Chiefs vs. BroncosFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalEmpower Field at Mile High

Chiefs5–1

24–28Final

Broncos5–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
KC	7	10	7	0	24
DEN	3	10	0	15	28

Top model pick, graded

Won

Travis Kelce over 46.5 receiving yards −111

Why NFL Regression Radar likes it: 77.3% average snap share and 29.3 route snaps across those three games.

NFL Regression RadarDown 6% this season · 73 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 13-16 on this game · −9% return

Kansas City Chiefs to win11 models agreeHigh conviction
1.93x52¢
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
+93% profit if it wins
11 modelsBrewing NFL Moneylines 2.0, Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails +9
Why 11 models like it
Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
- Kansas City leads current opponent-adjusted form in offense EPA by 0.120, success rate by 7.3 points, and explosive rate by 5.9 points.
- Both quarterbacks are confirmed: Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix; Kansas City also owns a 15.4-point PFF offense-grade advantage.
- Denver is at home, and the market moved seven cents toward the Broncos from the opening Kansas City -115.
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
- Both lineup statuses are unconfirmed; Jaylen Waddle, Zach Allen, Garett Bolles, Brandon Jones and Jonah Coleman remain questionable.
Quantitative +EV Analyst
- +0.156 EPA/play net-efficiency gap favors Kansas City over Denver.
- Kansas City leads success rate 46.7% to 39.4% and has the stronger defense input.
- Pinnacle movement shifted modestly toward Denver; sharp support is not aligned with this position.
Pigskin Pete
- Recent six-game offense EPA/play: Kansas City +0.0246 versus Denver -0.0385.
- Kansas City leads recent success rate .4669 to .4011 and explosive-play rate .1454 to .0936.
- Kansas City lost two starting-caliber corners, creating a correlated secondary downgrade against Denver's home passing environment.
Kansas City Chiefs first-half winner2 models agree
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision
Why 2 models like it
Locker Room
- Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; named edge class: PROJECTION.
- KC's 2026 offense is +0.0246 EPA/play versus Denver's -0.0954; KC success rate is .4669 versus .3944.
- No depth-chart starters are on file and several players are out or questionable, so expected personnel and game script remain uncertain.
Split Decision
- [PROJECTION] Rest is even at 7 days each; KC's edge is efficiency, not a rest mismatch.
- KC leads to-date EPA inputs: offense +0.0246 versus Denver -0.0954; KC defensive EPA allowed -0.0855 versus Denver -0.0492.
- No rest advantage: both teams have 7 days, so the brief's strongest lever is absent.
Denver Broncos to win2 models agree
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsInactives Parity, Skip Bayless Tracker
Why 2 models like it
Inactives Parity
- Chiefs' official inactive report and live lineup show top corner L'Jarius Sneed out/on IR; Denver's QB, WR1, LT, top corner and lead pass rusher are confirmed active.
- Sharp moneyline remained effectively even after the inactive window: Pinnacle last moved to Denver -105 at 8:10 AM PT, before the 12:04, 12:06 PM inactive timestamps.
- Sneed's IR status may have been known before the official inactive release, so the sharp market may already have anticipated the absence.
Skip Bayless Tracker
- At 4:22 PM PT, @RealSkipBayless wrote: “Mahomes just took an awful sack and Butker missed again... Broncos win.”
- Denver led Kansas City 27-24 with 1:56 remaining in the live slate snapshot.
- Kansas City still had time to tie or win, and one late turnover, score, or defensive stop changes the result.
Kansas City Chiefs spread −1.52 models agree
2.00x50¢
Taken at +100 on DraftKings
+100% profit if it wins
2 modelsNFL Spread Detective, ProphetX Pairs
Why 2 models like it
NFL Spread Detective
- KC EPA strategy score +0.7648 vs DEN -0.2088; EPA edge +0.9736 clears the +0.50 trigger.
- KC primary EPA score +0.3848 vs DEN -0.0982; primary edge +0.4830 clears the +0.20 trigger.
- Only 6 KC and 7 DEN regular-season games supply the current-season sample; variance remains meaningful.
ProphetX Pairs
- KC leads Denver by 0.120 EPA/play on offense (+0.0246 vs -0.0954).
- KC's defense is better by EPA/play allowed (-0.0855 vs -0.0492), with equal seven-day rest and both QBs confirmed active.
- Denver is home, and the spread loses if KC wins by one point or loses outright.
Kansas City Chiefs spread −7.5Long shotHigh conviction
−100%Lost
Taken at 25¢ on Polymarket US
Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Efficiency form favors Kansas City: offense EPA/play +0.0246 vs Denver -0.0954, success .4669 vs .3944, explosive .1454 vs .0862.
- Most likely loss: Kansas City wins by seven or fewer, or Denver wins outright; the -7.5 rung needs an eight-point Kansas City victory.
Travis Kelce over 46.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
+90%Won
Taken at −111 on DraftKings
NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 77.3% average snap share and 29.3 route snaps across those three games.
- 5.67 targets per game with 9.8 season yards per target supports a roughly 54-yard projection.
- Denver owns a strong recent defense: -0.061 defensive EPA allowed per play over five games.

