FinalDelaware Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 7 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| DEL | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 22 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 56.5 total 50¢
Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Possession convergence: 68.5/68.0 current plays, roughly 11.5 drives each; 20-mph gusts favor fewer chances.
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-4 on this game · +9% return
- Delaware Blue Hens to win+49%Won
Taken at −205 on FanDuel
2 modelsD1 Winner, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
D1 Winner- Projected Delaware margin is +8.57 points; the market prices the home side only -4.5 to -5.5.
- Delaware's 2026 defense has allowed -0.23 EPA/play, better than Coastal's -0.14 through two games.
- Only two 2026 games create substantial early-season sample and opponent-adjustment uncertainty.
Long Way Home- Pinnacle's captured pregame price was Delaware +114, independently supporting the home-side direction.
- Most likely loss: Coastal Carolina's explosive passing continues before Delaware's offense stabilizes.
- Under 56.5 total+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Possession convergence: 68.5/68.0 current plays, roughly 11.5 drives each; 20-mph gusts favor fewer chances.
- Both teams have only two 2026 advanced rows; the prior-season blend and partial G5 coverage widen model error.
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Coastal averaged +0.14 offensive EPA/play and 45.3% success over two 2026 games, ahead of Delaware's +0.09 and 43.0%.
- EPA matchup favors Coastal's script: +0.37 offense-versus-opponent-defense differential versus Delaware's +0.23.
- Both starters are confirmed: Coastal's Deuce Bailey and Delaware's Nick Minicucci; no unresolved QB gate.
- Only two 2026 games per team make the coverage tier thin; the 42% estimate is materially model-sensitive.
- 1H total under 27.5−100%Lost
Taken at 78¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season-to-date pace is 25.55 seconds/play for Coastal Carolina and 24.06 for Delaware; baseline points/drive are 2.53 and 2.52.
- DK/FD live full-game total 48.5 scaled through the live drive projection; model is 3.4 points below the 27.5 threshold, while market history moved over probability down from roughly 52% pregame to 23%.
- The warehouse live state is load-bearing; a contemporaneous article read disagreed on quarter/clock, so timing data is not perfectly clean.
- Total Points under 57+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 regular-season EPA: Coastal offense +0.14/play and defense -0.14; Delaware offense +0.09 and defense -0.23.
- The 10,560-game CFB histogram shows exact totals of 55, 56 and 57 in 399, 175 and 197 games; the current rung sits in a dense scoring neighborhood.
- QB gate cleared: official/box-data leader Deuce Bailey and current preview's Nick Minicucci are the expected starters.
- Most likely loss: an explosive first half or short-field sequence pushes the game above 57.
- Delaware Blue Hens 1H win by over 2.5+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's full-game Delaware -5 scales to a +2.5 first-half mean.
- Own 2,042-game 2024, 26 CFB sample: full-game margin SD 15.59; sqrt-half scaling gives 11.03, not the naive 7.80.
- N(2.5, 11.03) assigns 50.0% to Delaware not exceeding 2.5; 44c NO has a six-point model cushion.
- Only two 2026 games per team; the first-half-runs-hotter adjustment is not calibrated in this sample.
Show all 8 picks
- Clayton Coppock Jr. anytime touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at +250 on DraftKings
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 36% versus DraftKings +250 implied 28.6%, a 7.4-point value margin.
- Coppock has 6 receptions, 109 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns in two 2026 appearances.
- Current-season fallback hit rate is 2-for-2, clearing the 60% form threshold despite a thin sample.
- Delaware has allowed only 218.5 opponent yards per game, 19th of 218 teams; matchup is not favorable.
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers spread +5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; 2026 current sample (2 games each): Coastal offense +0.14 EPA/play and 45.3% success versus Delaware defense -0.23 allowed.
- Explosive rates favor Coastal 15.4% to Delaware's 13.5%, adding upset-resistant variance to the underdog.
- Delaware offense averages +0.09 EPA/play and 43.0% success versus Coastal defense -0.14 allowed; matchup supports competitiveness.
- Only two 2026 efficiency games per team; the current sample is thin and prior-season fallback adds uncertainty.
Questions
Who won Coastal Carolina vs. Delaware?
Delaware won 22-14 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.