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FinalRCDE Stadium · Cornella de Llobregat
Elche
3–1Final
Espanyol
Score by period
Team12T
ELCH213
ESPA011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Elche CF first team to score 33¢

Why First Strike likes it: Opponent-adjusted xG: Elche attack 1.17 and Espanyol concession rate 1.34; coverage is 10 XG matches and model coverage is active.

First StrikeUp 2% return this season · 212 picksLongshots
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How the picks did

Models went 5-6 on this game · +65% return

  1. Elche to winLong shot2 models agree
    +400%Won

    Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Fair Price Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Opponent-adjusted xG is nearly level: Elche 1.17 versus Espanyol 1.21.
    • The model's away probability exceeds the 19.7% sharp-market fair estimate by 13 points.
    • Pinnacle's three-way market strongly disagrees, pricing Elche around a 19.7% devigged fair probability.
    Fair Price Pairs
    • Most likely loss: the match is drawn, which loses this 2-Way contract.
    • The model features were computed through 2026-09-15, so late team information may not be fully reflected.
  2. Elche CF first team to score
    +203%Won

    Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted xG: Elche attack 1.17 and Espanyol concession rate 1.34; coverage is 10 XG matches and model coverage is active.
    • Pinnacle supplies an independent total anchor at Over 2.5 -127; FTTS prices are internally coherent enough to trade.
    • The historical hazard sample is late-heavy; 76-90 supplied 47 of 168 goals, and the timing correction is an estimate.
  3. Draw (Tie)Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    StalemateUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • La Liga draw baseline is 24.4% blended from 14/59 current and 93/380 prior-season draws; expected xG is 2.26, just 0.05 apart.
    • Control is balanced: field-tilt gap is 7.3 points and PPDA gap is 0.74, both inside the draw gates.
    • Espanyol home draws are 5/10 and Elche away draws 3/10; both teams have three rest days.
    • Espanyol is the market favorite: Pinnacle devigged probabilities are Espanyol 54.1%, Draw 26.1%, Elche 19.8%; a home win is the likeliest loss.
  4. Over 2.5 goals scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    ParallaxDown 60% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 6.66-point sharp-versus-Kalshi-mid gap is within the 4, 12 point target zone.
    • Kalshi moved only about 1.1% relative over the past 30, 60 minutes and moved away from, not toward, the sharp under reading.
    • 1 result loses despite the market's moderate under lean.
  5. Under 2.5 Total Goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas total 2.37 (1.24 home + 1.13 away), below the 2.5 rung.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG: Espanyol 1.21 for / 1.34 against; Elche 1.17 / 1.42; gp_with_xg is 10 for both.
    • Three-goal matches lose this half-goal rung; the model's 2.37 expectation still leaves meaningful upper-tail variance.
  6. Elche wins 1st HalfLong shot
    +400%Won

    Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

    Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
Show all 10 picks
  1. Both Teams To Score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • This is a symmetric moderate-scoring case, not the asymmetric weak-attacker-versus-elite-defense setup; projected BTTS YES is 53.9%, NO 46.1%.
    • Both teams have only 10 xG-backed matches in the sample; averaging attack and opponent defense is model uncertainty.
  2. Espanyol spread NO more than 1.5 goalsFavorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted inputs: Espanyol xGF 1.21 / Elche xGA 1.42; Elche xGF 1.17 / Espanyol xGA 1.34; model lambdas 1.24 and 1.13.
    • The 59-match league distribution is not opponent-strength matched and contains an unusually high 3+ home-margin tail.
  3. Draw 0-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home is Espanyol; model key 0-0 is the contract "Draw 0-0".
    • Starting XI is unpublished; Espanyol and Elche each list three sidelined players.
  4. Match total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game_markets reports Pinnacle as the probability source at 54.6% for over 2.5; this is a projection against the sharp reference.
    • The 2.57 xG mean is only about 0.29 goals below the Kalshi ladder's roughly 2.86-goal Poisson-implied mean.

Questions

Who won Elche vs. Espanyol?

Elche won 3-1 on Friday, Sep 18, 2026.

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