Show all 36 picks

Kansas City Chiefs exact margin 7-14Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 11¢ on Polymarket US
Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
Kansas City Chiefs first-half spread −2.5Favorite
+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 7 rest days each; rest gap 0, so this is not a short-week angle.
- KC PPD 2.2165 vs Denver 1.7395; pace is nearly even (30.57 vs 30.39), supporting a KC efficiency edge without a possession-count distortion.
- Live score is Kansas City 7, Denver 3 at 4:29 Q1; DERIVED REFERENCE projects roughly a 72% chance KC is still ahead by 3+ at halftime.
- Rest is neutral at 7-7; the brief's strongest lever is absent.
Game 1Q total over 10.5Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 7¢ on Polymarket US
Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Live score is Kansas City 7, Denver 3 with about 2:07 left in Q1; one point clears 10.5.
- Both teams have already scored in the quarter, and Denver had possession after Kansas City’s punt.
- Only about two minutes remain; a stalled Denver series can end the opportunity immediately.
Game 1Q total over 7.5
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- REFERENCE; edge class PROJECTION, no external sharp quarter quote, so the fitted distribution drives this call.
- Opening-script angle: both confirmed starters enter with pass rates over expectation of +10.1% KC and +9.4% Denver.
- KC averages 2.217 points per drive and Denver 1.740; roughly five combined first-quarter possessions puts the fitted mean near 8.5 points.
- Five or fewer possessions, a punt, turnover, or red-zone stall can keep the quarter at seven or fewer.
Game under 20.5 first-half total
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- the 41.5 full-game total is paired with 20.5 for each half, summing to 41.0; the normal second-half scoring bump makes the first-half fair mean slightly below 20.5.
- Current points per drive are 2.2165 for KC and 1.7395 for Denver, with nearly equal pace; an equal half-drive allocation centers this first-half total around 20 rather than 20.5.
- Half-total variance scales with the square root of drives, not linearly with half the game; the lower tail remains meaningful around this threshold.
- The current PPD inputs cover only seven Denver games and six Kansas City games, so the fitted mean is sample-sensitive.
Kansas City Chiefs −0.5 first-half spread
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 1H KC -0.5 is 46c; 2H KC -0.5 is 50c, while the sharp full-game anchor is about KC -1, so the half lines reconcile to the game expectation.
- KC's current profile is stronger on both sides: +0.0246 offensive EPA/play and -0.0855 defensive EPA allowed versus Denver at -0.0954 and -0.0492.
- Pace is nearly identical at 30.57 seconds/play for KC and 30.39 for Denver, so there is no obvious pace-based reason to suppress KC's early edge.
- First-half starters are not confirmed in the warehouse; Denver has Jaylen Waddle questionable and KC has multiple defensive absences.
Kansas City Chiefs over 10.5 first-half team total
+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US
IntermissionUp 54% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- REFERENCE / INTERNAL COHERENCE; 65 of 66 screened contracts retained after quote-integrity checks.
- The venue prices KC over 10.5 at 0.41 in the 1H ladder versus 0.47 at the same 10.5 rung in the 2H ladder.
- Six-game sample is thin; KC had a zero-point first half last week and a 20-point first half on 10/18.
Kenneth Walker III over 86.5 rushing yards
−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on DraftKings
NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 113.7 rushing yards average across his last three games: 177, 128, and 36.
- Denver ranks 26th in EPA per rush allowed, a bottom-12 matchup.
- 86.5 yards is 76% of his three-game average; DraftKings offers -114.
