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FinalVeltins-Arena · Gelsenkirchen
Elversberg
0–0Final
Schalke 04
Score by period
Team12T
ELVE000
SCHA000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Elversberg spread +0.5 50¢

Why Half Goal Pairs likes it: Confirmed XIs: 11 starters each; xG coverage is clean with 10 prior xG matches per side and lambdas 1.60 home / 1.39 away.

Half Goal PairsEven this season · 60 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-1 on this game · +393% return

  1. Elversberg spread +0.54 models agreeHigh conviction
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsHalf Goal Pairs, Two Goal Cushion +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Half Goal Pairs
    • Confirmed XIs: 11 starters each; xG coverage is clean with 10 prior xG matches per side and lambdas 1.60 home / 1.39 away.
    • Schalke winning is the only losing result; the home side remains a two-way ProphetX favorite at -215.
    Two Goal Cushion
    • Projection: Dixon-Coles build gives Elversberg +0.5 a 56.3% cover probability; the -0.5 rung has no push.
    • The underlying distribution is lumpy: draw 28.8%, Schalke by exactly 1 about 23.0%, Elversberg by exactly 1 about 17.1%.
    • Schalke's 10-match form is stronger at 7-1-2 versus Elversberg's 5-3-2; a home breakthrough could turn the margin distribution against the dog.
    Fair Price Pairs
      • No confirmed starting XI was posted at the 6:04 AM PDT check, so late availability news could move the true cover probability.
      Deep Book
      • Elversberg +0.5 is supported by the 90-minute Elversberg YES board and the under-total board; the venue flow is directionally coherent.
      • The two-way moneyline contradicts the spread flow: Schalke is -215 while Elversberg is only +196.
    • Total goals under 3.53 models agree
      +69%Won

      Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

      3 modelsTwo Nil, Regression Pairs +1
      Why 3 models like it
      Two Nil
      • Opp-adjusted xG: Schalke 1.47 for / 0.87 against; Elversberg 1.56 for / 1.24 against.
      • Kalshi’s 3.5 ladder implies approximately 3.3 goals; no same-rung sharp quote exists.
      • Both xG samples are 10 matches, below the desk’s 12-match top-band comfort level.
      Regression Pairs
      • Opponent-adjusted Elversberg xGF is 1.58, leaving the actual-versus-process gap at +1.12 per match rather than a soft-schedule artifact.
      • Combined recent scoring was 4.60 goals/match versus 3.62 combined xG; results have outrun shot quality by 0.98.
      • Elversberg's 1.64 xGF plus Schalke's 1.99 xGF still produces a 3.62 raw process total, above the 3.5 line.
      Long Haul
      • no qualifying travel, short-rest, artificial-surface, or aggregate-state pillar was verified.
      • Confirmed XI check passed: 11 starters were listed for each side; the match is on grass with rest of 9 days vs 7.
      • The off-thesis total is capped at LEAN; no Long Haul decay mechanism supports it.
    • No Goal first team to scoreLong shot
      +2400%Won

      Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi

      First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
      Why it likes it
      • The measured goal hazard rises from 13.0% of goals in minutes 0-15 to 22.4% in 76-90; correction is noted, not simulated.
      • Pinnacle's 3.2-goal total is materially above the model's 2.35 combined lambda and challenges the projection.
    • Elversberg +0.5
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 days
    • Over 1.5 1H goals scored
      +72%Won

      Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

      Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 1H ladder fitted Poisson mean 1.46 goals; full ladder mean 3.19.
      • Recent Bundesliga sample: 47 of 131 goals before minute 46; first-half share 35.9%.
      • Split reconciliation gives 1H mean 1.15; market 1H mean exceeds it by 0.32 goals.
      • The 32-match sample is early-season and timing variance is high.
    • Under 2.5 Total Goals
      +186%Won

      Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

      Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • model total lambda is 2.99 (Schalke 1.60, Elversberg 1.39), with dc_rho -0.05.
      • Opp-adjusted xG is Schalke 1.65 for / 1.19 against and Elversberg 1.58 / 1.31; 10 xG games each.
      • Confirmed current lineups were checked; no BTTS-shaped ProphetX market was listed for this event.
      • Three or more goals loses; Schalke home xG 1.99 and Elversberg away xG 1.64 create a real scoring tail.
    Show all 10 picks
    1. Both Teams To Score NO
      +194%Won

      Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

      Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; full coverage: each team has 10 xG matches, with Schalke projected to score 79.8% and Elversberg 75.3%.
      • The per-side Poisson read gives BTTS YES 60.0%, hence BTTS NO 40.0%; this is a symmetric high-scoring profile, not an asymmetric low-attacker case.
      • Both scoring probabilities are high; an early goal, penalty, or defensive error can make YES win quickly.
    2. Draw 0-0Long shot
      +2400%Won

      Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi

      ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Home is Schalke 04; model key 0-0 maps to the Kalshi contract “Draw 0-0”.
      • Top-k: 1-1 .1354, 1-0 .1211, 0-0 .1014, 0-1 .0895, 2-1 .0866, 2-0 .0857.
      • No confirmed XI; starting lineups were unpublished at 5:55 AM PDT.
    3. Schalke 04 spread NO 1.5Favorite
      +37%Won

      Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi

      HandicapDown 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection: Dixon-Coles lambda inputs are Schalke 04 1.34 and Elversberg 1.01; 10 xG matches for each.
      • Current Bundesliga 2026-27 sample: 12 of 33 matches had home margins of 2+, showing concentrated 0/1/2-goal mass and a volatile ladder.
      • The same-season sample is unusually tail-heavy: 12/33 home margins were 2+, opposing the low-tail model read.
    4. Elversberg to winLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi

      Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The model's fair line is +206; 25¢ implies +300 before exchange spread.
      • Elversberg rates 11 Elo points higher despite Schalke's home venue.
      • DraftKings' live +255 is also below the model's fair price, corroborating the underdog value.
      • Both teams' underlying samples are only 10 matches; the model is materially uncertain.

    Questions

    Who won Elversberg vs. Schalke 04?

    Schalke 04 won 0-0 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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