FinalMHPArena · Stuttgart
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BD | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| VFB | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch total goals under 3.5 50¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Projected total is 3.21 goals versus a Kalshi ladder-implied total near 3.75 at the 3.5 rung.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-1 on this game · +120% return
- Borussia Dortmund to win+170%Won
Taken at +170 on FanDuel
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Warehouse model makes Dortmund's away-win probability 47.3% versus a 35.3% Shin-devigged Pinnacle reference.
- Dortmund's recent away form is 8-0-2 with a 26-9 goal difference; Stuttgart's home form is 4-3-3 at 24-20.
- The warehouse Dixon-Coles model is not independently calibrated, and the sharp market strongly disagrees.
Number Earned- 47.3% warehouse model win probability versus 38.5% DraftKings implied (+8.9 percentage points).
- Dortmund are 8-0-2 with a +17 goal difference in the form sample; Stuttgart are 4-3-3, +4.
- Pinnacle’s sharper reference prices Dortmund at +176, materially below the warehouse model’s estimate.
- Match total goals under 3.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total is 3.21 goals versus a Kalshi ladder-implied total near 3.75 at the 3.5 rung.
- Pinnacle-derived Over 3.5 probability is 0.50, implying 0.50 Under; Kalshi's 50¢ NO is slightly better than that sharp reference.
- Secondary tempo check: PPDA is 13.74 Stuttgart and 11.45 Dortmund, with field tilt 0.49 and 0.58; seven rest days each means no rest-driven hot/cold adjustment.
- Dixon-Coles model has Over 2.5 at 0.72 and Under 2.5 at 0.28, implying a roughly 3.7-goal profile, about 0.5 above the xG pairing, so this read is downgraded.
- Borussia Dortmund first team to score+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Model lambda pair: VfB Stuttgart 1.65, Borussia Dortmund 2.06; coverage 10 matches each.
- Dortmund has 0.58 field tilt and 11.45 PPDA versus Stuttgart 0.49 and 13.74.
- Pinnacle posts 3.5 goals at -107/-103, an independent high-scoring anchor; Dortmund team over 0.5 is 84.5c.
- Starting XIs are not posted; lineup news can change scoring rates before kickoff.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored NO+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 28-match Bundesliga sample: 40 of 113 goals came in the first half, a 35.4% share.
- Kalshi 1H ladder fits a Poisson mean near 1.65; the full ladder fits near 3.70.
- The measured split maps the full mean to roughly 1.31 first-half goals, 0.34 below the 1H quote.
- The sample is only 28 recent fixtures; 35.4% is unusually low and may be regime-specific.
- Borussia Dortmund win+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected scoring rates favor Dortmund: 2.06 away goals versus 1.64 for Stuttgart.
- Recent points rate is 2.4 for Dortmund versus 1.5 for Stuttgart across the covered 10-match windows.
- Both Teams To Score NO+257%Won
Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- VfB Stuttgart scoring probability 79.8%; Borussia Dortmund 84.9%, using 10 xG matches each.
- Independent per-side read implies BTTS YES 67.8%, hence BTTS NO 32.2%.
- REFERENCE; no independent sharp BTTS quote was captured for Bundesliga, so this is capped at LEAN.
- Both sides have high scoring probabilities, so one goal by each side loses the NO contract.
Show all 7 picks
- Borussia Dortmund spread YES over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Inputs: Stuttgart raw xG 1.90 for/2.03 against; Dortmund 2.06/1.27; oppadj pairs 1.93/1.59 and 1.75/1.15.
- The 28-match Bundesliga sample is unusually blowout-heavy, with 42.9% of results at a 3+ absolute margin; that rate may regress.
Questions
Who won Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Dortmund won 1-0 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.