- His latest outing produced only 36 yards on 14 carries; the recent average is highly volatile.
Courtland Sutton under 36.5 receiving yards
−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Confirmed DEN line: Bolles, Powers, Wattenberg, Meinerz and McGlinchey; Sutton is an active starting WR.
- DEN pass-block 63.0 vs KC DL pass-rush 68.0 creates a modest pressure edge; Sutton gets a shorter-route environment.
- Sutton has 168 yards in seven games, 33 targets, and only 30.6 yards per game in Denver wins.
- Confirmed active Bolles and Questionable-but-active Waddle can still affect protection and target distribution late.
Kenneth Walker III first touchdown scorerLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi
Run First & Anytime TD QuantDown 26% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 79.4% red-zone rushing share: 27 of Kansas City's 34 red-zone rushes over the last four games.
- Denver's 0.0608 rushing EPA allowed per play ranks third-worst in the 32-team current-season table.
- Kansas City carries a 21.5-point implied total, above the brief's 20.0 minimum.
- First-touchdown markets add ordering variance: Denver could score first or Kansas City could open with a pass.
Kenneth Walker III over 0.5 touchdowns
1.82x55¢
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
+82% profit if it wins
Run First & Anytime TD QuantDown 26% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 79.4% red-zone rushing share: 27 of Kansas City's 34 red-zone rushes over the last four games.
- Denver allows 0.0608 rushing EPA per play, third-worst among 32 teams in the current-season sample.
- Kansas City implied for 21.5 points from the 41.5 total and Denver +1.5 spread.
- 21.5 implied points clears the gate but is below the brief's 24-point high-conviction bar.
Total points under 42
1.96x51¢
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
+96% profit if it wins
Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Six-game Kansas City offense is +0.0246 EPA/play against Denver's -0.0492 defensive EPA/play allowed; seven-game Denver offense is -0.0954 against Kansas City's -0.0855 defense.
- Pace is nearly neutral at 30.57 seconds/play for Kansas City and 30.39 for Denver; both PROE rates are aggressive but similar at 0.1008 and 0.0938, limiting a one-sided pace surge.
- Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed active: Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix; both teams clear the three-game coverage gate, with seven days' rest each.
- Most likely loss: Kansas City's passing efficiency and Denver's aggressive PROE combine for explosive scoring despite Denver's negative offensive EPA.
Kansas City Chiefs spread −1
2.04x49¢
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
+104% profit if it wins
Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Six-game KC offense is +0.0246 EPA/play; seven-game Denver offense is -0.0954, while the matchup favors KC against Denver's -0.0492 defensive EPA allowed.
- PFF reinforces the offensive mismatch: KC offense grades 78.4 versus Denver 63.0; KC's overall grade is 80.8 versus 72.3.
- Most likely loss: Denver's home-field edge and stronger pass-rush grade (83.7 versus KC 72.3) hold KC below expectation.
Denver Broncos 1Q to win
−100%Lost
Taken at −102 on BetMGM
NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- KC's first-quarter defense allowed +0.0957 EPA/play over its last five games, above the -0.05 threshold.
- Denver is 4-1 in its last five and is the full-game spread underdog at +1.5.
- BetMGM's -102 implies 50.5%; my estimate is 52.5% for Denver to lead after one quarter.
- Denver scored only 16 first-quarter points over its last five games, 3.2 per game, below the 4.0 confirmation threshold.
Denver Broncos under 21.5 team points
−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- RECOMMENDED; reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; edge class: INTERNAL COHERENCE plus PROJECTION.
