FinalAllianz Field · Saint Paul
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLC | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| MINN | 0 | 3 | 3 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-7 on this game · −100% return
- Total goals under 4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At 0-2 through 29', time-scaling the 3.19 pre-match mean gives about 4.16 full-match goals, below the live Kalshi ladder's roughly 4.4 implied total.
- Both teams' pressing indicators are moderately active (PPDA 9.13 and 13.66), a secondary signal against a hard under.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Minnesota xGF 1.64 / xGA 1.70 (10 matches with xG); St. Louis xGF 1.57 / xGA 1.46 (9 matches with xG).
- The prior meeting finished Minnesota United 2, St. Louis City 4; an early error or transition goal can break the under.
- Match total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates imply 1.55 Minnesota goals and 1.64 St. Louis goals.
- The 3.19 combined rate yields approximately 60.6% for three goals or fewer.
- Pinnacle's sharp 3.25 total is shaded under at -121, providing the required sharp anchor.
- The warehouse model's own lambdas are 1.71 and 1.93, implying only about 50.6% under 3.5.
- St. Louis City to win−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model gives St. Louis City 43.0% win probability versus 37¢ on the verified Kalshi contract.
- St. Louis is 6-0-4 away with a +14 goal difference; Minnesota is 1-3-6 at home with -4.
- St. Louis owns a 4-0-1 recent record; Minnesota is 0-3-2 over its last five.
- Both teams have three days' rest and congestion flags; fatigue could compress St. Louis's edge.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Minnesota scoring read 78.6% (λ≈1.55); 20 xG matches, 9-game minimum feature coverage.
- St. Louis scoring read 80.6% (λ≈1.64); 19 xG-for and xG-against matches, a symmetric scoring setup.
- One goal from each side loses immediately; soccer finishing and defensive errors create wide variance.
- St. Louis City spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted inputs are Minnesota 1.64 xGF / 1.46 xGA and St. Louis City 1.57 xGF / 1.70 xGA; Dixon-Coles lambdas are 1.71 and 1.93.
Show all 7 picks
- St. Louis City−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- St. Louis is 6-4-0 away with a +14 goal difference; Minnesota is 1-3-6 at home with -4.
- Opponent-adjusted xGA favors St. Louis 1.46 to Minnesota's 1.70, with a roughly 202-point Elo advantage.
- Starting XIs are not posted; late lineup news could materially change the matchup.
Questions
Who won St. Louis City vs. Minnesota United?
Minnesota United won 3-2 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.