Levante vs. Villarreal: Final Score & Model Picks

FinalEstadio de la Cerámica · Villarreal

Levante

1–3Final

Villarreal

Score by period
Team	1	2	T
LEV	1	0	1
VILL	1	2	3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Both Teams To Score 61¢

Why Both Nets likes it: Symmetric BTTS case: both attacks project solidly; no low-attacker versus elite-defense asymmetry.

Both NetsDown 6% this season · 589 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 1-7 on this game · −80% return

Total goals under 3.52 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsBench Boss, Deep Book
Why 2 models like it
Bench Boss
- Villarreal has 3 days' rest with a fixture-congestion flag; Levante has 7 days and no congestion.
- Confirmed starting XIs are 4-3-3 for both teams; Villarreal's 57.7% possession and 0.55 field tilt support territorial control.
- The warehouse model projects 3.64 goals and 70.4% over 2.5, a material disagreement with this coaching/rest read.
Deep Book
- Most likely loss: an early goal produces an open match and a fourth goal.
Levante to winLong shot2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at +440 on FanDuel
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number Earned
Why 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day
- Warehouse Dixon-Coles model makes Levante the winner 41.1%; market devig baseline is 17.8%.
- Model expected goals favor Levante 1.88 to Villarreal 1.76.
- The model inputs are computed through September 17, three days before kickoff.
Number Earned
- Model gives Levante a 41.1% away-win probability; fair line is +144.
- Levante's opponent-adjusted away xG is 1.70 versus Villarreal home xG-against 1.49.
- Villarreal's home Elo is 51.85 points higher and its venue-form record is 21 points from 10 matches.
Levante UD first team to score
−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
Why it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Villarreal 1.90 for and 1.49 against; Levante 1.70 for and 1.28 against.
- Historical goal timing in fixture IDs 19732670, 19732720 is late-heavy: 37 goals at 76-90 versus 13 at 0-15; a conservative correction tilts slightly toward Villarreal late but leaves Levante near 50%.
- FTTS quote screen passes: all three contracts trading, 1c spreads, and the three mids sum to 98.5c.
- Ten-game xG samples are limited; the model may misallocate the scoring share despite a strong price gap.
LevanteLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Confirmed XI rows are present for both teams; starters include Ayoze Pérez for Villarreal and Iván Romero for Levante.
- Rest shock: Villarreal have 3 rest days versus Levante's 7; rest_diff is -4.
- Villarreal alone carries the congestion flag: true versus Levante false.
- Draw probability remains material in a three-way soccer market.
Both Teams To Score
+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Symmetric BTTS case: both attacks project solidly; no low-attacker versus elite-defense asymmetry.
- no independent sharp BTTS quote was captured; edge class PROJECTION; band LEAN; YES direction is coherent.
- Only 10 xG matches per side; one tactical or personnel change can move the scoring reads.
Villarreal spread over 2.5Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION; lambda cross-check gives Villarreal >2.5 probability 0.25 versus Kalshi yes_ask 0.22.
- Dixon-Coles home-minus-0.5 AH anchor is 0.64; current La Liga season has 16 draws and 13 one-goal home margins in 60 matches, supporting a lumpy ladder read.
- no independent sharp exact >2.5 handicap price was posted; Pinnacle's live ladder stopped at -2.0, so this is capped at LEAN.