- Fitted Denver scoring band is roughly 18, 20 points: Denver offense EPA/play is -0.0954 against Kansas City defense EPA/play allowed of -0.0855.
- Denver's season-to-date points per drive is 1.7395, a poor conversion baseline against a strong opposing defensive efficiency profile.
- Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes are expected, not confirmed; inactives had not posted at the lookup, so a late quarterback change would materially alter the model.
Kansas City Chiefs −2.5
2.22x45¢
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
+122% profit if it wins
Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Kansas City leads current offensive EPA/play 0.0246 to Denver -0.0954, defensive EPA allowed -0.0855 to -0.0492, and PFF overall grade 80.8 to 72.3.
- Mahomes' 2026 PFF passing grade is 76.3 versus Nix's 50.6; the venue's main moneyline and ladder point toward Kansas City, not Denver.
- Most likely loss: Kansas City wins by 1, 2 points, or Denver wins outright; either result misses -2.5.
Bo Nix under 216.5 passing yards
−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- DEN owns -0.095 offensive EPA/play and 39.4% success rate across seven prior games.
- Live Denver passing is -0.117 EPA/play, 33.3% success, and 4.0 yards/attempt on six dropbacks.
- Denver trails only 7-3 with 2:07 left in Q1, so 216.5 remains 54.6 yards above Nix's 161.9-season average.
- Six live dropbacks are a thin sample; one explosive completion can materially change the projection.
Bo Nix under 33.5 passing attempts
+79%Won
Taken at −126 on DraftKings
NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 63.0% model probability versus 55.8% DraftKings break-even: +7.2 percentage points.
- Nix averages 31.1 attempts over seven 2026 games and 27.7 over his last three; the market is 33.5.
- Kansas City's current-season defense allows -0.0855 EPA/play, while Denver's offense is -0.0954 EPA/play with a 20.6-point scoring average.
- A Kansas City lead can force Denver into a pass-heavy comeback script; Nix already reached 42 attempts once and 34 once.
Bo Nix under 208.5 passing yards
−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 27% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Nix is a confirmed starter; 2026 average is 181.6 passing yards across seven games.
- Nix stayed under 208.5 in 4 of 7 current-season games and 6 of his last 10.
- The Chiefs allow -0.0855 defensive EPA per play this season, a strong suppression signal.
- The current-season sample is only seven games, and Nix exceeded this number twice recently.
Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns
+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Mahomes is the confirmed QB1 with a 100% season snap share.
- Kansas City has converted 15 of 23 red-zone trips; Denver has allowed 10 conversions on 22 trips.
- Kansas City brings +0.0246 offensive EPA per play and 2.216 points per drive into this matchup.
- Kansas City rushing scores can displace passing touchdowns near the goal line.
J.K. Dobbins first Denver Broncos touchdownLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Dobbins is the confirmed Denver RB1; RJ Harvey is on injured reserve and ruled out.
- Dobbins carries an early-down-hammer role with a 40.5% snap share and 52.9% run-snap rate.
- Kansas City has allowed only 4 touchdowns on 15 opponent red-zone trips.
Kenneth Walker over 0.5 touchdowns
1.79x56¢
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
+79% profit if it wins
PaydirtUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 74.7% snap share with a workhorse RB role; no depth-chart player is ahead of him.
- Kansas City averaged 3.8 red-zone attempts and 2.2 conversions across its last six games.
- Denver opponents averaged 2.8 red-zone attempts and 1.2 conversions across their last six.
- Denver's recent red-zone defense allowed only 7 conversions on 17 opponent trips.
