FinalAbanca-Balaídos · Vigo
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CDV | 2 | 3 | 5 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-7 on this game · −100% return
- Racing Santander to win−100%Lost
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
4 modelsCoaches Corner, Low Tide Line +2Why 4 models like it
Coaches Corner- Racing's announced 4-2-3-1 and lower PPDA (10.85 vs Celta's 16.68) support a more disruptive pressing plan.
- Celta's 3-4-2-1/3-4-3 structure can leave build-up and wing-back spaces vulnerable to Racing's double-pivot press.
- The 50.1% model probability is an unusually large outlier versus the three-way market and may be miscalibrated.
Low Tide Line- Racing’s rolling xG attack is 1.41 per match versus Celta’s 0.88; Celta’s xG-against rate is 1.49.
- Directional coherence: projection and global cohort favor Racing; no sharp reference is populated, while recent Kalshi movement modestly favors Celta.
- The model-versus-market gap exceeds 15 points, so model misspecification or an unrecorded lineup factor is plausible.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Racing 1.51 to Celta 0.90; model expected goals are 1.77 to 1.21.
- Celta are reported without Iago Aspas and Andrés Antañón, weakening the home attack.
- Racing's recent xG sample is only six matches; Celta's is ten, so model variance is substantial.
Number Earned- Model makes Racing Santander a 50.1% winner; fair line is approximately -100.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Racing 1.51 for versus Celta 0.90, with away xG 1.77 versus 1.21.
- The away xG sample covers only six matches, so the estimate is thin and high variance.
- Racing Santander first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle posts a live 2.75-goal total at -103/-107, an independent high-goal anchor.
- Away-side model edge remains 21.1 points after the conservative hazard correction.
- Only six away-side XG fixtures meet the minimum coverage; the sample is thin.
- Racing Santander wins 2-1−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION. Home is Celta de Vigo; model key 1-2 is 'Racing Santander wins 2-1'.
- Top-k contract with min_gp_with_xg 6; screened live subset is 74.0%.
- Correct-score outcomes are mutually exclusive and high variance; the model top-k is truncated to six scores.
- Racing Santander spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles goal-difference model gives Racing Santander 27.7% to win by 2+; lambdas are 1.77 away and 1.21 home.
- no independent sharp quote exists at the exact +1.5 rung; Pinnacle's Celta -0.5 line is not interchangeable. Rest is even at 3 days each.
- The away lambda and early-season form window may be noisy; the model could be the wrong number rather than Kalshi.
Questions
Who won Racing Santander vs. Celta de Vigo?
Celta de Vigo won 5-0 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.