FinalRiyadh Air Metropolitano · Madrid
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RM | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ATLE | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAtlético de Madrid to win 28¢
Why First model likes it: Atlético won its last two competitive matches: 3-0 at Real Sociedad, then 4-0 vs Osasuna.
First modelUp 2% return this season · 34 picksLongshots
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-1 on this game · +79% return
- Atlético de Madrid to win+257%Won
Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US
First modelDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Atlético won its last two competitive matches: 3-0 at Real Sociedad, then 4-0 vs Osasuna.
- Atlético is at home; the candidate-underdog gate and two-win gate are both satisfied.
- The sportsbook board also shows Atlético at +255 DraftKings and +250 FanDuel, confirming underdog status.
- Real Madrid is 4-0-1 over its last five, with a +8 goal differential.
- Real Madrid−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Number EarnedDown 28% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Real Madrid 2.73 for versus Atlético 1.23; defensive xG allowed is nearly even.
- Real Madrid leads the club Elo comparison 1848 to 1692, a 156-point gap.
- Confirmed XI includes Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Bellingham and Valverde; Álvarez and Lookman are on Atlético's bench.
- Derby volatility and the model's 18.0% draw probability make the three-way outcome fragile.
Questions
Who won Real Madrid vs. Atlético de Madrid?
Atlético de Madrid won 2-1 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.