Who did the first CFP rankings get wrong?
LSU most of all. The committee has the Tigers 14th and outside the field, but every power rating has them in its top five, and ours has them 1st. Kentucky and UCLA got in on their résumés.
The committee has LSU 14th. We have the Tigers 1st.
The season-opening win against Clemson will be respected in the committee room, but LSU is still lacking a statement win, which is why the committee might like Alabama more.
The committee's first top 25 came out Tuesday night with Miami No. 1 and LSU 14th, outside the 12-team field. Through eight games, our numbers rank LSU 1st in the country, and ESPN's own FPI has it 5th.
LSU's two losses came by 9 points combined, at Ole Miss and at Kentucky, so ranking those two ahead of it is fair. Leaving it behind BYU, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee too is the call we'd argue with.
LSU lost two close ones and blew out everyone else
Hours before the reveal, ESPN's Heather Dinich called it: LSU's best win is Clemson in the opener. USA Today Sports' Matt Hayes wrote that the Tigers "have played two games of significance (Ole Miss, Kentucky), and lost both," and projected them 10th. The committee went further.
Look at how LSU lost, though: at Ole Miss by 8 and at Kentucky by 1 in overtime. It beat its other five FBS opponents by 21 to 41 points. Once you account for who it played, LSU has the country's 2nd-best defense and 11th-best offense.
Alabama sits 5th with the same 6-2 record. Its losses came by 3 to Georgia and by 16 at Tennessee, but it beat Kentucky by 28, and the committee leans on results like that.
LSU lost its two close games. Kentucky and Indiana won theirs.
LSU6-2 · one-score 0-2
Kentucky7-1 · one-score 3-0
Indiana8-1 · one-score 4-1Kentucky and UCLA are in on their résumés
The committee's field looks like a ranking of résumés. ESPN's strength of record, which grades wins by who they came against, ranks Kentucky 2nd, UCLA 3rd and Indiana 4th, and all three made the committee's top eight.
Rewarding wins is fair, and Kentucky earned some of it: it beat LSU and has played ESPN's 8th-hardest schedule. As a guide to who's actually good, though, it misses. Kentucky won all three of its close games, and no power rating we checked has Kentucky or UCLA in its top 13.
Four of our top 12 missed the committee's field, and four teams we rate lower got in
LSU
Ohio State
Wake Forest
Tennessee
UCLAIndianaKentucky
Boise StateCommittee rank vs. Snapp, ESPN FPI and SP+ ranks for the eight teams that differ between our top 12 and the committee's field.
| Team | Committee | Snapp | ESPN FPI | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 14th | 1st | 5th | 3rd |
| Ohio State | 12th | 8th | 2nd | 1st |
| Wake Forest | 16th | 11th | 11th | 25th |
| Tennessee | 13th | 12th | 14th | 11th |
| UCLA | 8th | 14th | 28th | 17th |
| Indiana | 4th | 16th | 8th | 6th |
| Kentucky | 6th | 17th | 26th | 31st |
| Boise State | 25th | 37th | 32nd | 29th |
- Kentucky (6th) would host Notre Dame, our 4th-best team, in the first round. More in our Kentucky piece.
- UCLA (8th) is 3-0 since Nico Iamaleava's season-ending knee surgery, against ESPN's 77th-ranked schedule. Is UCLA for real?
- Boise State (25th) takes the Group of 6 spot, though we rate it 37th.
Indiana got a bye on a run of close wins
ESPN's Mark Schlabach called the defending champion "a surprising choice for the top four." Indiana lost 19-15 at home to Ohio State, and its last three wins came by seven points or fewer, two in overtime. Its close wins include Northwestern and Nebraska, our 18th and 19th, two teams the committee didn't rank at all.
We have Indiana 16th, but FPI and SP+ both put the Hoosiers in their top eight, so this is a closer call than LSU. The worry is an offense that has scored 71 points in its last four games while Josh Hoover battles arm issues, as Bill Connelly noted.
Even No. 1 Miami is only 9th in our numbers. It has the country's best offense but the 52nd-ranked defense, and it needed a recovered onside kick to hold off North Carolina 38-35.
Saturday can settle most of this
Week 10 puts four of these arguments on the field: Alabama at LSU, Kentucky at Tennessee, Miami at Notre Dame and Oregon at Ohio State. Our LSU vs. Alabama preview has the Tigers by about 5.5 points over the committee's No. 5, and ranked Texas and Tennessee are still on LSU's schedule after that.
Notre Dame is our 4th-best team but 11th on the committee's list, with one loss to BYU and no win over a ranked team. Our Miami vs. Notre Dame preview breaks down that game.
Ohio State is the one drop with a clear reason. Every rating has the Buckeyes in its top 8, but Julian Sayin is out indefinitely and they lost at USC in Luke Fahey's first start.
Questions people ask
Who is No. 1 in the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2026?
Miami (8-0), followed by Georgia, Utah and Indiana, the four teams that would get first-round byes. LSU is 14th, outside the 12-team field.
Why is LSU ranked so low in the CFP rankings?
LSU is 6-2 without a signature win, and both teams that beat it, Ole Miss and Kentucky, rank ahead of it. Adjusted for opponents, LSU is 1st in our numbers and top five in FPI and SP+.
Is Kentucky really a top-6 team?
By record, yes: ESPN's strength of record ranks Kentucky 2nd. By how well it plays, no. We have Kentucky 17th, ESPN's FPI 26th and SP+ 31st.
When are the next CFP rankings?
Tuesday, Nov. 10, at about 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. The final rankings, which set the 12-team bracket, come out Sunday, Dec. 6.
How we did this
Snapp rank is our college football team rating: points gained on offense minus points allowed on defense, per play, every play weighted, garbage time removed and adjusted for each opponent, FBS teams only, games through Oct. 31 (eight or nine per team). Points per 100 plays is that rating times 100. Committee ranks are the CFP's Nov. 3 release. ESPN FPI, strength of record and SP+ ranks are as of Nov. 3. One-score games were decided by 8 points or fewer.