FinalHome Deluxe Arena · Paderborn
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSG | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| PADE | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonPaderborn spread +1 59¢
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-8 on this game · +45% return
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Long HaulWhy 2 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs- Pre-lineup ProphetX reference was under 3.5 at -107 at 9:49 AM; current board is -108, effectively unchanged.
- Confirmed Hoffenheim XI benches Kramaric, Asllani and Wimmer: 0.52, 0.34 and 0.38 xG/90 respectively in the club sample.
- The total already moved from opening under -127 to -108, so some pre-lineup information may have been priced against this position.
Long Haul- model lambdas total 2.96 (1.22 home, 1.74 away); Poisson ≤3 goals is approximately 65.5%.
- Coverage is complete: xG, ratings and model flags are true; thinner-side xG sample is 10 matches.
- Both model lambdas are live enough to produce four or more goals; an early goal raises transition variance.
- Under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsStanding Order, Two Nil PairsWhy 2 models like it
Standing Order- Under depth was $1,352 across 2 levels; 97.6% was at the best price: concentrated.
- Model lambdas total 2.96 (1.22 home, 1.74 away), corroborating the under-3.5 direction.
- Live score is already Paderborn 2-0; one more goal loses the contract.
Two Nil Pairs- Dixon-Coles goal-count calculation puts Under 3.5 near 65.0% versus ProphetX's 51.22¢ claim price (-105 American; 1.95 decimal).
- Opponent-adjusted xG supports a sub-3.5 environment: Paderborn 1.39 xGF/1.38 xGA; Hoffenheim 1.76 xGF/1.18 xGA.
- No adjacent total-goal rungs were listed, so there is no internal ladder-coherence confirmation beyond the 3.5 price.
- Match total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG projects Paderborn 1.29 and Hoffenheim 1.57; combined expected total is 2.86.
- Poisson translation gives roughly 68% under 3.5, versus Kalshi NO price of 53¢.
- Both sides have only 10 xG matches, below the 12-match top tier; the projected 2.86 is about 0.8 goals below the sharp Poisson-equivalent market read.
- Paderborn spread +1+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days - TSG Hoffenheim first team to score NO+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted lambdas: Paderborn 1.29, Hoffenheim 1.57; Hoffenheim first-score probability is 51.8%.
- NO probability is 48.2% versus a 39c entry price; projection edge is +9.2 points.
- Warehouse lambda cross-check 1.22 / 1.74 gives Hoffenheim first-score probability 55.8%; NO still clears price by 5.2 points.
- Hoffenheim has the stronger territorial profile: field tilt 0.65 versus 0.49, PPDA 10.23 versus 11.63.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 6% last 7 days
Show all 10 picks
- Paderborn spread over 1.5+1011%Won
Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 days - Draw 1-1−100%Lost
Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- home is Paderborn, so model key 1-1 maps to contract “Draw 1-1”.
- Coverage is 10 matches for each side; min_gp_with_xg is 10.
- Exact score loses to every other final score; the model top-k is truncated.
- Total goals over 3.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI structure is four defenders, four midfielders, two attackers for Hoffenheim; Paderborn's XI has five midfielders and two attackers.
- Hoffenheim's recent style shows 10.23 passes allowed per defensive action, .645 field tilt, 17.8 shots and 6.1 shots on target across 10 matches.
- Hoffenheim has only three rest days and fixture congestion; fatigue could blunt its press rather than create chances.
- Game total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2.96 combined model xG implies approximately 65.6% for 0, 3 goals.
- Warehouse Dixon-Coles model projects 56.8% over 2.5, leaving the 3.5 threshold materially more favorable to the under.
- Hoffenheim's opponent-adjusted xG against is 1.18; Paderborn's is 1.38.
- The warehouse model is explicitly unvalidated; the 3.5 probability is derived from its goal intensities rather than directly calibrated.
Questions
Who won TSG Hoffenheim vs. Paderborn?
Paderborn won 3-1 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.