FinalEstadio El Sadar · Pamplona
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAYO | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| OSAS | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonCA Osasuna first team to score 49¢
Why First Strike likes it: Lambdas 1.86 home and 1.22 away imply a 60.5% home share of first-goal arrivals.
First StrikeUp 2% return this season · 212 picksLongshots
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-9 on this game · −65% return
- Osasuna to win−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Osasuna’s opponent-adjusted xG profile is stronger: 1.50 for and 1.32 against versus Rayo’s 1.28 and 1.73.
- Model expected goals favor Osasuna 1.86 to 1.22 at home.
- The 51.9% model output is not independently calibrated and diverges sharply from the market.
Number Earned- 51.9% warehouse win probability implies a fair contract price near 52¢.
- Model expected goals: Osasuna 1.86, Rayo Vallecano 1.22.
- Starting XIs were not posted at the 4:30 AM PDT check.
- Osasuna win−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Coverage is complete: model, form, xG, ratings flags true; nine xG matches support the projection.
- Kalshi home quote moved +0.00 probability/minute with +0.00 acceleration, running with the projection.
- Cohort mapping is clean to Osasuna full-time win, but global flow remains signal rather than price evidence.
- Match total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 days - CA Osasuna first team to score+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Lambdas 1.86 home and 1.22 away imply a 60.5% home share of first-goal arrivals.
- Pooled goal timing is late-heavy: 9, 17, 14, 12, 9, 29 by successive 15-minute buckets; no side-specific late split.
- Both Teams To Score+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Blended opp-adjusted λ gives Osasuna scoring probability ≈81.1% against Rayo's 1.83 xGA.
- Rayo's blended λ is 1.23; its scoring probability ≈70.7% against Osasuna's 1.17 xGA.
- One clean sheet loses; the model still gives Rayo a 29.3% chance of not scoring.
- Osasuna spread over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- La Liga 2026 sample: exact goal differences 0, +1, +2, +3 occurred at 23.3%, 21.7%, 5.0%, 13.3%; the ladder is visibly lumpy.
- A two-goal Osasuna win loses outright; the half-goal line provides no push protection.
Show all 10 picks
- CA Osasuna wins 3-1−100%Lost
Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; home is Osasuna; model key 3-1 maps to Kalshi contract “CA Osasuna wins 3-1”.
- exact-score markets lack an independent sharp quote; value is structural model-versus-contract pricing.
- Exact-score variance is high; 3-1 is only the model’s sixth-largest outcome.
- Match over 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Expected goals total 3.08: Osasuna 1.86 and Rayo Vallecano 1.22.
- Opponent-adjusted xG allows are 1.32 for Osasuna and 1.73 for Rayo, creating two-way scoring paths.
- The four-match head-to-head sample averages 3.0 goals with both teams scoring in 75%.
- The sharp sportsbook total still prefers the under at -127, so the model is fighting the principal market signal.
- Total Goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days - Rayo Vallecano spread −0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Spread flow is 3.0x toward Rayo: $300 versus $100 on Osasuna +0.5. The 2-way moneyline is 3.6x Rayo; the 3-way board is 4.9x Rayo versus Osasuna.
- The flow signal is persistent across spread, 2-way moneyline, and 3-way moneyline. The position is LEAN because the sport model disagrees.
- Starting XIs are not posted. The warehouse lists seven Rayo sidelined players, without composition detail.
Questions
Who won Rayo Vallecano vs. Osasuna?
Osasuna won 1-1 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.