42.5%: 11.2 points high.
- 1H and full ladders passed the dead-quote screen; both sides were live and spreads were 2 cents or less.
- The 35.4% split uses 113 goals across 26 event-covered recent Bundesliga fixtures; missing event coverage may bias it.
- SC Freiburg win−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full feature coverage: 10 xG matches per side, ratings/form/model all present; Freiburg leads Elo 1766-1553.
- Freiburg's rolling xG attack is 2.01 per match versus Frankfurt's 1.75, while Frankfurt's xGA is 1.92 versus Freiburg's 0.95.
- The 34.85-point model gap is unusually large; the projection could be misspecified despite 10-match support.
- Both teams to score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: geometric-mean xG read gives Frankfurt 68.0% and Freiburg 85.4% to score; BTTS-YES 58.1%, NO 41.9%.
- Asymmetric case: Frankfurt's opp-adjusted attack is 1.36 xG, facing Freiburg's 0.95 xGA; Freiburg is the stronger scoring side.
- Frankfurt's raw xG-for is 1.75, materially above its 1.36 opp-adjusted attack read; regression could lift its scoring chance.
- Eintracht Frankfurt spread NO 1.5+20%Won
Taken at 83¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 28-match 2026 Bundesliga sample is lumpy: goal difference 0 occurred 5 times, ±1 occurred 7 times, and ±2 occurred 4 times.
- Frankfurt loses this claim only by winning by 2+, and model calibration could be wrong in this unusually high-scoring early-season sample.
- SC Freiburg wins 2-0−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home is Eintracht Frankfurt; model key 0-2 maps to the contract “SC Freiburg wins 2-0”.
- Correct score is one exact outcome; every other scoreline loses.
Show all 8 picks
- Match total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Frankfurt 1.36 for / 1.76 against; Freiburg 1.93 for / 0.86 against.
- Only 10 xG matches per side, below the desk's preferred 12-match tier.
- SC Freiburg to win−100%Lost
Taken at +150 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Freiburg 1.93 for / 0.86 against; Frankfurt 1.36 / 1.76.
- Freiburg away form is 8-0-2 with a 31-12 goal record; Frankfurt home is 3-3-4, 27-20.
- DraftKings +150 implies 40.0%; model edge is +32.85 percentage points, or approximately +82.1% expected return.
- Starting XIs remain unpublished; the warehouse lists seven Frankfurt and three Freiburg players sidelined, without impact detail.
Questions
Who won SC Freiburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt won 2-2 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.