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FinalEstadio de Mestalla · Valencia
Real Sociedad
3–2Final
Valencia
Score by period
Team12T
RS123
VALE022

How the picks did

Models went 0-23 on this game · −100% return

  1. Valencia to win5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    5 modelsStanding Order, Snapp Decision of the Day +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Standing Order
    • PROJECTION secondary: model corroborates Valencia, with model_p_home 0.52 versus model_p_away 0.18 and lambdas 1.32 versus 0.66.
    • Pinnacle's 3-way board also places Valencia ahead of Real Sociedad at +181 versus +167, as of 11:23 AM PT. ProphetX board as of 11:26:40 AM PT.
    • Valencia has 11 players sidelined and its starting XI is only partially confirmed; the feature model was computed through September 17.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Warehouse model gives Valencia 52.0% home-win probability from 1.32, 0.66 expected goals.
    • FanDuel +190 implies 34.5%, creating a large model-versus-price gap.
    • Pinnacle's sharper three-way market prices Valencia near 34.7% fair probability, a major disagreement with the warehouse model.
    Fair Price Pairs
      • The 3.94-point gap is modest, so model error and match variance can erase it.
      Deep Book
        • LEAN only. The 4.27x ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold.
      • Match total under 2.5 goals2 models agree
        −100%Lost

        Taken at −120 on BetMGM

        2 modelsCoaches Corner, Open Play
        Why 2 models like it
        Coaches Corner
        • Both confirmed starting XIs are listed in a 4-4-2, supporting a mirrored, compact midfield structure.
        • The current preview describes Valencia under Óscar Sánchez as likely to keep the match tight.
        • The style-preview macro returned no row, so the coach-versus-coach press and transition matchup is not directly quantified.
        Open Play
        • Poisson fair under 2.5 is approximately 58.6%; ProphetX under 2.5 is 51.46c (-106).
        • Pinnacle same-rung under -109, devigged 50.9%; model exceeds it by roughly 7.7 percentage points.
        • Only 10 xG-backed matches per team: moderate coverage, with a wider error bar than a 20-plus-game sample.
      • Valencia −0.5 spreadHigh conviction
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

        Half Goal PairsUp 2% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Confirmed starting XIs show 11 starters for both teams before pricing; feature coverage is clean with xG data across 10 matches per side.
        • Most likely loss is a draw or Real Sociedad win; either misses Valencia -0.5 entirely.
      • Under 2.5 Total GoalsHigh conviction
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

        Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Opponent-adjusted xG supports the low total: Valencia 1.05 for / 1.01 against; Real Sociedad 0.91 for / 1.71 against.
        • Three or more goals loses; an early penalty, red card, or defensive error can break a low-total script.
      • Total goals under 2.5
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

        Two NilUp 12% last 7 days
      • Valencia CF first team to score
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

        First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
        Why it likes it
        • Pinnacle 2.5-goal total is Over -101 / Under -109, providing an independent sharp reference.
        • FTTS mids are Valencia 44.5c, Real Sociedad 47.5c, No Goal 6.5c; the set sums to 98.5c.
        • Pinnacle prices Valencia to win at +189 versus the warehouse model's 52.0% home-win probability; the model-market conflict is material.
      Show all 18 picks
      1. Real Sociedad winner NO
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

        Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • confirmed XI observed 11:26:37 PT; Orri Óskarsson (0.65 xG/90) is not starting, with Takefusa Kubo also on the bench.
        • away lambda 0.66 before the XI; subtracting Óskarsson's xG/90 gives 0.01 after.
        • last Kalshi change was 11:23:00 PT, before the confirmed-XI observation at 11:26:37 PT.
        • Óskarsson is on the bench, not ruled out; substitute minutes can restore part of his attacking value.
      2. Valencia −0.5
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

        Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • PROJECTION; confirmed starters' attacking xG: Valencia 1.75 vs Real Sociedad 1.27, a +0.48 team-sheet gap.
        • Valencia starters include Hugo Duro (0.29 xG/90) and Arnaut Danjuma (0.27); the XI is fully populated for both teams.
        • The spread is a Valencia win contract; any draw or Real Sociedad win loses.
      3. Valencia +0.5
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

        Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 days
      4. Draw (Tie)Long shot
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi

        StalemateUp 10% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • My fair probabilities are Valencia 36.0%, Draw 30.5%, Real Sociedad 33.5% (100.0% total).
        • Most likely loss is a side separating this low-total shape, especially a 1-0 or 2-1 result.
      5. Match under 2.5 total goals
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

        Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Pre-match xG rates imply roughly 1.83 combined goals: Valencia 0.92, Real Sociedad 0.91.
        • Pinnacle's under -109 versus over -101 directionally agrees, while captured movement is quiet-to-slightly toward the under.
        • The warehouse projection is based on 10-match rolling samples per team; calibration is not independently validated here.
      6. Tie 1st Half
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

        Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
      7. Valencia spread over 1.5Long shot
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 14¢ on Kalshi

        HandicapDown 14% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Same-season La Liga sample: home teams won by 2+ in 15 of 64 matches (23.4%), consistent with the model tail.
        • no independent sharp price for this exact Valencia >1.5 rung was captured; Kalshi is the venue reference.
        • The 64-match empirical distribution is competition-wide, not Valencia-specific; early-season variance is material.
      8. Valencia spread +0.5
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

        Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
      9. Valencia CF wins 2-0 correct scoreLong shot
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi

        ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • PROJECTION. Model key 2-0 is the contract “Valencia CF wins 2-0”.
        • Orientation: home is Valencia; away is Real Sociedad; model key 2-0 maps directly to Valencia CF wins 2-0.
        • Top-k coverage is sound: 10 xG games minimum; live qualifying subset totals 72 cents.
        • Valencia lineup confirmation was not posted at the 9:26 AM PT lookup; late XI news can invalidate model inputs.
      10. Valencia moneyline win
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

        Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • confirmed XI: Valencia attacking-XI xG 1.75 vs usual-XI baseline 0.90 (+0.86); Real Sociedad 1.27 vs 1.61 (-0.34).
        • Takefusa Kubo is benched for Real Sociedad; his recent 0.23 xG in 172 minutes (~0.12 per 90) supports the away-side attacking downgrade.
        • The Kubo bench effect and aggregate XI-xG deltas may not translate cleanly to tactical performance; substitute roles are uncertain.
      11. Game total under 2.5 goals
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

        Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Warehouse model makes under 2.5 goals 68.1%, with combined expected goals of 1.98.
        • Valencia home expected goals for is 0.92; Real Sociedad away expected goals for is 0.91.
        • Real Sociedad's opponent-adjusted away xG for is only 0.91, while Valencia's home xG profile is low-event.
        • The head-to-head sample averages 3.25 total goals across four meetings, higher than the model's 1.98 expectation.
      12. Both Teams To Score NO
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

        Both NetsDown 6% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Valencia scoring read: 74% from 1.05 opp-adjusted xGF versus Real Sociedad's 1.67 xGA; 10-match xG sample.
        • Real Sociedad scoring read: 64% from 0.91 opp-adjusted xGF versus Valencia's 1.14 xGA; 10-match xG sample.
        • The scoring read is roughly symmetric rather than a classic weak-attacker versus elite-defense BTTS-NO setup.

      Questions

      Who won Real Sociedad vs. Valencia?

      Real Sociedad won 3-2 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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