Denver Broncos +3.5
1.56x64¢
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
+56% profit if it wins
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are Denver 3 versus Kansas City 3; the count is neutral, while thin-at-quote plus deeper total provides two aligned measures.
- Backing Denver Broncos +3.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX price is 63.5¢ (-174).
- No independent sharp reference exists at this exact +3.5 rung; the read is entirely ProphetX self-reference.
Kansas City Chiefs −3
2.50x40¢
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
+150% profit if it wins
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Chiefs -3 wins by 4+, pushes on an exact 3-point win; Chiefs -3.5 loses on that same 3-point margin.
- ProphetX priced Chiefs -3 at +152 (39.68¢) versus adjacent -3.5 at +168 (37.31¢): only 2.37¢ separation.
- Exactly 3 is a push, not a win; Kansas City by 2 or fewer loses.
Bo Nix under 206.5 passing yards
−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 170.4 passing yards per game over his last five, 17.5% below the 206.5 line.
- Nix stayed under in three of those five games, including 107 and 123 yards.
- Denver's offense ranks at -0.095 EPA/play; Kansas City's defense is -0.086 EPA/play allowed.
- Two of Nix's last five games cleared 206.5, including 222 yards last week.
First-half total over 20.5 points
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- [DERIVED REFERENCE] Full-game Pinnacle total 41.5 scaled to a scripted 52% first-half share gives 21.58 points, 1.08 above the 20.5 rung; this is not flat halving.
- [SHARP REFERENCE] DraftKings directly quotes first-half over 20.5 at -102, confirming the same threshold family; my script-weighted estimate is 54%.
- KC's -0.0855 and Denver's -0.0492 defensive EPA allowed are both positive suppression signals against an over.
Courtland Sutton under 3.5 receptions
−100%Lost
Taken at −145 on DraftKings
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- L5: 5-0 under (100%); L10: 8-2 (80%); 2026 season: 7-0 (100%), with no pushes.
- 2026 average is 2.3 receptions versus 3.5, a 34.3% directional gap; L5 average is 2.2.
- Last five target counts were 5, 3, 3, 6, and 7, while receptions were 3, 2, 2, 1, and 3; the workload is supported but conversion has stayed low.
- The last three Chiefs meetings produced 2, 4, and 4 receptions: only 1-2 under 3.5, a meaningful contrary H2H signal.
Bo Nix under 20.5 pass completions
+100%Won
Taken at +100 on DraftKings
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- L5: 4-1 under (80%); L10: 6-4 (60%); 2026 season: 5-2 (71%).
- Season average is 18.4 completions versus 20.5, a 10.2% directional gap; L5 average is 18.0.
- Last three games were 15, 17, and 16 completions; Denver's 2026 pass rate is 54.9%.
- Bo Nix's last three comparable Chiefs meetings were 17, 26, and 24 completions: only 1-2 under.
Game total under 41.5
2.04x49¢
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
+104% profit if it wins
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Directional check: backing under, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- ProphetX is the only reference; this venue-self-reference read has no independent sharp confirmation.
Total points under 41.5
2.04x49¢
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
+104% profit if it wins
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- SHARP REFERENCE, Pinnacle also posted under 41.5 at +101.
- 2026 regular-season offenses: Kansas City +0.0246 EPA/play and Denver -0.0954, with success rates of 46.7% and 39.4%.
- Both defenses are negative in EPA allowed: Kansas City -0.0855 and Denver -0.0492; the matchup is more defense-shaped than the total suggests.
- Most likely loss: Kansas City's 23.8 points/game and Denver's 20.6 points/game baseline combine with defensive injuries to reach 42+.