FinalEstadio Abanca-Riazor · La Coruña
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DEPO | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonReal Betis wins 1st Half 37¢
Why Forty Five likes it: Scaled Dixon-Coles rates use 48.3% La Liga first-half goal share: 0.58 home, 1.01 away.
Forty FiveDown 31% this season · 76 picksLongshots
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −16% return
- Real Betis to win−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCoaches Corner, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Coaches Corner- Confirmed 4-3-3 Betis shape can create a midfield 3v2 against Deportivo's 4-4-2.
- Betis' rolling profile leads 17.30, 7.83 in shots and 0.48, 0.40 in field tilt.
- Deportivo's higher directness ratio, 0.79 versus Betis' 0.65, gives Hidalgo a counterattacking route at home.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Real Betis away form: 8 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses and 24 points.
- Opponent-adjusted xGF is 1.66 for Betis versus 1.09 for Deportivo; adjusted xGA favors Betis 1.33 to 1.61.
- Betis has three rest days and two players sidelined; player identities and impact are not detailed here.
- Real Betis wins 1st Half+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Scaled Dixon-Coles rates use 48.3% La Liga first-half goal share: 0.58 home, 1.01 away.
- Pinnacle h2h_h1 lists Real Betis at +166; Shin fair probability is 36.5%.
- Kalshi first-half set is tradeable: 36c/37c Betis, 39c/40c tie, 22c/23c Deportivo; sum of mids 98.5%.
- First-half tie remains the model's largest single outcome at 35.4%; 0-0 and 1-1 dominate the loss paths.
- Total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION (LEAN), confirmed Betis 4-3-3 against Deportivo’s 4-4-2 creates a structural width and transition route.
- Betis averages 17.3 shots and 6.4 shots on target away versus Deportivo’s 7.83 and 3.33 at home.
- The style gap favors Betis territorial control: .478 away field tilt versus Deportivo’s .404, with both teams flagged fixture-congested.
- Deportivo has one extra rest day and the stronger press signal, 12.5 PPDA versus Betis’ 13.57, which could disrupt Betis’ build-out.
- Total goals under 2.5+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Deportivo's confirmed XI leaves Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang on the bench; he started the prior match and carries 0.57 xG_p90.
- Real Betis also leaves recent starter Isco (0.45 xG_p90) and Troy Parrott (0.49 xG_p90) among the substitutes.
- Most likely loss: Betis's superior attack converts three goals despite the attacking absences.
- Deportivo A Coruña moneyline +180−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Real Betis vs. Deportivo A Coruña?
Deportivo A Coruña won 1-1 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.