FinalWar Memorial Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAW | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| WYO | 3 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWyoming +2.5 52¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −36% return
- Wyoming +2.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Game total under 43.5+94%Won
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hawai'i: +0.18 offensive EPA/play; Wyoming allows +0.11 defensive EPA/play across three games.
- Wyoming's offense is -0.01 EPA/play; Hawai'i allows only +0.04, a poor opposing scoring matchup.
- Hawai'i has 14 days' rest versus Wyoming's 7; game-day reports list Micah Alejado and Tyler Hughes as expected starters.
- Biggest risk: Hawai'i's efficient passing attack can create quick points despite Wyoming's weak offensive outlook.
- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors to win−100%Lost
Taken at −125 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season per-play profile favors Hawai'i: +0.18 offensive EPA/play versus Wyoming -0.01; defense +0.04 allowed versus +0.11.
- QB/injury family favors Hawai'i with Micah Alejado identified as expected starter and 782 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT through three games.
- Market family still makes Hawai'i the modest favorite despite Wyoming home field; the price leaves room versus the independent estimate.
- Hawai'i has multiple official absences at WR, DB, and DL, including Pofele Ashlock; exact starter impact is not fully quantified.
- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +0.07 offensive-EPA matchup edge: Hawai'i's 3-game offense (+0.18/play) versus Wyoming's defense (+0.11 allowed).
- Hawai'i averages 1.68 points per drive and +0.26 PROE; Wyoming averages 1.31 points per drive and +0.04 PROE.
- Hawai'i averages 79.0 plays at 24.04 seconds per play, creating more opening-script possessions than Wyoming's 60.3-play profile.
- Only three 2026 games per team; opponent quality and sample stability are limited.
- Hawai'i wins 1H by over 1.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5,021 FBS games from 2021, 26 produce SD_full 15.13; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 10.69.
- current pace/PPD inputs project μ_1H about Hawai'i +1.3; normal P(margin >1.5) is 49.3%.
- Pinnacle's full-game board centers Wyoming +2.5, consistent with a Hawai'i-positive full-game mean and roughly +1.3 at halftime.
- Derived first-half rung lacks a direct independent sharp half-spread; the raised bar keeps this LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
- Game 1H total over 20.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game total is 43.5; calibrated first-half model is 23.7, not flat 21.75.
- Three-game 2026 window: Wyoming/Hawai'i pace is 21.31/24.00 seconds per play; offense averages 60.33/79.00 plays.
- 79.5 raw first-half plays × 90% stoppage adjustment ÷ 5.71 plays per drive gives 12.5 projected drives.
- Weather gust and precipitation are still null at the 9:20am warehouse observation; a late wind or rain cut would reduce drives.
Questions
Who won Hawai'i vs. Wyoming?
Wyoming won 27-10 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.